NewEnergyNews

NewEnergyNews

Gleanings from the web and the world, condensed for convenience, illustrated for enlightenment, arranged for impact...

The challenge now: To make every day Earth Day.

YESTERDAY

  • Monday Study – New Data Shows Russian Economy Losing In The Ukraine War
  • THE DAY BEFORE

  • Weekend Video: Taking Carbon Out Of The Air?
  • Weekend Video: Where In The World Wind Is
  • Weekend Video: Where In The World Solar Is
  • THE DAY BEFORE THE DAY BEFORE

  • FRIDAY WORLD HEADLINE-Global New Energy Hits New Investment Record In 1H 2022
  • FRIDAY WORLD HEADLINE-Green Hydrogen On The Verge Of A Big Test
  • THE DAY BEFORE THAT

    THINGS-TO-THINK-ABOUT WEDNESDAY, August 10:

  • TTTA Wednesday- ORIGINAL REPORTING: California Faces Emergency Reliability Moves To Prolong Nuclear and NatGas Power
  • TTTA Wednesday-Clean Energy Advocates Endorse Inflation Reduction Act For Climate
  • THE LAST DAY UP HERE

  • Monday Study – Big Gains From Dems’ New Climate Bill
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    Founding Editor Herman K. Trabish

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    Some details about NewEnergyNews and the man behind the curtain: Herman K. Trabish, Agua Dulce, CA., Doctor with my hands, Writer with my head, Student of New Energy and Human Experience with my heart

    email: herman@NewEnergyNews.net

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      A tip of the NewEnergyNews cap to Phillip Garcia for crucial assistance in the design implementation of this site. Thanks, Phillip.

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    Pay a visit to the HARRY BOYKOFF page at Basketball Reference, sponsored by NewEnergyNews and Oil In Their Blood.

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  • THINGS-TO-THINK-ABOUT WEDNESDAY, August 17:
  • ORIGINAL REPORTING: New Tools To Bring Equity To Electricity Service
  • The New Energy Takeover Continues

    Wednesday, August 17, 2022

    ORIGINAL REPORTING: New Tools To Bring Equity To Electricity Service

    Utility regulators eye new tools to ensure equity efforts don't impinge on other policy goals; It is up to regulators to solve the power sector’s cost of equity conundrum, equity advocates said.

    Herman K. Trabish, February 21, 2022 (Utility Dive)

    Editor’s note: Bringing the interests of all electricity users into decisions made in the regulatory process is becoming an essential element of the energy transition.

    Recent U.S. Department of Energy research verifies serious institution-based inequities in the power system’s delivery of electricity, but it can be rectified, utilities, regulators and equity advocates said. Lower-income households’ utility service disruptions are five times more frequent than higher-income households, and service losses by households of color are “far more likely” than for whites, according to a November 2021 Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) paper. For both of those types of households, “disconnection notices signal an emergency,” the LBNL paper said.

    If inequities “baked into the existing system” are not reversed, they “are likely to become more pronounced” as the energy transition accelerates because equity is also equitable access to clean energy, energy efficiency and rate relief programs, consumer, utility, energy and environmental justice representatives wrote in the LBNL paper.

    Through fairly allocated costs and benefits, regulators “can absolutely address inequitable outcomes,” Commissioner Abigail Anthony of the Rhode Island Public Utilities Commission told Utility Dive. But it is important to differentiate inequities in utility regulation “from inequities in other parts of the economy or society that are squeezed into utility bills and services.”

    Advancing equity requires new programs and rate designs that merge traditional cost of service regulation with public interest principles, power system stakeholders agreed. But those programs and rates must also protect against rising electricity costs that regulators, utilities and ratepayers in California and other states worry may slow the electrification needed for decarbonization and impede other ratepayer-funded policy goals, many said. Innovative Arrears Management Programs (AMPs) and Performance-Based Regulation (PBR) are potential win-win alternative paths to equity and other policy goals for utilities and ratepayers, the stakeholders said.

    “Energy equity is the fair distribution of the benefits and burdens of energy production and consumption,” according to LBNL Senior Program Manager Lisa Schwartz, the paper’s technical editor. It “can be a goal, tool or metric,” because equitable affordability is a goal, customer participation in regulatory debates is a tool, and metrics validate “policies, regulations and programs.”

    Recent policy initiatives by at least 13 states and the Biden administration are taking regulation beyond its traditional objectives of reliable, safe and affordable electric service to a new objective of serving the public interest, Schwartz added. That change in regulatory priorities can change access to electricity service, access to energy efficiency and clean energy programs and rate-setting… click here for more

    The New Energy Takeover Continues

    Wind And Solar Provided More Than Two-Thirds Of New U.S. Electrical Generating Capacity During First Half Of 2022; FERC Foresees Natural Gas Capacity Additions Plummeting Over Next Three Years As Renewable Energy Growth Is 20x Greater

    Ken Bossong, August 15, 2022 (SUN DAY Campaign)

    “..Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) [data shows] renewable sources accounted for more than two-thirds of the new U.S. electrical generating capacity added during the first six months of 2022…Wind (5,722-MW) and solar (3,895-MW) provided 67.01% of the 14,352-MW in utility-scale (i.e. > 1-MW) capacity put into service during the first half of the year. Additional capacity was provided by geothermal (26-MW), hydropower (7-MW), and biomass (2-MW). The balance came from natural gas (4,695-MW) and oil (5-MW). No new capacity was reported for 2022 from either nuclear power or coal…

    …[The] recent additions bring renewable energy's share of total U.S. available installed generating capacity up to 26.74%...[f]ive years ago, renewables' share was 19.70%. Ten years ago, it was 14.76%...FERC reports that there may be as much as 192,507-MW of new solar capacity in the pipeline with 66,315-MW classified as "high probability" additions…The "high probability" additions alone would [by 2025] nearly double utility-scale solar's current installed capacity of 74,530-MW…[And] FERC's forecast predates Congressional approval of the Inflation Reduction Act which could super-charge solar's growth…

    …[N]ew wind capacity by June 2025 could total 70,393-MW with 17,383-MW being "high probability" …[That would grow installed wind capacity] by at least 12% and possibly by much more…Possibly more startling is how little net new natural gas capacity FERC anticipates being added over the next three years - just 4,319-MW…Utility-scale solar and wind generating capacity would expand from 17.15% of domestic capacity today to 22.64% by mid-2025…[and] natural gas' share would contract from 44.23% today to 42.37% by June 2025…” click here for more

    Monday, August 15, 2022

    Monday Study – New Data Shows Russian Economy Losing In The Ukraine War

    Business Retreats and Sanctions Are Crippling the Russian Economy; Measures of Current Economic Activity and Economic Outlook Point to Devastating Impact on Russia

    Jeffrey A. Sonnenfeld, Steven Tian, et.al., July 2022 (Yale University)

    Introduction

    As the Russian invasion of Ukraine enters into its fifth month, a common narrative has emerged that the unity of the world in standing up to Russia has somehow devolved into a “war of economic attrition which is taking its toll on the west”, given the supposed “resilience” and even “prosperity” of the Russian economy. – and a reflection of widely held but factually incorrect misunderstandings over how the Russian economy is actually holding up amidst the exodus of over 1,000 global companies and international sanctions.

    That these misunderstandings persist is not surprising. Since the invasion, the Kremlin’s economic releases have become increasingly cherry-picked, selectively tossing out unfavorable metrics while releasing only those that are more favorable. These Putin-selected statistics are then carelessly trumpeted across media and used by reams of well-meaning but careless experts in building out forecasts which are excessively, unrealistically favorable to the Kremlin – which we explain further in Section I of this paper.

    Our team of experts, using Russian language and unconventional data sources including high frequency consumer data, cross-channel checks, releases from Russia’s international trade partners, and data mining of complex shipping data, have released one of the first comprehensive economic analyses measuring Russian current economic activity five months into the invasion, and assessing Russia’s economic outlook.

    From our analysis, it becomes clear: business retreats and sanctions are crippling the Russian economy, in the short-term, and the long-term. We tackle a wide range of common misperceptions – and shed light on what is actually going on inside Russia, including:

    - Russia’s strategic positioning as a commodities exporter has irrevocably deteriorated, asit now deals from a position of weakness with the loss of its erstwhile main markets, and faces steep challenges executing a “pivot to Asia” with non-fungible exports such as piped gas – as we explain further in Section II of this paper.

    - Despite some lingering supply chain leakiness, Russian imports have largely collapsed, and the country faces stark challenges securing crucial inputs, parts, and technology from hesitant trade partners, leading to widespread supply shortages within its domestic economy – as we explain further in Section III of this paper.

    - Despite Putin’s delusions of self-sufficiency and import substitution, Russian domestic production has come to a complete standstill with no capacity to replace lost businesses, products and talent; the hollowing out of Russia’s domestic innovation and production base has led to soaring prices and consumer angst – as we explain further in Section IV of this paper.

    - As a result of the business retreat, Russia has lost companies representing ~40% of its GDP, reversing nearly all of three decades’ worth of foreign investment and buttressing unprecedented simultaneous capital and population flight in a mass exodus of Russia’s economic base – as we explain further in Section V of this paper.

    - Putin is resorting to patently unsustainable, dramatic fiscal and monetary intervention to smooth over these structural economic weaknesses, which has already sent his government budget into deficit for the first time in years and drained his foreign reserves even with high energy prices – and Kremlin finances are in much, much more dire straits than conventionally understood – as we explain further in Section VI of this paper.

    - Russian domestic financial markets, as an indicator of both present conditions and future outlook, are the worst performing markets in the entire world this year despite strict capital controls, and have priced in sustained, persistent weakness within the economy with liquidity and credit contracting – in addition to Russia being substantively cut off from international financial markets, limiting its ability to tap into pools of capital needed for the revitalization of its crippled economy – as we explain further in Section VII of this paper.

    Looking ahead, there is no path out of economic oblivion for Russia as long as the allied countries remain unified in maintaining and increasing sanctions pressure against Russia – as we explain further in Section VIII of this paper. Looking ahead, there is no path out of economic oblivion for Russia as long as the allied countries remain unified in maintaining and increasing sanctions pressure against Russia, and The Kyiv School of Economics and McFaul-Yermak Working Group have led the way in proposing additional sanctions measures.

    Defeatist headlines arguing that Russia’s economy has bounced back are simply not factual - the facts are that, by any metric and on any level, the Russian economy is reeling, and now is not the time to step on the brakes…

    Decoding Deceptive Official Russian Economic Statistics… . Re-Evaluating Russia as a Commodity Exporter: Rising Prices Mask Irreversible Deterioration in Long-Term Strategic Positioning… Drop In Russian Imports Illustrates Asymmetric Weakness of Russia’s Global Economic Relationships… Weak Russian Domestic Consumption & Production Data Shows Import Substitution Not Feasible… Business, Capital, and Talent Flight From Russia… Unsustainable Fiscal and Monetary Stimulus And Kremlin Interventions Conceal Structural Economic Weaknesses… Financial Markets Pricing In Sustained Weakness In Real Economy with Liquidity and Credit Contracting…

    Conclusions

    In the previous sections, it has been established that:

    - Russia’s strategic positioning as a commodities exporter has irrevocably deteriorated, as it now deals from a position of weakness with the loss of its erstwhile main markets, and faces steep challenges executing a “pivot to Asia” with non-fungible exports such as piped gas – as we explain further in Section II of this paper. p> - Despite some lingering leakiness, Russian imports have largely collapsed, and the country faces stark challenges securing crucial inputs, parts, and technology from hesitant trade partners, leading to widespread supply shortages within its domestic economy – as we explain further in Section III of this paper.

    - Despite Putin’s delusions of self-sufficiency and import substitution, Russian domestic production has come to a complete standstill with no capacity to replace lost businesses, products and talent; the hollowing out of Russia’s domestic innovation and production base has led to soaring prices and consumer angst – as we explain further in Section IV of this paper.

    - As a result of the business retreat, Russia has lost companies representing ~40% of its GDP, reversing nearly all of three decades’ worth of foreign investment and buttressing unprecedented simultaneous capital and population flight in a mass exodus of Russia’s economic base – as we explain further in Section V of this paper.

    - Putin is resorting to patently unsustainable, dramatic fiscal and monetary intervention to smooth over these structural economic weaknesses, which has already sent his government budget into deficit for the first time in years and drained his foreign reserves even with high energy prices – and Kremlin finances are in much, much more dire straits than conventionally understood – as we explain further in Section VI of this paper.

    - Russian domestic financial markets, as an indicator of both present conditions and future outlook, are the worst performing markets in the entire world this year despite strict capital controls, and have priced in sustained, persistent weakness within the economy with liquidity and credit contracting – in addition to Russia being substantively cut off from international financial markets, limiting its ability to tap into pools of capital needed for the revitalization of its crippled economy – as we explain further in Section VII of this paper.

    - Looking ahead, there is no path out of economic oblivion for Russia as long as the allied countries remain unified in maintaining and increasing sanctions pressure against Russia

    Looking ahead, there is no path out of economic oblivion for Russia as long as the allied countries remain unified in maintaining and increasing sanctions pressure against Russia, and The Kyiv School of Economics and McFaul-Yermak Working Group have led the way in proposing additional sanctions measures across individual sanctions, energy sanctions and financial sanctions, led by Ambassador Michael McFaul, Tymofiy Mylovanov, Nataliia Shapoval, and Andriy Boytsun.

    Defeatist headlines arguing that Russia’s economy has bounced back are simply not factual - the facts are that, by any metric and on any level, the Russian economy is reeling, and now is not the time to step on the brakes…

    Saturday, August 13, 2022

    Taking Carbon Out Of The Air?

    There is an estimated $100 billion in the just-passed Infrastructure Reduction Act for CO2 reduction strategies and this is one.From U.S. Dept. of Energy via YouTube

    Where In The World Wind Is

    Where these riches are blowing away, they could be captured for local and wider benefit. From VGraphs via YouTube

    Where In The World Solar Is

    Finding it is the first step toward developing it. From VGraphs via YouTube

    Friday, August 12, 2022

    Global New Energy Hits New Investment Record In 1H 2022

    Renewable Energy Sector Defies Supply Chain Challenges to Hit a Record First-Half For New Investment; BloombergNEF reports an 11% year-on-year rise in renewable energy financing in the first half of 2022, for a total of $226 billion

    August 2, 2022 (Bloomberg New Energy Finance)

    “Global investment in renewable energy totaled $226 billion in the first half of 2022, setting a new record for the first six months of a year…[This] reflects an acceleration in demand for clean energy supplies to tackle the ongoing global energy and climate crises…Investment in new large- and small-scale solar projects rose to a record-breaking $120 billion, up 33% from the first half of 2021. Wind project financing was up 16% from 1H 2021, at $84 billion…

    …[Despite recent rising input costs for key materials such as steel and polysilicon, as well as supply chain disruptions and rising financing costs,] investor appetite is stronger than ever, in part due to the very high energy prices currently being seen in many markets around the world…[T]he first half also saw an all-time record for venture capital and private equity investments into renewables and energy storage, with $9.6 billion raised – up 63% on the previous year…[P]ublic market issuances for renewable energy companies dropped 65% in 1H 2022, totaling $10.5 billion…

    …China posted remarkable investment growth in both wind and solar project finance…[Its] solar investments totaled $41 billion in 1H 2022, up 173% from the year before…[and it] invested $58 billion in new wind projects, up 107% year-on-year…China is well on track to hit its 1,200 gigawatt wind and solar capacity target by 2030...Offshore wind was another sector that saw a stark increase, with investment up 52% from the previous year, to $32 billion…The United Kingdom, France and Germany are just a few of the countries that have increased their offshore wind targets in the first half of 2022, signaling further support…” click here for more

    Green Hydrogen On The Verge Of A Big Test

    Green light given to Dubai royal’s 400MW green hydrogen project in Pakistan — powered by 1.2GW of wind and solar; ‘Comprehensive permission’ granted by regional government to joint venture majority-owned by Sheikh Ahmed Dalmook Al Maktoum — subject to bank guarantee

    Leigh Collins, 4 August 2022 (RECharge News)

    “…[The Sindh province government in Pakistan has granted ‘comprehensive permission’ for the construction of a 400MW green hydrogen project that would be powered by 500MW of wind energy and 700MW of solar, backed up by a battery…The unnamed facility is being developed by Oracle Energy, a joint venture 70%-owned by Sheikh Ahmed Dalmook Al Maktoum — a prominent member of Dubai’s royal family — and 30%-owned by London-based, AIM-listed Oracle Power…subject to the provision of a $600,000 performance guarantee…

    The project, if operating at full capacity, would produce 55,000 tonnes of green hydrogen per year…It has not been revealed how the green hydrogen produced at the project will be used. Memon — who is also a director in her family-owned conglomerate, the Kings Group of Industries — was previously chairman of the Sindh government’s board of investment…

    …[Oracle Power] also owns the extraction rights to 1.4 billion tonnes of lignite (brown coal) — the dirtiest fossil fuel — in Sindh, where it plans to build a 1.32GW coal-fired power plant…[and] has licences to search for gold in Western Australia…[Sheikh Ahmed Dalmook Al Maktoum has investments in infrastructure and] energy projects, LNG terminal development, commodity and oil trading, water desalination, [and] water recirculation…” click here for more

    Wednesday, August 10, 2022

    ORIGINAL REPORTING: California Faces Emergency Reliability Moves To Prolong Nuclear and NatGas Power

    Extreme Events Force CA Leaders to Face “Necessary Evils” to Protect Grid

    Herman K. Trabish, July 27, 2022 (California Current)

    Editor’s note: These emergency decisions are likely to be faced soon in many other states.

    Growing concerns about California’s power system necessitates the recent extraordinary steps by legislators to safeguard reliability, a key member of the California Energy Commission told Current during a recent interview. Since California’s 2020 blackouts, state regulators have authorized new energy supply, but Gov. Newsom’s signing of AB 205/SB 122 June 30 will help meet additional projected urgencies, CEC Vice Chair Siva Gunda said. The measure allocates $5.2 billion for a Strategic Reliability Reserve Fund, which includes $550 million for a Distributed Electricity Backup Assets Account, and extends operations of environmentally threatening generating facilities.

    By 2025, California may add 20 GW to 30 GW of nameplate capacity but unexpected factors beyond regulators’ control have slowed the rate of building, Gunda said. The possible “near term shortfall” from higher demand “could take three to five years to close,” he added.

    Even if California catches up to previously planned additional resource targets, there are shortfall risks from regional heatwaves driving demand up or wildfires disrupting transmission access to out-of-state energy supplies. Those kinds of events threaten “California’s ability to build out the electrical infrastructure,” making “extraordinary near-term measures and substantive changes to mid-term energy policy,” necessary, AB 205 concluded.

    In 2019, the CPUC authorized 3.3 GW of “backfill procurement” for coastal natural gas plants long scheduled for closure because of harms to ocean waters, said Gunda. And, in 2021, it authorized 11.5 GW of new supply by 2025 for the 2.2 GW Diablo Canyon nuclear facility retirement, other economic retirements, and load growth. Now, however, both the natural gas plants and Diablo operations could be extended.

    Since 2020, California has faced accelerating reliability pressures from recurring peak demand crises, more severe climate projections and volatility, renewables supply chain constraints, interconnection delays, permitting issues, and a federal solar tariff import disruption, Gunda said. “Over the last two years, over 4 GWs new generation was added, which was almost 8 GW of nameplate clean energy resources, and the CPUC also expanded demand side management programs and further procurements in extreme weather and emergency reliability proceedings, Gunda added.

    Because of the significant risk-from lagging procurement, the budget bills authorize spending for at least 5 GW of clean energy in 2022 and up to 10 GW more for 2025. The urgency to protect the state’s power system reliability goes beyond the state because “if the lights go off in California, momentum for the climate effort in the rest of the country could be at risk,” Gunda said… click here for more

    Clean Energy Advocates Endorse Inflation Reduction Act For Climate

    ACP Celebrates Historic Clean Energy and Climate Victory with Senate Passage of Inflation Reduction Act; Inflation Reduction Act Will Create 550,000 New Clean Energy Jobs, Clean energy will supply around 40% of country’s electricity

    August 7, 2022 (American Clean Power Association)

    “…[T]he Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA). provides unprecedented multi-year policy certainty for clean energy…[and] puts America on a path to creating 550,000 new clean energy jobs while reducing economy-wide emissions 40% by 2030. This is a generational opportunity for clean energy after years of uncertainty and delay…[The] investment in clean energy will supercharge America’s clean energy economy and keep the United States within striking distance of our climate goals…

    …[It can] lower consumer costs, enhance grid reliability, and strengthen the nation's energy security…[as well as] expand our domestic manufacturing base, inject nearly half a trillion dollars into U.S. GDP over the next decade and create more than half a million new jobs – more than doubling today’s clean energy workforce…” click here for more

    Monday, August 08, 2022

    Monday Study – Big Gains From Dems’ New Climate Bill

    Preliminary Report: The Climate and Energy Impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022

    Jenkins, J.D., Mayfield, E.N., Farbes, J., Jones, R., Patankar, N., Xu, Q., Schivley, G., August 2022 (REPEAT Project/Princeton University)

    Preliminary Findings

    Historical and Modeled Net U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions (Including Land Carbon Sinks)

    The Senate Inflation Reduction Act would: • cut annual emissions in 2030 by an additional ~1 billion metric tons below current policy (including the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law) • close two-thirds of the remaining emissions gap between current policy and the nation’s 2030 climate target (50% below 2005) • get the U.S. to within ~0.5 billion tons of the 2030 climate target • reduce cumulative GHG emissions by about 6.3 billion tons over the next decade (through 2032).

    Annual Change in Net U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions Relative to Current Policy (including Bipartisan Infrastructure Law)

    The Inflation Reduction Act cuts U.S. emissions primarily by accelerating deployment of clean electricity and vehicles, reducing 2030 emissions ~360 Mt and ~280 Mt respectively. The Act also incentivizes installation of efficiency upgrades and carbon capture in industrial sectors, contributing ~130 Mt of reductions. Rebates, tax credits and grants to spur electrification and efficiency improvements in buildings; reductions in methane emissions in the oil and gas sector spurred by the methane fee and grants; and funding to improve conservation and carbon sequestration in forest and agricultural lands also contribute important reductions (~210 Mt collectively)

    Contributions to Additional Net U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reductions Below Current Policy Needed to Reach 2030 Climate Target

    percentage of net emissions reductions relative to Current Policy (including the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law) to reach 50% below 2005 levels (-1.5 Gt CO2e)

    The Inflation Reduction Act closes about two-thirds of the remaining emissions gap between current policy and the nation’s 2030 climate target (50% below 2005) By driving down the cost of clean energy and other climate solutions, the Act also makes it easier for states or cities or companies to increase their climate ambitions. It also reinforces the economic benefits of any future federal regulations. (These dynamic effects of the bill are not captured in this modeling.)

    Change in annual U.S. energy expenditures vs Current Policy (including Bipartisan Infrastructure Law)

    Enacting the Inflation Reduction Act would lower annual U.S. energy expenditures by at least 4% in 2030, a savings of nearly $50 billion dollars per year for households, businesses and industry. That translates into hundreds of dollars in annual energy cost savings for U.S. households.

    Tax credits, rebates, and federal investments in the Act would shift costs from energy bills to the progressive federal tax base, lower the cost of electric and zero emissions vehicles, heat pumps, and efficiency upgrades for individuals and businesses, and finance investments in energy productivity improvements and carbon capture equipment by industry.

    These savings do not include the additional downward pressure the Act will put on prices for oil and natural gas by driving lower consumption of these commodities, which will further reduce U.S. energy costs. Price responses to changes in demand are not captured in our energy system modeling.

    Using a spreadsheet model of oil and gas elasticities, REPEAT Project estimates that lower U.S. consumption of petroleum products and natural gas could reduce crude oil prices by approximately 5% and reduce U.S. natural gas prices by ~10-20% in the medium term (2030-2035)

    Historical Annual Capacity Additions vs. Modeled Annual Average Capacity Additions

    The Inflation Reduction Act could spur record-setting growth in wind and solar capacity, with annual additions increasing from 15 GW of wind and 10 GW of utility-scale solar PV in 2020 to an average of 39 GW/year of wind additions in 2025- 2026 (~2x the 2020 pace) and 49 GW/year of solar (~5x the 2020 pace), with solar growth rates increasing thereafter.

    The bill would also incentivize deployment of carbon capture at new and existing natural gas power plants and retrofits of existing coal plants, due to the enhanced 45Q tax credit.

    Several constraints that are difficult to model may limit these growth rates in practice, including the ability to site and permit projects at requisite pace and scale, expand electricity transmission and CO2 transport and storage to accommodate new generating capacity, and hire and train the expanded energy workforce to build these projects. Modeled results should thus be taken as indicative that IRA establishes strong financial incentives to build capacity at the modeled pace, while non-financial challenges may constrain the pace of real-world deployment relative to modeled results. Several policies in IRA and the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, as well as proposed permitting reforms to be considered by Congress this Fall, can reduce these non-financial barriers (e.g. reforms to transmission siting and funding for CO2 transport & storage in IIJA; funding to expedite NEPA review in IRA; transmission investment funding in both bills).

    Annual capital investment in energy supply related infrastructure

    The Inflation Reduction Act would drive nearly $3.5 trillion in cumulative capital investment in new American energy supply infrastructure over the next decade (2023-2032).

    That includes more than $20 billion in annual investment in CO2 transport & storage and fossil power generation w/carbon capture by 2030.

    Annual investment in hydrogen production (including electrolysis and methane reforming w/carbon capture) increases to $3 billion annually by 2030, triple levels under current policy, and rises to over $50 billion by 2035.

    The Act has the greatest impact on investment in wind power and solar PV, which nearly doubles to $321 billion in 2030, versus $177 billion under current policy.

    The Act will drive substantial additional investments by households and businesses on the demand side of the energy system, including purchases of more efficient and electric vehicles, appliances, heating systems, and industrial process.

    It also provides tens of billions of dollars in grants, tax credits, and loan programs to develop manufacturing and supply chains for clean energy components, batteries, electric vehicles and critical minerals, spurring additional capital investment (and associated jobs) not captured in this report.

    Annual carbon dioxide captured for transport and geologic storage

    Incentives for carbon capture, storage, and use in the Inflation Reduction Act would build on demonstration funding in the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law to make carbon capture a viable economic option for the most heavily emitting industries, such as steel, cement, and refineries, as well as power generation from coal and natural gas.

    The total volume of CO2 captured for transport and geologic storage across energy and industry could reach 200 million tons per year by 2030, if sufficient investment in transport networks and storage basins can be deployed.1

    That includes roughly 110 million tons across industries and 90 million tons in power generation.2 Modeled results include 6 gigawatts of carbon capture retrofits at existing coal-fired power plants and 18 gigawatts of gas power plants with carbon capture installed by 2030.

    Modeled Net U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions (Including Land Carbon Sinks) Under High and Low Oil and Gas Production Scenarios

    Global and domestic demand for petroleum products and natural gas will be much larger drivers of future U.S. oil and gas production than the changes to public lands provisions in the Inflation Reduction Act.

    To address this uncertainty, REPEAT Project constructs high and low oil and gas production scenarios that span a wide range of potential future domestic production (the variation in 2030 equals 11-12% of 2021 production levels, see p. 15) and estimates the impact on U.S. emissions for each scenario.

    The low oil and gas production scenario assumes that reductions in U.S. petroleum products and natural gas consumption spurred by the Act result in lower domestic fossil fuel production while holding exports of oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) fixed at the trajectory in the EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2022 (AEO 2022).

    The high oil and gas production scenario assumes declining domestic consumption increases U.S. fossil fuel exports, with domestic production of oil and gas equal to the levels in AEO2022.

    Despite wide variation in oil and gas production, the difference in 2030 U.S. emissions between high and low oil and gas production scenarios spans only 40 million metric tons per year; that’s a plus or minus 2 percent variation around the ~1 billion tons per year of emissions reductions driven by the bill in 2030 (see p. 6).

    The Inflation Reduction Act does include several notable changes to public lands policy that could affect oil and gas production in federal lands and waters.

    The Act specifically requires sale of four offshore lease areas that were previously withdrawn by court order or executive action. It also implements new rules that tie offshore wind lease offerings to recent offshore oil and gas lease offerings and links renewable energy leasing and right-of-way issuances on public lands to recent onshore oil and gas lease offerings.

    The Act simultaneously increases royalties and rental fees for fossil fuel production in federal lands and waters, which may put downward pressure on future production. The Act also establishes a new fee on methane emissions in the oil and gas supply chain and provides $1.55 billion in funding to assist companies in monitoring and reducing methane pollution.

    Modeling the specific impact of these countervailing provisions is challenging, but their impact is expected to be much smaller than the variation in production spanned by our high and low oil and gas production scenarios…

    Saturday, August 06, 2022

    Dems’ Climate Bill On Verge

    It could be the biggest U.S. funding for climate ever.From MSNBC via YouTube

    Colbert Talks Transportation Electrification With DOE Sec

    Colbert and Sec. Granholm talk about how the imperfect bill before Congress is worth passing to support the transition to clean transportation.From The Late Show with Stephen Colbert via YouTube

    Europe In Heat

    This is the summer the world woke up to the crisis.From ClimateAdam via YouTube