ENERGY 2030: ONLY THE CONSUMER KNOWS FOR SURE

What they read in Detroit:

Hybrids, flex-fuel cars not likely to impact energy use
Justin Hyde, December 6, 2006 (Detroit Free Press)
- Many of the U.S. auto industry's environmental efforts, including plug-in hybrids and flexible-fuel vehicles, will have little affect on the nation's energy use or output of greenhouse gases if the latest government forecast of energy trends through 2030 holds true.

- While sales of flexible-fuel vehicles are expected to rise, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) says E85 will barely get off the ground over the next two decades. More electricity will come from burning coal, which increases greenhouse gases, raising questions about the benefits of plug-in hybrids. And U.S. dependence on foreign sources of energy is expected to increase, despite more fuel-efficient vehicles…
- The EIA projects only a small increase in the price of oil before 2010, with some decline in the years after that as new sources come on line…
- [T]he EIA boosted its estimates of U.S. ethanol consumption by 21% to 14.6 billion gallons by 2030…200 million gallons would be sold as E85, a mix of 85% ethanol and 15% gasoline…based on distribution bottlenecks and a lack of a clear price advantage for E85 over regular gasoline.

- Detroit automakers have backed E85-capable vehicles as a relatively pain-free way to reduce U.S. dependence on foreign energy and support renewable fuels…“It's very hard to imagine a world where oil prices stay at $50 a barrel, and we don't see a more aggressive introduction of advanced fuels and technology," [Jason Mark, director of the Clean Vehicles Program at the Union of Concerned Scientists] said.

What they read in Cleveland:

Energy forecast for 2030 mixed; U.S. sees natural gas, oil, coal as still dominant
John Funk, December 6, 2006 (Cleveland Plain Dealer)
- More than a quarter of the new cars purchased in 2030 will use alternative technologies, including electric hybrid systems, diesel or flex-fuel engines that can burn gasoline or mixes containing mostly ethanol, the U.S. Energy Department's statistical division said… - [A]n early version of its "Annual Energy Outlook 2007"…assumes no major policy or regulatory changes and steady economic and technological growth over the next 23 years…

- In addition to an increase in the purchase of high-tech vehicles from about 8 percent of sales today to 28 percent in 2030, Tuesday's report projects steady if conservative growth in ethanol-based fuels from corn and grasses, biodiesel from vegetable oils and super clean diesel from coal.
- Ethanol production is expected to grow from today's 4 billion gallons per year to nearly 15 billion gallons in 2030 -- about 8 percent of the total gasoline consumption.
- The use of unconventional sources for diesel and other distillate fuels such as heating oil and jet fuel is expected to grow from less than 1 percent of supply today to more than 7 percent by 2030…
- [T]he Energy Department thinks oil, coal and natural gas will still account for about 86 percent of the nation's primary energy supplies in 2030 -- the same as in 2005.
- [The agency] expects…nuclear's share of total power generation to fall as more coal-fired plants come online.
Carbon dioxide emissions…will increase by about 1.2 percent annually…assuming new regulations don't curtail the use of coal….Mandatory limits on carbon dioxide emissions, called for by environmentalists but rejected by the Bush administration, could dramatically change this scenario…
- Total energy demand will increase by 1.1 percent a year, assuming the nation's economy grows at an average rate of 2.9 percent.

- Crude oil prices will decline gradually through 2015 as new supplies are developed, but then increase as global demand continues and higher-cost supplies are brought to market. The bottom line? Oil in 2030 will cost about what it does today, adjusted for inflation…
- Natural gas consumption won't grow as fast as previously believed, because the fuel has become relatively expensive compared with coal and utilities are planning to build new coal-fired rather than gas-burning power plants… Wholesale [natural gas] prices, now averaging $7 to $8 per 1,000 cubic feet, are expected to dip a little over the next several years before bouncing back…
- The average delivered price of electricity is expected to dip slightly in the next couple of years but return to today's prices by 2030…