TODAY’S STUDY: A PLAN TO WIRE THE WEST

10-Year Regional Transmission Plan
September 2011 (Western Electricity Coordinating Council)

Executive Summary

The Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) 10-Year Regional Transmission Plan (Plan) is an Interconnection-wide perspective on 1) expected future transmission and generation in the Western Interconnection, 2) what transmission capacity may be needed under a variety of futures, and 3) other related insights. The objective of the Plan is to provide information to stakeholders for their decision-making processes regarding where and when to build new transmission or take other related actions to help ensure the Western Interconnection is reliable, low-cost, efficient, and environmentally sound. In support of this objective, WECC’s analyses are aimed toward:

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• understanding transmission system needs over a broad range of potential futures;

• recognizing the potential economic benefits of transmission expansion, and;

• identifying transmission additions that, if foregone or delayed, will result in diminished opportunities to realize infrastructure benefits over a likely range of futures.

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The Plan is informational in nature and is intended to advise and guide, rather than instruct. WECC does not have authority or jurisdiction over the construction of transmission lines, nor does WECC have any authority or jurisdiction over siting, permitting, or cost-allocation.

The Transmission Expansion Planning Policy Committee (TEPPC), a WECC Board of Directors (WECC Board) committee, guides the Regional Transmission Expansion Planning (RTEP) process that was used to create the Plan. RTEP is funded, in part, by a grant from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). The RTEP process is a bottom-up process with information flowing to TEPPC from stakeholders throughout the Western Interconnection. WECC would like to express its sincere appreciation to the many individuals and organizations that have contributed to the Plan. The volunteers who comprised the RTEP committees and workgroups have been fundamental in assuring that the best information was made available, comprehensive analysis was performed, and thorough review was conducted.

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The Plan represents the continuing evolution of WECC’s planning activities. This is WECC’s first Interconnection-wide transmission plan and was produced in the using a broad stakeholder process. The Plan’s limitations are based on the modeling capabilities, granularity of assumptions, and level of detail of the analyses performed.

The following are key assumptions regarding load, generation, and transmission that are germane to the observations and recommendations described in the Plan.

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• The Plan assumes all 44 regionally-significant transmission projects identified in the Foundational Projects List will be completed by 2020. These projects add roughly 5,500 miles of transmission lines to the Western Interconnection.

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• The Plan assumes retired and added generation will be sufficient to obtain full compliance with enacted State Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) and Once-Through-Cooling (OTC) regulations in California.

• The Plan assumes that enacted energy efficiency (EE) and Demand-Side Management (DSM) programs will be fully realized.

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Given these assumptions, there are key regional transmission insights in the Plan.

• There are a number of regional transmission projects (further described in Section 4.1), coupled with changes to renewable generation assumptions, that have the potential to reduce the cost of meeting the RPS by accessing renewable resources that are located remote to major load centers.

• The assumed transmission additions provide sufficient transmission capacity in the Plan’s Expected Future network to enable the Western Interconnection to meet its load and RPS requirements over the next 10-year planning period.1

• Two transmission paths – Montana to Northwest and the Pacific-Tie Paths – merit further evaluation for possible upgrades or expansion based on the levels of utilization and congestion that were observed in the Plan analyses. The future evaluation of these and other paths should consider impacts on reliability, system costs, economic benefits, market demand, and environmental considerations.

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Expanding on these insights, the Plan includes the following observations and recommendations based on the analyses performed and stakeholder input.

1. Cost-effective remote renewable resources – Section 4.1

Some long-distance transmission to access remote renewable resources appears to be cost-effective when compared to some of the local renewable generation assumed in the Plan’s Expected Future. Based on the high level of analysis performed, results from the resource relocation plus transmission expansion alternatives evaluated as part of the 10-year planning studies suggest total cost savings result under the alternative resource futures when compared with generation assumed in the Expected Future case.

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2. Montana to Northwest (Path 8) – Section 4.2

The utilization of and congestion on the Montana to Northwest transmission path (Path 8) remain consistently high and increase under a variety of conditions (e.g., renewable generation relocation in Montana) analyzed in the 10-year planning studies. WECC recommends consideration by decision-makers for transmission upgrades or other mitigating measures that relieve congestion on Path 8 as renewable or other types of generation are expanded in Montana.

3. Pacific-Tie Paths (Paths 65, 66) – Section 4.3

The utilization of and congestion on the Pacific DC Intertie (Path 65) and California-Oregon Intertie (Path 66) continue to increase under most conditions analyzed in support of the Plan. WECC recommends consideration by decision-makers for transmission upgrades or other mitigating measures that relieve congestion on Paths 65 and 66.

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4. Operational impacts of variable generation– Section 4.4

All of the cases analyzed in 10-year planning studies had high levels of variable generation. This caused significant and unprecedented levels of conventional generation ramping and cycling in the production cost models (PCM) used to complete the studies. WECC recommends that future transmission and resource planning studies at all levels include a comprehensive review of variable integration issues. The review should also include an identification of how recent-related activities (e.g., energy imbalance market, intra-hour scheduling) can reduce operational impacts of variable generation.

5. Planning cooperation – Section 4.5

WECC recommends decision-makers accept the challenges of increased regional cooperation in transmission planning and development. WECC recognizes that integrated resource planning (IRP), RPS statues, generation procurement, and DSM policies are state- and provincial-centered. However, results presented in the Plan suggest there are opportunities for regional transmission and renewable resource development that should not be overlooked as states implement their own energy policies. Local and state jurisdictions should consider the compatibility of these opportunities with pertinent energy policies so as not to forego potential economic and environmental benefits that may accrue to their ratepayers.

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6. Environmental and cultural considerations in planning processes – Section 4.6

As part of the RTEP project, the Scenario Planning Steering Group (SPSG) Environmental Data Task Force (EDTF) conducted a case study of selected transmission projects. The task force interviewed dozens of stakeholders to further understand how environmental information might be incorporated into regional transmission planning. The EDTF created a classification of land areas describing four tiers of suitability with respect to environmental and cultural constraints and sensitivities. It also provided recommendations on how these tiers can be incorporated into future RTEP processes. The EDTF produced an environmental and cultural data catalog for use in transmission planning processes.

7. Water resource impacts on the future generation mix – Section 4.7

The Western Governors’ Association (WGA), along with the Western States Water Council and a consortium of national laboratories conducted a case study in which they compared water withdraw and consumption of various RTEP study cases. In future RTEP cycles, the WGA will provide information on water supply constraints, drought, and climate change in order to assist WECC in evaluating the impacts and options for electric generation in transmission planning activities.

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8. Future regional transmission planning processes – Section 4.8

Great strides have been made recently in regional planning processes, but opportunities to improve the RTEP process exist. TEPPC intends to make the following enhancements to the RTEP process.

• Define a common set of key questions to be answered in the next set of regional transmission plans. This will be accomplished through discussions and other forums with utilities, policy-makers, utility regulators, permitting agencies, and other key stakeholders.

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• Develop a list of questions regarding proposed transmission projects to better understand the project purpose and other parameters of the stages of transmission project development, and post the information to WECC’s Transmission Project Information Portal.

• Expand WECC’s analytic capabilities and activities to assure the future regional transmission plans continue to support stakeholders’ needs.

• Encourage greater stakeholder participation in defining load, generation, and transmission assumptions used to construct regional transmission planning studies. Identify and evaluate the challenges of integrating the variable generation assumed in the Plan and identify possible options to address the challenges.