U.S. SOLAR’S 2011 & 2012

US Solar PV Market Inside the Numbers; GTM Research’s Shayle Kann takes a deep dive into the commercial and residential solar PV markets.
Eric Wesoff, March 9, 2012 (Greentech Media)

"GTM Research Managing Director Shayle Kann… provided [global solar industry] data from the U.S. perspective. Until now, the global solar industry hadn't paid a lot of attention to the U.S. But that's changing…According to Kann, the action in the coming years is going to occur in China, the U.S. and the rest of the world. He cited First Solar's focus on new markets and untapped markets where solar can be installed at grid parity…

"…Kann noted that 2011 was a bad year for solar manufacturers. Manufacturing capacity grew 55 percent while demand was relatively flat. Italy re-jiggered its feed-in tariffs, while Germany was slow for most of the year…As a result, module prices dropped 50 percent…Kann suggested we use the opportunity of the Solyndra news platform to tell the real story of solar -- its job creation story and the approach of grid parity…"

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"We've seen big growth in U.S. markets -- Q4 was by far the strongest quarter and 2011 could finish at 1.8 gigawatts to 1.9 gigawatts…The utility market is becoming the big story in the U.S. There's a 9-gigawatt PV project pipeline with utility PPAs. Not every one of these projects will get built, but even if half of those projects are completed, the utility sector will dominate over residential and commercial…[though] there are still a lot of issues…

"The action is in California and New Jersey, while some of the states to watch are Massachusetts and Hawaii…The U.S. market doubled last year and will continue to see growth despite any potential import tariffs. There is still an impressive pipeline and the growth rate will be strong for the next few years...[but] the U.S. is starting to run up against interconnection issues and net energy metering caps and must confront these obstacles to maintain steady growth…[A]n increasing number of global players [are expected to enter the U.S. market]…"