IEA WHISTLEBLOWER SAYS NUMBERS RIGGED TO HIDE PEAK OIL

Key oil figures were distorted by US pressure, says whistleblower; Watchdog's estimates of reserves inflated says top official
Terry MacAlister, 9 November 2009 (UK Guardian)

"The world is much closer to running out of oil than official estimates admit, according to a whistleblower at the International Energy Agency who claims it has been deliberately underplaying a looming shortage for fear of triggering panic buying…[T]he US has played an influential role in encouraging the [IEA] to underplay the rate of decline from existing oil fields while overplaying the chances of finding new reserves.

"The allegations raise serious questions about the accuracy of the organisation's latest World Energy Outlook on oil demand and supply…In particular they question the prediction in the last World Economic Outlook, believed to be repeated again this year, that oil production can be raised from its current level of 83m barrels a day to 105m barrels. External critics have frequently argued that this cannot be substantiated by firm evidence and say the world has already passed its peak in oil production…[T]he "peak oil" theory is gaining support at the heart of the global energy establishment…"

If this is a cover-up, and it may be 1: How bad IS the supply decline? (click to enlarge)

[Unnamed IEA whistleblower;] "The IEA in 2005 was predicting oil supplies could rise as high as 120m barrels a day by 2030 although it was forced to reduce this gradually to 116m and then 105m last year…The 120m figure always was nonsense but even today's number is much higher than can be justified and the IEA knows this…Many inside the organisation believe that maintaining oil supplies at even 90m to 95m barrels a day would be impossible but there are fears that panic could spread on the financial markets if the figures were brought down further. And the Americans fear the end of oil supremacy because it would threaten their power over access to oil resources…"

"A second senior IEA source…also unwilling to give his name, said a key rule at the organisation was…[not to anger the Americans] but the fact was that there was not as much oil in the world as had been admitted…[and the world was already in the 'peak oil' zone]…The IEA acknowledges the importance of its own figures…The British government, among others, always uses the IEA statistics…The IEA said…peak oil critics had often wrongly questioned the accuracy of its figures…John Hemming, the MP who chairs the [UK] all-party parliamentary group on peak oil and gas, said the revelations confirmed his suspicions…"

If this is a cover-up, and it may be 2: How bad IS the supply decline? (click to enlarge)

"The IEA was established in 1974 after the oil crisis in an attempt to try to safeguard energy supplies to the west. The World Energy Outlook is produced annually under the control of the IEA's chief economist, Fatih Birol, who has defended the projections…[But] Birol has increasingly been facing questions about the figures inside the organisation…Matt Simmons, a respected oil industry expert, has long questioned the decline rates and oil statistics provided by Saudi Arabia on its own fields. He has raised questions about whether peak oil is much closer than many have accepted.

"A report by the UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC) last month said worldwide production of conventionally extracted oil could "peak" and go into terminal decline before 2020 – but that the government was not facing up to the risk….But as far back as 2004 there have been people making similar warnings…"