UNMANNED AIRSTRIKES OR WIND FOR THE GRID IN PAKISTAN?

The key to the situation in Afghanistan, it is now widely assumed, is Pakistan.

Doyle McManus, political reporter, Los Angeles Times: "...top officials already have come to an important conclusion: Pakistan, not Afghanistan, is now the central front of the war..."

It is widely assumed that unsuccessfully dealing with Pakistan only makes the situation worse.

Fareed Zakaria, of CNN and Newsweek, recently pointed out the flaw in the current NATO approach to the problem: “…most estimates of the number of Qaeda fighters in Pakistan range well under a few thousand. Are those the only people we are bombing? Is bombing—by Americans—the best solution? The Predator strikes have convinced much of the local population that it's under attack from America and produced a nationalist backlash. A few Qaeda operatives die, but public support for the battle against extremism drops in the vital Pashtun areas of Pakistan. Is this a good exchange?”

It is widely assumed that if things worsen in Pakistan, the opportunity for bad actors to gain great leverage will grow, that violence will spread and that Pakistan itself could even spiral out of control.

Military leaders in Pakisan and the U.S. want to up the aqgression but the Obama administration has begun thinking beyond past reflexive responses.

McManus, LA Times: "...the administration's main thrust will be a major increase in economic aid to build roads, bridges and schools in a desperately poor country, in hopes that such things will help the civilian government win the people's support against the Taliban."

Pakistani New Energy advocate Air Commodore (Retired) Azfar A. Khan thinks it's time to try wind for the grid instead of unmanned drones. He says Pakistan is ripe for a wind power explosion.

It’s the kind of explosion that would be good for Pakistan.

Air Commodore Khan: “One would be surprised to know that in the region of Nevarra, Spain, 70% of the region’s energy needs are being fulfilled by wind and solar energy. It’s a classic example of using renewable energy in any country! The logical question that automatically comes to one’s mind is: “If it can be done in Spain, why can’t it be done here in Pakistan?” The answer is a big Yes!”

Pakistanis have been warned to prepare for power outages. The nation is at least 3,500 megawatts short of needed peak capacity. During periods of peak demand, there will be load-shedding and, for some, that could mean daily 9-to-11 hour brownouts in the heat of summer.

Pakistan has a potential 40,000 megawatts of wind energy, according to a government planning commission paper. Adding offshore projections brings the potential to 50,000+ megawatts. Yet Pakistan has an (imprecisely determined) installed capacity that appears to be less than 1 megawatt total of mostly small, off-grid turbines. The Alternative Energy Development Board (AEDB) has goals of 700 megawatts for 2010 and 9,700 megawatts for 2030. By contrast, India at present has 8,000+ megawatts of installed capacity.

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Khan: “As per the collected data, the coastal belt of Pakistan is blessed by God Almighty with a wind corridor that is 60 km wide (Gharo to Keti Bandar) and 180 km long (up to Hyderabad.) This corridor has the exploitable potential of 50,000 MW of electricity generation through wind energy (courtesy: AEDB). We should be able to meet a major part of our electricity requirement by installing wind turbines in this corridor.”

It is slightly mysterious why Pakistan does not yet have significant wind capacity. The government offers a variety of incentives. It promises to purchase the power generated and provides guarantees against generation interruptions. It makes land for installations available at subsidized rates. It created a guaranteed payment rate and then revised it up. Presently, it promises to pay 11-to-12 cents per kilowatt-hour for 10 years and a guaranteed degression rate for the subsequent 10 years.

Yet something like 93 or 94 deals have fallen through, despite the fact that that the AEDB has dealt with highly reputable multinational wind industry powers such as GE Energy of Canada, Vestas of Denmark and Siemens/Fuhrlander of Germany.

Hussain Ahmad Siddiqui, former chairman, State Engineering Corporation, Ministry of Industries and Production: “…the Alternative Energy Development Board (AEDB) has not yet been able to develop a single project worth mentioning, either of wind-power or of solar energy. Tall claims made by AEDB since its inception in July 2003 have proved to be mere rhetoric...Over the last five years, the AEDB has issued as many as 93 LOIs (letter of interest) to foreign and local investors for setting up a number of wind-farms, each of 50 MW or higher capacity, on build, operate, own and transfer (BOOT) basis. Many other EOIs (expression of interest) are said to be in various stages of processing for approval...None of the prospective independent power producers (IPPs) however has obtained the letter of support (LOS) as the requisite power purchase agreement (PPA) with Wapda/KESC has not been concluded by any…”

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Wind energy does not represent only a wasted source of potential power generation in Pakistan. It is also a source of economic opportunity being squandered.

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Air Commodore Khan: “If we decide to go for wind energy then the next question would be: “Should we import ready-made wind turbines from abroad or should we manufacture these turbines indigenously in our own country? … During one of my recent lectures on Wind Energy in one of the universities of the country, the same question was posed by a participant, “If we go for the wind energy option, we would be needing hundreds of wind turbines in order to make up for the shortfall of electricity. Why can’t we manufacture these turbines ourselves indigenously?” I replied, “Yes, we can, if there’s a will!” We can’t expect the foreign manufacturers to provide these turbines to us as and when we need them due to the long lead time involved.”

Khan argues that Pakistan, despite its precarious financial situation, can more readily afford to build wind than other types of new electricity generation if it builds its own turbine manufacturing industry. Such an undertaking would bring to bear one of Pakistan’s greatest strengths, its skilled, low-cost workforce. To make his point, he recounts a joint Pakistani-French aeronautical component manufacturing project in Kamra.

Air Commodore Khan: “The French team leader asked his Pakistani counterpart as to what would be the charges for the expertise of his (Pakistani) technicians…Our team leader just said off-the-cuff that he would charge US $10 per hour per technician…[The] French team leader jumped and declared…he would be saving US $35 per hour…as a technician of such caliber was charging $45 per hour in France! Actually, the French team leader had tasked us to manufacture 18 parts…When he again visited Kamra after a month, he personally inspected [and] cleared all the parts and was highly impressed with the expertise of our technicians…[T]his is the calibre of our technicians…”

Retired Pakistani military technicians, having worked on sophisticated equipment like high performance miniature Surface Mount Devices (SMDs) soldered on Printed Circuit Boards (PCBs), are retired to villages at the age of 45. Experienced in mechanical as well as circuitry engineering, they could - instead of being underemployed - form the nucleus of a wind manufacturing capability competitive with the world-class turbine industry now coming to maturity in India.

As described recently (see 17,000 OR 100? SOLAR ENERGY, PAKISTAN, HEARTS AND MINDS), this workforce, experienced in aerospace technology, could also form the foundation of a Pakistani solar manufacturing industry.

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There is an existing Aircraft Manufacturing Factory (AMF) in Kamra readily suitable for the manufacture of blades and hubs, according to Khan, and other facilities could be adapted to need once the industry has its first plant busy. A central proving facility where parts and components are put through an uncompromisingly rigorous testing process, Khan acknowledges, will be absolutely requisite to a successful industry.

Geabox and shaft manufacturing is mechanical engineering. Gear boxes can be made at the Machine Tools Factory in Landhi, Karachi, and the Heavy Mechanical Complex in Taxila can handle the shafts. Generators can be produced by experienced manufacturers in Rawalpindi, Gujrat, Lahore or Karachi. Electronic components can be handled by the Air Weapons Complex. Any of the industrial facilities now making transmission grid towers and transmission cables can make turbine towers and connecting wires.

Suzlon, the India-based multinational that has grown into one of the biggest turbine manufacturers in the world, showed the developmental path now open to Pakistan.

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Air Commodore Khan: “India…collaborated with a world-renowned company…This company trained Indian technicians and also transferred requisite technology. Now, India is exporting world-class turbines to other countries. We should emulate India’s example and have a joint venture with a world- renowned company to set up facilities and manufacture these turbines under its supervision. Then, slowly and steadily, we can take over complete manufacturing from that company…”

It is obvious in reading Khan’s calls for the development of a wind manufacturing industry and a solar manufacturing industry in Pakistan that while he may be deeply committed to New Energy, what he is truly passionate about is the economic opportunity the opening up of these industries represents for the people of his country. Clearly, he sees what Fareed Zakaria saw when he wrote recently about growing Islamic radicalization.

Zakaria: “The reality—for the worse, in my view—is that radical Islam has gained a powerful foothold in the Muslim imagination. It has done so for a variety of complex reasons that I have written about before. But the chief reason is the failure of Muslim countries to develop, politically or economically. Look at Pakistan…”

Violent radicalism is a problem that belongs both to the U.S. and Pakistan. A violent response comes reflexively. Providing the opportunity to develop politcally and economically may be a wiser response, if less reflexive or emotionally easy.

Zakaria: “Recognizing the reality of radical Islam is entirely different from accepting its ideas. We should mount a spirited defense of our views and values. We should pursue aggressively policies that will make these values succeed. Such efforts are often difficult and take time—rebuilding state structures, providing secular education, reducing corruption—but we should help societies making these efforts. The mere fact that we are working in these countries on these issues—and not simply bombing, killing and capturing—might change the atmosphere…”

Air Commodore Khan never mentions politics or religion. He never mentions the word peace. He advocates only for the offering of opportunity through the building of wind and sun infrastructure. It is nevertheless obvious: The green of New Energy beats the red of spilled blood.

Both Afghanistan and Pakistan wind resources are being carefully studied. (click to enlarge)

Wind Power Projects and Role of Government
Nauman Bhutta (Energy Wing, Pakistan Planning Commission)
and
Why not manufacture wind turbines in Pakistan? and 2ND VERSION: Why not manufacture wind turbines in Pakistan?
Air Cdr (Retd) Azfar A. Khan, 20 May 2008 (Overseas Pakistani Friends)
and
Learning to Live With Radical Islam; We don’t have to accept the stoning of criminals. But it’s time to stop treating all Islamists as potential terrorists
Fareed Zakaria, March 9, 2009 (Newsweek)
and
Wind energy in Pakistan: targets missed
Engr Hussain Ahmad Siddiqui, 29 September 2008 (Overseas Pakistani Friends)
and
Fear and loathing in Pakistan; Gains by Islamic extremists and anti-American sentiment among its people make it a tough test for Obama
Doyle McManus, March 8, 2009 (LA Times)

WHO
New Energy advocate Air Commodore (Retired) Azfar A. Khan; Engr Hussain Ahmad Siddiqui, former chairman, State Engineering Corporation, Ministry of Industries and Production; The Alternate Energy Development Board (AEDB); The Pakistan Metrological Department

WHAT
Pakistan has wind and the resources to build a wind manufacturing industry.

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WHEN
- Pakistan’s new government was installed February 18, 2008.
- Turbines are assumed to have 25-to-30 year productive lifetimes.
- Khan reports turbines operate 24/7/365 except for 2 scheduled maintenance days per year.

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WHERE
- There are identified resources in the provinces of Sindh and Baluchistan.
- Khan identifies industrial facilities in Landhi, Karachi, Taxila, Rawalpindi, Gujrat, Lahore, Karachi and Kamra capable of and ready for wind industry production.
- Kamra is 77 kilometers from Islamabad, northeast toward Peshawar.
- The Shaheen Foundation, in Islamabad, maintains a computerized database of the ready and willing workforce trained in technology and disciplined by 20-to25 years of military experience.
- India, 4th biggest electricity producer in the world, has an 8000+ megawatt installed wind capacity and its Suzlon is the 4th biggest wind turbine manufacturer in the world.

Sites of wind testing towers in Pakistan. (click to enlarge)

WHY
- Khan explains to a Pakistani audience he assumes is unfamiliar with the wind turbine that it is machine atop a steel tower at a windy location that turns wind power into electricity from wind. The more wind, the more electricity.
- The machine has a 1-, 2-, or 3-bladed rotor a gearbox, two shafts (low- and high-speed), a generator and an electronic controller.
- The higher the turbine on the tower, the more electricity is produced, because wind is slower and more turbulent near the ground.
- Suzlon has built and sold 26,000 turbines.
- Existing Pakistani manufacturing facilities can be used for parts and components.
- A central testing facility with rigorous, uncompromising procedures is a fundamental requirement.
- Pakistan’s wind resources have been identified and authenticated by the Alternate Energy Development Board (AEDB) and the Pakistan Metrological Department.
- Summary of benefits of building a Pakistani wind industry and wind turbine manufacturing industry: (1) Utilization of domestic resource; (2) opportunity for underused skilled domestic workforce; (3) Potential of developing an internationally competitive industry; (4) improved foreign balance of trade; (5) emissions-free, fuel-free energy;

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QUOTES
- Khan: “Our country is blessed with innumerable gifts from God Almighty, one of them being excellent manpower that’s extremely cheap and hardworking. The skill of this manpower is just marvellous.”
- Khan: “Our manpower is second to none. The only requirement is that we should harness our manpower and facilities to get the maximum out of them. Iqbal, the renowned poet of the East, has said: “Zara num ho to yeh mattee bari zarkhez hai saqi,” meaning the earth of this country is highly fertile if we provide some water to it!”
- Khan: "...based on my more than thirty years’ experience in the technical field that, instead of setting up manufacturing facilities for each and every part of the wind turbine, we should utilize the existing facilities of the country to their optimum level for manufacturing each and every part of the wind turbine...It only requires excellent management and sincerity of purpose and nothing else! By following the above-mentioned strategy, the cost of manufacturing would come down drastically! If we plan carefully and apply all tools of modern management, there’s no reason why we shouldn’t make this experience a thundering success. We have all the facilities and expertise at our disposal."
- Zakaria: “The veil is not the same as the suicide belt. We can better pursue our values if we recognize the local and cultural context, and appreciate that people want to find their own balance between freedom and order, liberty and license. In the end, time is on our side. Bin Ladenism has already lost ground in almost every Muslim country. Radical Islam will follow the same path. Wherever it is tried—in Afghanistan, in Iraq, in parts of Nigeria and Pakistan—people weary of its charms very quickly. The truth is that all Islamists, violent or not, lack answers to the problems of the modern world. They do not have a world view that can satisfy the aspirations of modern men and women. We do. That's the most powerful weapon of all.