QUICK NEWS, 11-16: SOLAR NEXT YEAR; COST AND NEW ENERGY; WIND MOVES AHEAD; SUN-POWERED BYWAYS

SOLAR NEXT YEAR
iSuppli Boosts 2010 Solar Installation Forecast; 2011 Stays on Track
Stefan De Haan, November 8, 2010 (iSuppli)

"Stronger than expected growth in Germany has prompted iSuppli Corp. to boost its 2010 forecast for global installations of Photovoltaic (PV) solar systems.

"Worldwide installations in 2010 will amount to 15.8 Gigawatts (GW), up from iSuppli’s previous outlook of 14.2GW. This will represent 118.7 percent growth from 7.2GW in 2009. iSuppli now forecasts that installations in 2011 will amount to 19.3GW, down slightly from its previous forecast of 20.2GW…Germany installed 3.9GW worth of solar systems…[before] a cut of the country’s Feed-in-Tariff (FIT) incentive program in July…"

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"While iSuppli has trimmed its 2011 forecast, next year still is expected to be very strong for the PV market. Ironically, the strong performance for the entire year will be driven by a seasonal slowdown in installations during the first six months of 2011. This deceleration will drive down pricing for solar modules and stimulate demand in the second half of the year…

"Average worldwide pricing for crystalline solar modules will decline by 9 percent in the first quarter and by 6 percent in the second quarter. These price declines will be sufficient to enable system prices of 1.9 euros to 2.7 euros per watt in Germany—depending on the system size. Once this level is reached, demand will pick up again. iSuppli is reiterating its expectation of a strong market in Germany next year with 9.4GW worth of new installations."

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"iSuppli’s slight reduction in the 2011 forecast was due to shifts in solar incentive policies in important European markets, mainly France and Spain, the world’s seventh and 10th largest [2009] solar installation markets…

"…[S]ignificant FIT cuts are looming [in Spain] for 2011; a—a 45 percent decrease for ground installations is being discussed. In France, political support for PV seems to be crumbling…[T]he annual market [may be] less than 1GW until 2014…Belgium—the sixth largest country for solar installations, is expected to develop a bit slower than previously anticipated…[because of tightened] requirements for rooftop installations…[and] a drastic decline of the Czech market in 2011 is now clearly shaping up…"


COST AND NEW ENERGY
Cost of Green Power Makes Projects Tougher Sell
Matthew L.Wald and Tom Zeller Jr., November 7, 2010 (NY Times)

"…Even as many politicians, environmentalists and consumers want renewable energy and reduced dependence on fossil fuels, a growing number of projects are being canceled or delayed [in states including Florida, Idaho and Kentucky as well as Virginia] because governments are unwilling to add even small amounts to consumers’ electricity bills…By the end of the third quarter, year-to-date installations of new wind power dropped 72 percent from 2009 levels…

"…[New Energy advocates say] the focus on short-term costs short-sighted…Prices for fossil fuels have dropped [significantly below prices for wind and solar] in part because the recession has reduced demand. In the case of natural gas, newer drilling techniques have opened the possibility of vast new supplies for years to come…The gap in price can pit regulators, who see their job as protecting consumers from unreasonable rates, against renewable energy developers and utility companies, many of which are willing to pay higher prices now to ensure a broader energy portfolio in the future."

Cost for the New and Old energies will become progressively competitive. (click to enlarge)

"In April, for example, the state public utilities commission in Rhode Island rejected a power-purchase deal for an offshore wind project that would have cost 24.4 cents a kilowatt-hour. The utility now pays about 9.5 cents a kilowatt hour for electricity from fossil fuels…The state legislature responded by passing a bill allowing the regulators to consider factors other than price. The commission then approved an agreement to buy electricity from a smaller wind farm, although that decision is being challenged in the courts…Kentucky Power argued that [a contract to buy wind power in Illinois] would benefit customers [in the long run]…[but Kentucky commissioners agreed with] attorney general, Jack Conway, joined by business and industrial electricity users, [who] opposed the deal, contending that it would have increased a typical residential customer’s rates by about 0.7 percent…

"Companies that make solar cells and wind machines argue that a national energy policy is needed to guarantee them a market that will allow their industry to develop. Clean power will be an important industry globally for years, they say, and if the United States does not subsidize renewable energy now, it risks falling far behind other countries…They point to China…Ernst & Young [just, for the first time,] identified China as the most attractive market for investment in renewable energy…[in part due to] the failure of American lawmakers to pass a national renewable energy standard and the looming expiration of a Treasury program that allowed renewable developers to receive cash grants in lieu of tax credits."

The International Energy Agency says renewables can take over BUT ONLY IF...(click to enlarge)

"…To be sure, a lot of renewable power development is still going forward. The American Wind Energy Association estimates that wind farms capable of producing 6,300 megawatts of wind power are under construction, and that a busy second half of 2010 would leave installations about 50 percent behind last year. Solar power is becoming less expensive, and its use is expanding rapidly. But it still accounts for less than 1 percent of the nation’s electricity needs, providing enough to serve about 350,000 homes.

"Renewable energy supporters argue that higher fossil fuel prices will eventually make renewable energy more competitive — and at times over the last two decades, when the price for natural gas has spiked, wind power in particular has been a relative bargain. Advocates also argue that while the costs might be higher now, as the technology matures and supply chains and manufacturing bases take root, clean sources of power will become more attractive…Fold in the higher costs of extracting and burning fossil fuels on human health, the climate and the environment, many advocates argue, and renewable technologies like wind power are already cheaper…"


WIND MOVES AHEAD
Vestas Says U.S. Expansion on Course as Turbine Market Shrinks
Alex Morales.November 10, 2010

"Vestas Wind Systems A/S, the world’s largest wind turbine maker, will increase production in the U.S. even after analysts including HSBC Holdings Plc cut forecasts for installations in the region…[The Denmark-based] company will expand its U.S. head count to 4,000…from 2,300 now, Chief Executive Officer Ditlev Engel said…Last month it said it will eliminate 3,000 jobs in Europe…

"Vestas has spent more than $1 billion building four factories in Colorado to replace turbine imports in the U.S., the second biggest market after China. HSBC last month pared its forecast for the U.S. wind market this year by 14 percent and by 33 percent next year. Bloomberg New Energy Finance has also slashed predictions."

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"This year in Colorado, Vestas opened a plant in Brighton making nacelles, the casings that hold the power-generating equipment. It also built the world’s largest windmill-tower factory in Pueblo and added to its blade-manufacturing plant in Windsor…Another blade plant is due to open next year in Brighton. That will give Vestas the capacity to make about 3,000 megawatts of turbines a year in the U.S…

"… London-based HSBC said in an Oct. 14 research note that the Danish company is well-placed to gain market share worldwide and that its slice of sales will likely be 16.5 percent in 2014, up from 14.5 percent last year…The U.S. market will probably total 6 gigawatts this year and 5 gigawatts next year, according to HSBC. New Energy Finance predicts 7.8 gigawatts will be installed in 2011…The industry added 395 megawatts in the third quarter, the least since 2007…"

(from AWEA - click to enlarge)

"…[A] lack of long-term energy policies in the U.S. is behind the slump. In 2009, installations totaled 10 gigawatts…Vestas is looking to the U.S. after twice lowering its sales forecast for 2010. The company, which has lost more than half its market value in the past year, said Oct. 26 it will close four factories in Denmark and Sweden as European demand drops because banks have tightened financing to wind-park developers and the region’s sovereign debt crisis has limited prospects for economic growth. Shares in the company [have] dropped…for year to 45 percent…

"…Engel said it’s too early to tell if this month’s congressional elections, in which the Republicans won control of the House of Representatives, will have any impact on renewable energy…[He] is head of a G-20 advisory panel that recommended the elimination of fossil fuel subsidies, setting up a “robust” price for emitting carbon, scaling up research and development, and allowing free trade in environmental goods and services…"


SUN-POWERED BYWAYS
Turning Pavement Into Energy
Gabriel Perna, November 10, 2010 (International Business Times)

"…Heat from pavement is one reason city temperatures are often warmer than nearby suburban or rural areas…[R]esearchers at the Univeristy of Rhode Island hope to turn this heat into solar energy that can power streetlights, illuminate signs, heat buildings and melt ice.

"…The researchers have looked at both simple and complex approaches to harvesting the pavement heat into energy. One idea involved wrapping flexible photovoltaic cells around the top of Jersey barriers dividing highways to provide electricity to power streetlights and illuminate road signs…"

from Interseasonal Heat Transfer (click to enlarge)

"The team also has looked at embedding water filled pipes beneath the asphalt and then allowing sun to warm the water. The heated water could then be piped beneath bridge decks to melt accumulated ice on the surface…[and] reduce the need for road salt.

"The heated water could also be used in nearby buildings to satisfy hot water needs or turned into steam to turn a turbine into a small powerplant. A prototype of such a system was built by [a] URI graduate student…"

Instapower’s solar studs power LED highway lights (click to enlarge)

"The URI researchers also explored using thermo-electric materials in the roadway at different depths. These materials would be placed in both hot and cold locations to generate a current.

"The team also looked at replacing asphalt roadways with roads made of large, durable electronic blocks that contain photovoltaic cells, LED lights and sensors…[T]his would take time and money, but is doable…[A] group in Idaho made a driveway out of these materials for $100,000…"