TODAY’S STUDY: WHAT SOLAR DID LAST YEAR AND WHAT IT CAN DO

Henry Ford built his first car in a garage and took the engine into his kitchen to work on it during the winter. Ford Motors is the result.

The solar energy industry has grown beyond the kitchen and the garage – and it is still growing like gangbusters. It had a big year in 2010 – and that was before the Fukushima disaster turned up the dial on New Energy. The report highlighted below offers numbers that affirm booming growth.

U.S. PV installations doubled in 2010. Utility installations quadrupled. Water heating systems grew ahead of new incentive programs and solar power plants continued moving toward market viability.

One industry publication recently suggested solar energy may be the fastest growing industry in the world.

A curious aspect of the solar energy industry is its many competing technologies. This is often judged a sign of an industry’s immaturity. For sun, that is only part of the story.

The biggest solar technology divide is between photovoltaic (PV) technologies that capture the sun’s light (photo) and turn it into electricity (voltaic) and concentrating solar power (CSP) technologies that capture the sun’s heat and turn it into mechanical power that generates electricity.

There are alternatives within those competing concepts. PV panels maybe be plates that use silicon or thin films of various chemical formulations. There is a type of PV panel best for residential rooftops, another that is probably better for big boxes and either of them, or another type of panel, might be best for large ground mounted systems. The bigger systems may or may not use tracking technology to keep the panels facing the sun.

Solar water heating systems require no panels but pass the water through sun-exposed tubes to capture heat, then run the hot water through pipes into a building’s standard water tank and plumbing system.

The several versions of PV and CSP solar power plants may use panels or flat mirrors or curved mirrors and may have the capacity to store energy, or not, and may use a variety of heat sensitive chemicals or water or neither.

There is also Concentrating Photovoltaic (CPV) technology. Each CPV panel has a tiny mirror that applies CSP technology and the panels are set out in arrays as small as a rooftop or as large as a power plant.

The lab monkeys haven’t quit yet, either. At Berkley, Cal Tech and MIT, people are looking up at the sun’s abundance and wondering if there isn’t a better way to do what nature does in a plant that turns sunlight and the gases floating around in the air into New Energy.

And in garages around the country, people are still tinkering with panels and mirrors and wondering at the miracle of light.

Henry Ford’s Model T was such a success that it dominated the auto marketplace through most of the first three decades of the automobile age. Ford mass-produced his car in one version and would not even offer different colors. (The joke was that it came in any color as long as it was black.)

But times changed. People found new applications for the internal combustion engine. Ford eventually had to make trucks and tractors and offer luxury options and economy models. The Ford empire fumbled with the Edsel and hit a home run with the F-150. It is behind the curve with its EV, but it will soon bring a selection of them to the marketplace because the company long ago discovered it cannot ignore the variety of opportunities.

The solar industry is young but it is forward-leaning. It is doing a lot of growing and has a lot of growing to do but it is readying a variety of applications to meet this ceaselessly evolving world’s irrepressibly multivarious and always new demands and seize its opportunities.

U.S. Solar Market Trends 2010
Larry Sherwood, June 2011 (Interstate Renewable Energy Council)

Executive Summary

Solar markets are booming in the United States due to strong consumer demand and financial incentives from the federal government, states and utilities. Over 124,000 new solar heating, cooling, and solar electric installations were completed in 2010, an increase of 22% compared to the number of systems installed in 2009. The capacity of these installations is 981 MWDC for electricity production and 814 MWTH for thermal heating. The majority of the market share for each solar technology is concentrated in a few states. However, the number of states with a significant number of installations is growing.

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Photovoltaic trends:

! The capacity of photovoltaic (PV) installations completed in 2010 doubled compared to the capacity installed in 2009.

! PV capacity installed in 2010 quadrupled in the utility sector and grew by over 60% in the residential and non-residential sectors. State renewable portfolio requirements are an important reason for the large growth in the utility sector.

! The amount of PV capacity installed in Arizona, Colorado, Massachusetts, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, Pennsylvania and Texas installed in 2010 was at least double the capacity installed in each state in 2009. California remains the largest U.S. market, with about 28% of the U.S. installed capacity completed in 2010. However, this is a significant drop in market share from the 49% recorded in 2009.

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Solar heating and cooling trends:

! There were 6% more solar water heating installations (low temperature thermal) completed in 2010 than in 2009. Eighty four percent of these installations are in the residential sector.

! The capacity of solar pool heating installations increased by 13% in 2010 compared with 2009. However, the annual capacity of solar pool installations is still 30% below the peak achieved in 2006.

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Concentrating solar power trends:

! Two new concentrating solar power (CSP) plants were constructed in 2010, with a combined capacity of 76 MW. Most of this capacity was at a 75 MW Florida plant that was the largest U.S. CSP installation since 1991.

Over the near term, the prospect for growth in solar installations is bright. Early indicators point to continued market growth in 2011 due to the long-term extension of the federal solar investment tax credit (ITC), recent federal legislation that allows utilities to take advantage of the ITC, and a deadline to start construction by the end of 2011 to participate in the federal cash grant program. Companies have announced plans for many large solar electric projects, including both PV and CSP projects. Some of these projects are under construction and will come on-line between 2011 and 2014.

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Introduction

Different solar energy technologies create energy for different end uses. Two solar technologies, photovoltaics (PV) and concentrating solar power (CSP), produce electricity. A third technology, solar thermal collectors, produces heat for water heating, space heating or cooling, pool heating or process heat.

Photovoltaic cells are semi-conductor devices that generate electricity when exposed to the sun. Manufacturers assemble the cells into modules, which can be installed on buildings, parking structures or in ground-mounted arrays. PV was invented in the 1950s and first used to power satellites. As PV prices declined, PV systems were installed in many off-grid installations — installations not connected to the utility grid. In the last decade, and especially in the last several years, grid connected installations have become the largest sector for PV installations.

Concentrating solar power (CSP) systems use mirrors and collecting receivers to heat a fluid to a high temperature (from 300°F to more than 1,000°F), and then run the heat extracted from the fluid through a traditional turbine power generator or Stirling engine. CSP can also be paired with existing or new traditional power plants, providing high-temperature heat into the thermal cycle. These generating stations typically produce bulk power on the utility side of the meter rather than generating electricity on the customer side of the meter. CSP plants were first installed in the United States in the early 1980s, and installations continued through the early 1990s. Although many of these installations still generate power today, few new systems had been installed since the early 1990s until recently. Installations have resumed, with one large plant constructed in 2010 and a significant number of announcements for new plants projected to be completed between 2011-2015. In another application, concentrating solar thermal can provide high temperature solar process heat for industrial or commercial applications. A few systems are installed each year using this technology.

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Solar thermal energy is used to heat water, to heat and cool buildings, and to heat swimming pools. A variety of flat plate, evacuated tube and concentrating collector technologies produce the heat needed for these applications. Solar water heating systems were common in Southern California in the early 1900s before the introduction of natural gas. Many systems were sold in the United States in the late 1970s and early 1980s. In the mid-1980s, the expiration of federal solar tax credits and the crash of energy prices led to an industry slow-down.

This report provides public data on U.S. solar installations by technology, state and market sector. Public data on solar installations help industry, government and non-profit organizations improve their efforts to increase the number (and capacity) of solar installations across the United States. Analysis of multi-year installation trends and state installation data helps these stakeholders learn more about state solar markets and evaluate the effectiveness of marketing, financial incentives and education initiatives. In addition, these data allow for a better understanding of the environmental and economic impact of solar installations.

For all solar technologies, the United States is only a small part of a robust world solar market. Product availability and pricing generally reflect this status. Germany is the top market for PV, Spain is the top market for CSP, and China is the largest market for solar thermal collectors. The grid-connected PV market in Ontario, Canada, ranks as one of the largest markets in North America. Ontario’s market is discussed…Other than Ontario’s market, this report does not analyze markets outside the United States…

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Prospects for 2011

What can we expect in U.S. solar markets this year? Early indicators point to continued grid-connected PV growth and the continuation of the 2010 trend of higher growth rates for utility sector installations. Reductions in PV modules prices, long-term extension of the federal ITC, new rules that allow electric utilities to use the ITC and the continuation of the cash grant alternative to the commercial ITC will all help drive market growth. In addition, improved capital availability will allow customers to take advantage of these financial incentives.

Companies have announced plans for many large solar projects, including solar thermal electric projects, utility owned projects and third party-owned projects. Some of these projects will be completed in 2011, and many more will start construction in 2011 to take advantage of the federal cash grant program. Completion of these later projects will likely occur in 2012 and 2015.

Prices for PV modules fell in 2009 and 2010, and many analysts expect prices to continue to fall in 2011. Lower PV prices increase the potential of installations in states without state or local incentives. The number of states with strong markets continues to grow, although installations in 2011 will continue to be concentrated in states with strong financial incentives. Strong solar policies remain critical to market growth.

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Conclusion

Solar markets continue to grow in the United States due to consumer interest in green technologies, concern about energy prices, and financial incentives available from the federal government, states, local governments and utilities. Over 124,000 solar installations were completed in 2010. The markets for each solar technology are concentrated in a few states.

Led by a quadrupling of utility sector installations, the capacity of new grid-connected PV installations doubled in 2010 compared with the number installed in 2009. The two largest PV systems installed in 2010 together accounted for 9% of the annual installed PV capacity. The PV market is expanding to more states, and installations doubled in more than nine states. California remains the largest market.

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Solar water heating installations have grown moderately since the enhanced federal ITC took effect in 2006 and grew by an additional 6% in 2010. Solar pool heating grew by 13%, the largest growth in a number of years.

A 75 MW CSP plant in Florida marked the largest such installation in the U.S. since 1991. The future prospects for CSP look bright, with thousands of megawatts of installations planned for the next five years.

U.S. market growth will continue in 2011, especially for grid connected PV installations. Federal and state policies will drive this accelerated market growth.