NewEnergyNews: TODAY’S STUDY: IPCC SAYS NEW ENERGY IS THE ANSWER TO CLIMATE CHANGE/

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YESTERDAY

THINGS-TO-THINK-ABOUT WEDNESDAY, August 23:

  • TTTA Wednesday-ORIGINAL REPORTING: The IRA And The New Energy Boom
  • TTTA Wednesday-ORIGINAL REPORTING: The IRA And the EV Revolution
  • THE DAY BEFORE

  • Weekend Video: Coming Ocean Current Collapse Could Up Climate Crisis
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    WEEKEND VIDEOS, July 15-16:

  • Weekend Video: The Truth About China And The Climate Crisis
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  • Weekend Video: The 9-1-1 On Rooftop Solar
  • THE DAY BEFORE THAT

    WEEKEND VIDEOS, July 8-9:

  • Weekend Video: Bill Nye Science Guy On The Climate Crisis
  • Weekend Video: The Changes Causing The Crisis
  • Weekend Video: A “Massive Global Solar Boom” Now
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    WEEKEND VIDEOS, July 1-2:

  • The Global New Energy Boom Accelerates
  • Ukraine Faces The Climate Crisis While Fighting To Survive
  • Texas Heat And Politics Of Denial
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    Founding Editor Herman K. Trabish

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  • The Virtual Power Plant Boom, Part 1
  • The Virtual Power Plant Boom, Part 2

    Monday, November 14, 2011

    TODAY’S STUDY: IPCC SAYS NEW ENERGY IS THE ANSWER TO CLIMATE CHANGE

    Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation (SRREN)
    Ottmar Edenhofer, Ramon Pichs‐Madruga, Youba Sokona, Kristin Seyboth, Approved May 2011 (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Working Group III)

    Introduction

    The Working Group III Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation (SRREN) presents an assessment of the literature on the scientific, technological, environmental, economic and social aspects of the contribution of six renewable energy (RE) sources to the mitigation of climate change. It is intended to provide policy relevant information to governments, intergovernmental processes and other interested parties. This Summary for Policymakers provides an overview of the SRREN, summarizing the essential findings. The SRREN consists of 11 chapters. Chapter 1 sets the context for RE and climate change; Chapters 2 through 7 provide information on six RE technologies, and Chapters 8 through 11 address integrative issues (see Figure SPM.1).

    References to chapters and sections are indicated with corresponding chapter and section numbers in square brackets. An explanation of terms, acronyms and chemical symbols used in this SPM can be found in the glossary of the SRREN (Annex I). Conventions and methodologies for determining costs, primary energy and other topics of analysis can be found in Annex II and Annex III. This report communicates uncertainty where relevant.1

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    Renewable energy and climate change

    Demand for energy and associated services, to meet social and economic development and improve human welfare and health, is increasing. All societies require energy services to meet basic human needs (e.g., lighting, cooking, space comfort, mobility and communication) and to serve productive processes. [1.1.1, 9.3.2] Since approximately 1850, global use of fossil fuels (coal, oil and gas) has increased to dominate energy supply, leading to a rapid growth in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions [Figure 1.6].

    Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions resulting from the provision of energy services have contributed significantly to the historic increase in atmospheric GHG concentrations. The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) concluded that “Most of the observed increase in global average temperature since the mid-20th century is very likely2 due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.”

    Recent data confirm that consumption of fossil fuels accounts for the majority of global anthropogenic GHG emissions.3 Emissions continue to grow and CO2 concentrations had increased to over 390 ppm, or 39% above preindustrial levels, by the end of 2010. [1.1.1, 1.1.3]

    There are multiple options for lowering GHG emissions from the energy system while still satisfying the global demand for energy services. [1.1.3, 10.1] Some of these possible options, such as energy conservation and efficiency, fossil fuel switching, RE, nuclear and carbon capture and storage (CCS) were assessed in the AR4. A comprehensive evaluation of any portfolio of mitigation options would involve an evaluation of their respective mitigation potential as well as their contribution to sustainable development and all associated risks and costs. [1.1.6] This report will concentrate on the role that the deployment of RE technologies can play within such a portfolio of mitigation options.

    As well as having a large potential to mitigate climate change, RE can provide wider benefits. RE may, if implemented properly, contribute to social and economic development, energy access, a secure energy supply, and reducing negative impacts on the environment and health. [9.2, 9.3]

    Under most conditions, increasing the share of RE in the energy mix will require policies to stimulate changes in the energy system. Deployment of RE technologies has increased rapidly in recent years, and their share is projected to increase substantially under most ambitious mitigation scenarios [1.1.5, 10.2]. Additional policies would be required to attract the necessary increases in investment in technologies and infrastructure [11.4.3, 11.5, 11.6.1, 11.7.5].

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    Renewable energy technologies and markets

    RE comprises a heterogeneous class of technologies…On a global basis, it is estimated that RE accounted for 12.9% of the total 492 Exajoules (EJ)5 of primary energy supply in 2008…Deployment of RE has been increasing rapidly in recent years…Of the approximate 300 GW of new electricity generating capacity added globally over the two year period from 2008 to 2009, 140 GW came from RE additions. Collectively, developing countries host 53% of global RE electricity generation capacity…The global technical potential7 of RE sources will not limit continued growth in the use of RE…Climate change will have impacts on the size and geographic distribution of the technical potential for RE sources, but research into the magnitude of these possible effects is nascent…The levelized cost of energy8 for many RE technologies is currently higher than existing energy prices, though in various settings RE is already economically competitive…Monetizing the external costs of energy supply would improve the relative competitiveness of RE…The cost of most RE technologies has declined and additional expected technical advances would result in further cost reductions…A variety of technology-specific challenges (in addition to cost) may need to be addressed to enable RE to significantly upscale its contribution to reducing GHG emissions…

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    Integration into present and future energy systems

    Various RE resources are already being successfully integrated into energy supply systems [8.2] and into end-use sectors…The characteristics of different RE sources can influence the scale of the integration challenge…Integrating RE into most existing energy supply systems and end-use sectors at an accelerated rate—leading to higher shares of RE—is technologically feasible, though will result in a number of additional challenges…The costs and challenges of integrating increasing shares of RE into an existing energy supply system depend on the current share of RE, the availability and characteristics of RE resources, the system characteristics, and how the system evolves and develops in the future.

    • RE can be integrated into all types of electricity systems, from large inter-connected continental-scale grids [8.2.1] down to small stand-alone systems and individual buildings…As the penetration of variable RE sources increases, maintaining system reliability may become more challenging and costly…

    • District heating systems…District cooling…[with] Thermal storage capability and flexible cogeneration can overcome supply and demand variability challenges as well as provide demand response for electricity systems…• In gas distribution grids, injecting biomethane, or in the future, RE-derived hydrogen and synthetic natural gas, can be achieved for a range of applications…• Liquid fuel systems can integrate biofuels for transport applications or for cooking and heating applications…There are multiple pathways for increasing the shares of RE across all end-use sectors. The ease of integration varies depending on region, characteristics specific to the sector and the technology…• For transport, liquid and gaseous biofuels are already and are expected to continue to be integrated into the fuel supply systems of a growing number of countries…• In the building sector, RE technologies can be integrated into both new and existing structures to produce electricity, heating and cooling…• Agriculture as well as food and fibre process industries often use biomass to meet direct heat and power demands on-site. They can also be net exporters of surplus fuels, heat, and electricity to adjacent supply systems…

    The costs associated with RE integration, whether for electricity, heating, cooling gaseous or liquid fuels, are contextual, site-specific and generally difficult to determine…In order to accommodate high RE shares, energy systems will need to evolve and be adapted…As infrastructure and energy systems develop, in spite of the complexities, there are few, if any, fundamental technological limits to integrating a portfolio of RE technologies to meet a majority share of total energy demand in locations where suitable RE resources exist or can be supplied. However, the actual rate of integration and the resulting shares of RE will be influenced by factors such as costs, policies, environmental issues and social aspects…

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    Renewable energy and sustainable development

    Historically, economic development has been strongly correlated with increasing energy use and growth of GHG emissions, and RE can help decouple that correlation, contributing to sustainable development (SD).. RE can contribute to social and economic development…RE can help accelerate access to energy, particularly for the 1.4 billion people without access to electricity and the additional 1.3 billion using traditional biomass…RE options can contribute to a more secure energy supply, although specific challenges for integration must be considered..In addition to reduced GHG emissions, RE technologies can provide other important environmental benefits. Maximizing these benefits depends on the specific technology, management, and site characteristics associated with each RE project.

    …Lifecycle assessments (LCA) for electricity generation indicate that GHG emissions from RE technologies are, in general, significantly lower than those associated with fossil fuel options, and in a range of conditions, less than fossil fuels employing CCS… Most current bioenergy systems, including liquid biofuels, result in GHG emission reductions, and most biofuels produced through new processes (also called advanced biofuels or next-generation biofuels) could provide higher GHG mitigation. The GHG balance may be affected by land use changes and corresponding emissions and removals… The sustainability of bioenergy, in particular in terms of lifecycle GHG emissions, is influenced by land and biomass resource management practices… RE technologies, in particular non-combustion based options, can offer benefits with respect to air pollution and related health concerns… Water availability could influence choice of RE technology… Site-specific conditions will determine the degree to which RE technologies impact biodiversity… RE technologies have low fatality rates…

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    Mitigation potentials and costs

    A significant increase in the deployment of RE by 2030, 2050 and beyond is indicated in the majority of the 164 scenarios reviewed in this Special Report.11 In 2008, total RE production was roughly 64 EJ/yr (12.9% of total primary energy supply) with more than 30 EJ/yr of this being traditional biomass. More than 50% of the scenarios project levels of RE deployment in 2050 of more than 173 EJ/yr reaching up to over 400 EJ/yr in some cases (Figure SPM.9). Given that traditional biomass use decreases in most scenarios, a corresponding increase in the production level of RE (excluding traditional biomass) anywhere from roughly three-fold to more than ten-fold is projected. The global primary energy supply share of RE differs substantially among the scenarios. More than half of the scenarios show a contribution from RE in excess of a 17% share of primary energy supply in 2030 rising to more than 27% in 2050. The scenarios with the highest RE shares reach approximately 43% in 2030 and 77% in 2050. [10.2, 10.3]

    RE can be expected to expand even under baseline scenarios. Most baseline scenarios show RE deployments significantly above the 2008 level of 64 EJ/yr and up to 120 EJ/yr by 2030. By 2050, many baseline scenarios reach RE deployment levels of more than 100 EJ/yr and in some cases up to about 250 EJ/yr (Figure SPM.9). These baseline deployment levels result from a range of assumptions, including, for example, continued demand growth for energy services throughout the century, the ability of RE to contribute to increased energy access and the limited long-term availability of fossil resources. Other assumptions (e.g., improved costs and performance of RE technologies) render RE technologies increasingly economically competitive in many applications even in the absence of climate policy. [10.2]

    RE deployment significantly increases in scenarios with low GHG stabilization concentrations. Low GHG stabilization scenarios lead on average to higher RE deployment compared to the baseline. However, for any given long-term GHG concentration goal, the scenarios exhibit a wide range of RE deployment levels (Figure SPM.9). In scenarios that stabilize the atmospheric CO2 concentrations at a level of less than 440 ppm, the median RE deployment level in 2050 is 248 EJ/yr (139 in 2030), with the highest levels reaching 428 EJ/yr by 2050 (252 in 2030). [10.2]

    Many combinations of low-carbon energy supply options and energy efficiency improvements can contribute to given low GHG concentration levels, with RE becoming the dominant lowcarbon energy supply option by 2050 in the majority of scenarios. This wide range of results originates in assumptions about factors such as developments in RE technologies (including bioenergy with CCS) and their associated resource bases and costs; the comparative attractiveness of other mitigation options (e.g., end-use energy efficiency, nuclear energy, fossil energy with CCS); patterns of consumption and production; fundamental drivers of energy services demand (including future population and economic growth); the ability to integrate variable RE sources into power grids; fossil fuel resources; specific policy approaches to mitigation; and emissions trajectories towards long-term concentration levels. [10.2]

    The scenario review in this Special Report indicates that RE has a large potential to mitigate GHG emissions. Four illustrative scenarios span a range of global cumulative CO2 savings between 2010 and 2050, from about 220 to 560 Gt CO2 compared to about 1,530 Gt cumulative fossil and industrial CO2 emissions in the IEA World Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Scenario during the same period. The precise attribution of mitigation potentials to RE depends on the role scenarios attribute to specific mitigation technologies, on complex system behaviours and, in particular, on the energy sources that RE displaces. Therefore, attribution of precise mitigation potentials to RE should be viewed with appropriate caution. [10.2, 10.3, 10.4]

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    Scenarios generally indicate that growth in RE will be widespread around the world. Although the precise distribution of RE deployment among regions varies substantially across scenarios, the scenarios are largely consistent in indicating widespread growth in RE deployment around the globe. In addition, the total RE deployment is higher over the long term in the group of non-Annex I countries12 than in the group of Annex I countries in most scenarios (Figure SPM.10). [10.2, 10.3]

    Scenarios do not indicate an obvious single dominant RE technology at a global level; in addition, the global overall technical potentials do not constrain the future contribution of RE. Although the contribution of RE technologies varies across scenarios, modern biomass, wind and direct solar commonly make up the largest contributions of RE technologies to the energy system by 2050 (Figure SPM.11). All scenarios assessed confirm that technical potentials will not be the limiting factors for the expansion of RE at a global scale. Despite significant technological and regional differences, in the four illustrative scenarios less than 2.5% of the global available technical RE potential is used. [10.2, 10.3]

    Individual studies indicate that if RE deployment is limited, mitigation costs increase and low GHG concentration stabilizations may not be achieved. A number of studies have pursued scenario sensitivities that assume constraints on the deployment of individual mitigation options, including RE as well as nuclear and fossil energy with CCS. There is little agreement on the precise magnitude of the cost increase. [10.2]

    A transition to a low-GHG economy with higher shares of RE would imply increasing investments in technologies and infrastructure. The four illustrative scenarios analyzed in detail in the SRREN estimate global cumulative RE investments (in the power generation sector only) ranging from USD2005 1,360 to 5,100 billion for the decade 2011 to 2020, and from USD2005 1,490 to 7,180 billion for the decade 2021 to 2030. The lower values refer to the IEA World Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Scenario and the higher ones to a scenario that seeks to stabilize atmospheric CO2 (only) concentration at 450 ppm. The annual averages of these investment needs are all smaller than 1% of the world’s gross domestic product (GDP). Beyond differences in the design of the models used to investigate these scenarios, the range can be explained mainly by differences in GHG concentrations assessed and constraints imposed on the set of admissible mitigation technologies. Increasing the installed capacity of RE power plants will reduce the amount of fossil and nuclear fuels that otherwise would be needed in order to meet a given electricity demand. In addition to investment, operation and maintenance (O&M) and (where applicable) feedstock costs related to RE power plants, any assessment of the overall economic burden that is associated with their application will have to consider avoided fuel and substituted investment costs as well. Even without taking the avoided costs into account, the lower range of the RE power investments discussed above is lower than the respective investments reported for 2009. The higher values of the annual averages of the RE power sector investment approximately correspond to a five-fold increase in the current global investments in this field. [10.5, 11.2.2]

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    Policy, implementation and financing

    An increasing number and variety of RE policies—motivated by many factors—have driven escalated growth of RE technologies in recent years…Policies have promoted an increase in RE capacity installations by helping to overcome various barriers…Public R&D investments in RE technologies are most effective when complemented by other policy instruments, particularly deployment policies that simultaneously enhance demand for new technologies…Some policies have been shown to be effective and efficient in rapidly increasing RE deployment. However, there is no one-size-fits-all policy…

    • Several studies have concluded that some feed in tariffs have been effective and efficient at promoting RE electricity, mainly due to the combination of long-term fixed price or premium payments, network connections, and guaranteed purchase of all RE electricity generated. Quota policies can be effective and efficient if designed to reduce risk; for example, with long-term contracts…• An increasing number of governments are adopting fiscal incentives for RE heating and cooling…• In the transportation sector, RE fuel mandates or blending requirements are key drivers in the development of most modern biofuel industries. Other policies include direct government payments or tax reductions…The flexibility to adjust as technologies, markets and other factors evolve is important. The details of design and implementation are critical…

    …‘Enabling’ policies support RE development and deployment…Two separate market failures create the rationale for the additional support of innovative RE technologies that have high potential for technological development, even if an emission market (or GHG pricing policy in general) exists…The literature indicates that long-term objectives for RE and flexibility to learn from experience would be critical to achieve cost-effective and high penetrations of RE..

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    Advancing knowledge about renewable energy

    Enhanced scientific and engineering knowledge should lead to performance improvements and cost reductions in RE technologies. Additional knowledge related to RE and its role in GHG emissions reductions remains to be gained in a number of broad areas including…• Future cost and timing of RE deployment; • Realizable technical potential for RE at all geographical scales; • Technical and institutional challenges and costs of integrating diverse RE technologies into energy systems and markets; • Comprehensive assessments of socioeconomic and environmental aspects of RE and other energy technologies; • Opportunities for meeting the needs of developing countries with sustainable RE services; and • Policy, institutional and financial mechanisms to enable cost-effective deployment of RE in a wide variety of contexts.

    Knowledge about RE and its climate change mitigation potential continues to advance. The existing scientific knowledge is significant and can facilitate the decision-making process…

    1 Comments:

    At 11:35 AM, Anonymous Carl Schoder said...

    Dear Sirs:
    It is interesting to me that you, as most of the world, do not appear to be aware of the renewable energy source which is the cleanest and most abundant of all renewable energy sources, which is ammonia, THE OTHER HYDROGEN. The only groups that are aware of and doing work on ammonia as a fuel are the "Ammonia Fuel Association" and Iowa State University's Energy Department.

    Ammonia is made from nitrogen, water and electricity, preferably solar generated. When consumed it releases only nitrogen and water back into the, thus there is no depletion of natural resources. Only solar and other renewable energy sources are consumed.

    Refer to "http://www.nh3fuelassociation.org/" and "http://www.ucs.iastate.edu/mnet/nh3/level5.html".

    Carl Schoder

     

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