THE LOWDOWN ON PLUG-IN CARS

Six Observations From the EV Revolution; Travis Bradford offers big thoughts on a transportation revolution in the making.
Katherine Tweed, October 24, 2011 (Greentech Media)

Although the enthusiasm for electric vehicles is still palpable amongst those who work in the industry…the hard work has begun to get the cars, and related infrastructure, into the hands of every early adopter and then tackle the mass market…Travis Bradford, president and founder of the Prometheus Institute for Sustainable Development and co-author of the recent GTM Research report, Electric Vehicles 2011: Technology, Economics, and Market, offered six big thoughts on what will and won’t happen…

1) Forecasts Are Useless…demand outpaces supply…[but] demand figures are based on aspirations…No one really knows what sort of demand is out there for EVs…2) EVs Are Already Relatively Cheap, but May Have Trouble Getting Cheaper…[I]ncreasing MPG standards coming to the U.S…[mean] electric vehicles will have to get better just to keep up…

Many moving parts (click to enlarge)

3) EVs Will Be Delivered by Big Auto…Big Auto can gain customer trust, which is a major obstacle to adoption today…4) BEVs Will Find Niche Markets; PHEV Will Win in Mass Markets…[T]he top three issues [that stop people from buying are]…access to charging, price, and battery range. Those issues become less of a concern with the PHEV…

5) It’s Not About…Charging Infrastructure…most of it is done at home…Batteries…that will not make or break adoption of EVs…Vehicle-to-Grid…V2G will happen [eventually]…6) EVs Provide Optionality to Change Transportation Forever…