WHERE WORLD SOLAR IS GOING

Four Must-See Charts on the Future of the Global Solar Market; Who will be left standing when the dust settles?

Stephen Lacey, April 23, 2013 (Greentech Media)

“…[U]nexpected growth in global demand, particularly in European markets, helped keep many producers afloat..[until], in 2010 and 2011, we saw a surge of new manufacturing capacity -- much of it driven by China -- that created the structural oversupply faced by the industry today…[T]he delayed shake-out in the industry is now well underway…

“In 2010, when the period of irrational growth began in solar manufacturing, there were 357 active module producers…By the end of this year, that number will be down to 145. And in 2016, it will drop below one hundred…But global demand continues to grow as new markets open up and installation costs drop. Already, panel prices have begun to level out as the Chinese and Japanese markets speed up. At the end of 2013 and into 2014, the market will begin to rationalize and prices actually may start to rise…”

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“…[But] the average sales price in a ‘stable’ market for a Tier-1 Chinese module [will still only get to] $0.47 per watt…After a long period of dominance, Europe finally cedes its leadership to Asia in 2013 and 2014. The U.S. also becomes a major player, representing 18 percent of total global installations. The Latin American, Middle Eastern and North African markets also start to show great promise in 2014 through 2016.

“While the annual growth many not be as strong, the global market will still total more than 50 gigawatts in 2016 -- a massive jump from the 6.4 gigawatts installed in 2009 when GTM Research first predicted the shake-out would occur.”

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