LOOKING AHEAD FOR BIOPOWER

Market Data: Biomass Power Generation; Electricity Generation from Biomass: Installed Capacity Forecasts for Dedicated, Co-Fired, Anaerobic Digestion, and Biorefinery Facilities

2Q 2013 (Navigant Research)

“Accounting for 3% of global electricity generation capacity, biomass power generation (“biopower”) offers reliable baseload power to the grid and is expected to play a cornerstone role in meeting renewable energy targets worldwide…across a range of conversion platforms, including dedicated greenfield facilities that burn biomass exclusively, brownfield biomass and coal co-fired plants, anaerobic digesters producing biogas, and industrial biorefineries utilizing cogeneration…[L]ogistical challenges associated with its collection, aggregation, transportation, and handling, coupled with its poor energy density relative to fossil fuels, make biopower financially attractive in only a narrow set of circumstances. For this reason, biopower remains [largely subsidy-dependent]…

“…[The global installed capacity of biopower is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.4% between 2013 and 2020. Installed capacity will result in the generation of 900 TWh of electricity and the utilization of 1.7 billion tons of dry biomass by 2020. Germany, China, the United States, Brazil, and India are the leading national markets globally for biopower…[T]hese markets account for 52% of global installed capacity in 2020…"

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“Worldwide, the dedicated/co-fired biopower segment will account for the greatest share of capacity over the forecast period, reaching 83 GW of installed capacity and generating $28 billion in annual revenue by 2020 under the aggressive scenario. Navigant Research anticipates that the AD and biorefinery segments will collectively account for just one-third of the installed dedicated/co-fired capacity under the aggressive scenario, but will post healthy growth.]

“Supported by strong policy and healthy incentives, Europe currently accounts for 50% of installed capacity deployed worldwide. Capacity additions across Asia Pacific and Latin America through 2020 are expected to result in a modest shift away from Europe. Growth in North America is contingent upon the anticipated rollout of advanced biorefineries for advanced biofuels production. Navigant Research forecasts that, under an aggressive scenario, global installed biopower capacity will reach 129 GW by 2020…”

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