NewEnergyNews: TODAY’S STUDY: A View Of Renewables

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Gleanings from the web and the world, condensed for convenience, illustrated for enlightenment, arranged for impact...

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While the OFFICE of President remains in highest regard at NewEnergyNews, this administration's position on climate change makes it impossible to regard THIS president with respect. Below is the NewEnergyNews theme song until 2020.

The challenge now: To make every day Earth Day.

YESTERDAY

  • Weekend Video: Global Warming In A Cold Winter
  • Weekend Video: New Energy Jobs Booming
  • Weekend Video: Cities Unite In Climate Fight
  • THE DAY BEFORE

  • FRIDAY WORLD HEADLINE-What’s Happening And What To Do About It
  • FRIDAY WORLD HEADLINE-World Ocean Wind To Quadruple by 2025
  • FRIDAY WORLD HEADLINE-Toward Europe’s Solar 3.0
  • FRIDAY WORLD HEADLINE-Storage For New Energy To Boom
  • THE DAY BEFORE THE DAY BEFORE

    THINGS-TO-THINK-ABOUT THURSDAY, January 11:

  • TTTA Thursday-Climate Change Is The Biggest Terrorist Of All
  • TTTA Thursday-Nuke Flop Sets So. Carolina Solar In Flight
  • TTTA Thursday-Denmark Demonstrates Year Of 43.6% Power From Wind Works
  • TTTA Thursday-Two Breakthroughs For Growing EVs
  • THE DAY BEFORE THAT

  • ORIGINAL REPORTING: What's Missing From The 100% Renewable Energy Debate
  • ORIGINAL REPORTING: New Direction For The Debate Over Cost Shift And Value Of Solar
  • THE LAST DAY UP HERE

  • TODAY’S STUDY: The UK’s Record-Breaking New Energy Boom
  • QUICK NEWS, January 9: Interior Dept. Trades Public Lands For Profits; Energy Dept Plan To Boost Coal And Nukes Bloocked; Southeast Utility Giant Misguided on New Energy
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    Founding Editor Herman K. Trabish

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    Some details about NewEnergyNews and the man behind the curtain: Herman K. Trabish, Agua Dulce, CA., Doctor with my hands, Writer with my head, Student of New Energy and Human Experience with my heart

    email: herman@NewEnergyNews.net

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  • TODAY AT NewEnergyNews, January 15:

  • TODAY’S STUDY: States Step In On Utilities' Energy Plans
  • QUICK NEWS, January 15: “Stupendously” Expensive Climate Change; New Energy Almost half Of 2017’s New U.S. Generation; Record Competitive Prices For New Energy

    Tuesday, August 22, 2017

    TODAY’S STUDY: A View Of Renewables

    Future of renewables: a radical disruption

    9 August 2017 (WoodMackenzie)

    The oil market downturn and the tone set by the Paris Agreement have already shifted the focus away from fossil fuels, but how quickly could we see the tides change and decisively tip the scales to renewables?

    Together with GTM Research, a Wood Mackenzie company focused on researching decarbonisation and the decentralisation of energy, we’ve created our carbon-constrained scenario. This is an alternative path to the future that focuses on the consistent, marginal change that will disrupt established markets long before a wholesale switch away from hydrocarbons occurs.

    The most striking aspect of our carbon-constrained scenario is long-term, double-digit growth for renewable energy , specifically wind and solar power. Combined, these two sources currently supply approximately 8% of the world's power demand needs but will supply 30% in 2035 — constituting a seven-fold increase in the size of the renewables market. This will be driven by a dramatic fall in the costs of wind and solar capacity, as well as the cost of energy storage.

    Wind and solar also cut coal's contribution by 30%, almost obviate the need for new nuclear and eventually curtail gas. Because short-term energy storage technologies enjoy significant overlap with EV batteries, we expect that a feedback loop will develop as adoption of both accelerates, further driving down costs.

    The transportation and petrochemicals sectors currently command approximately 79% of global oil demand, with the remainder consumed in industry and the residential/commercial arena. Under the carbon-constrained scenario, we remain confident that petrochemical demand growth will still remain positive, although to a lesser degree than in our base case. But the transport sector’s adoption of EVs will seriously disrupt oil demand.

    In 2017, EVs are attracting increasing attention, but they remain a niche market. However, the falling cost of EVs and their batteries will put EV purchase prices on par with ICE vehicles, and automakers are responding to this trend by developing new EVs. If this continues, we see EVs accounting for 21% of the global car stock by 2035.

    Although this is still less than a quarter of the global vehicle fleet, EVs will threaten the status quo in two ways: displacing oil demand as the EV fleet size increases and forcing ICEs to become more efficient as consumers demand comparable running costs from legacy engine types. Following exponential growth in EV use, we see oil demand hitting its peak by 2025 before declining.

    A paradigm shift could arrive long before oil demand peaks in 2025. After President Trump announced his intent to withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement, other countries, US states, cities and global corporations reaffirmed their commitment to curtailing emissions growth.

    Meanwhile, momentum is building within business to adapt to a changing world. Dormant for a decade, carbon has resurfaced as a critical concern in the boardrooms around the world. The downturn spurred the majors into focusing on renewables to build diversity and optionality into portfolios and best position themselves in today’s radically different energy landscape.

    While we consider the Paris Agreement’s 2° C world impossible to achieve given current technology, pressure to do more — for governments and energy companies alike —would lead to a future that’s much closer to our carbon-constrained scenario than many would expect. Through consistent changes in consumer preferences and carbon policies, renewables and other low-carbon technologies could radically disrupt the energy landscape far sooner than expected.

    This research was prepared in partnership with GTM Research, a Wood Mackenzie Business. GTM Research is the premier market intelligence provider for the decarbonisation and decentralization of energy.

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