NewEnergyNews: CHEAPER AND CHEAPER SUN

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Gleanings from the web and the world, condensed for convenience, illustrated for enlightenment, arranged for impact...

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    Founding Editor Herman K. Trabish

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    Some details about NewEnergyNews and the man behind the curtain: Herman K. Trabish, Agua Dulce, CA., Doctor with my hands, Writer with my head, Student of New Energy and Human Experience with my heart

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  • MONDAY’S STUDY AT NewEnergyNews, April 12:
  • SoCalEdison’s Newest Plan To Mitigate Wildfires

    Sunday, January 29, 2012

    CHEAPER AND CHEAPER SUN

    Polysilicon Price Declines Will Continue Sector Shakeout, says GTM Research
    Mark Osborne, January 25, 2012 (PV-Tech via PV Group)

    "A new and detailed bottom-up analysis of the polysilicon industry by GTM Research further supports growing consensus that polysilicon prices will continue to set record lows in 2012 as they did in 2011 as overcapacity continues. Lower silicon prices in 2012 will likely lead to even lower c-Si module prices and force higher-cost poly producers to exit the market.

    "A key consequence of continued low polysilicon prices at or below US$30/kg is expected to see module manufacturers saving approximately US$0.20 per watt, which could bring module prices below US$0.70 per watt, according to GTM Research…"


    click to enlarge

    "…[M]ajor producers that have significant scale and high-purity products will survive in a low-priced environment, while small-scale producers will struggle to sell at or below US$30/kg, forcing the vast majority to shutter operations and causing many to exit the sector completely…GTM Research expects to see established players such as Hemlock Semiconductor, Wacker, GCL Solar, REC, OCI and Tokuyama to weather this extended period of pricing weakness...

    "…[O]versupply in the polysilicon market pushed the spot price of silicon down from US$80/kg in late March 2011 to under US$30/kg in December, representing a more than 60% price drop…[C]ontract renegotiations are inevitable. Average contract pricing was closer to US$50/kg in 3Q 2011, but the collapse in spot pricing will likely pull the contract pricing down sharply."

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