GAO PEAK OIL REPORT

Just back from the fantastic Petroleum History Institute 2007 Symposium, where oil industry veterans still remember the oil price drops of the 80s and 90s (not to mention the crazy volatility of the 1880s and 1890s). Nevertheless, it is presently hard to see, over the next two or three decades, oil being any easier to get at, less in demand or significantly cheaper--which means that whether the actual peak in the resource is now or a few years off, we HAVE PASSED the era of cheap oil and entered an era of New Energy.

GAO: Lack of clear policy on peak oil
March 29, 2007 (UPI)
GAO Says Government Should Plan for Peak Oil in World Production
Alan Zibel, March 29, 2007 (AP via Yahoo Finance)

WHO
Government Accounting Office (GAO) versus the enormous and "internetly"-vocal, statistically astute Peak Oil movement

WHAT
The government report summarizing the hypothetical or actual peaking of world oil resources: CRUDE OIL: Uncertainty About Future Oil Supply Makes It Important to Develop a Strategy for Addressing a Peak and Decline in Oil Production.

WHEN
Report released Thursday, March 29, 2007, pertaining to a theoretical peaking of world oil resources postulated by various experts to have occurred, be occurring or be about to occur. The GAO report says the peak is somewhere between now and the birth of utopia or dystopia.

WHERE
The controversy rages at important websites such as Oil Drum, Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Peak Oil.

WHY
Report: "There is no coordinated federal strategy for reducing uncertainty about the peak's timing or mitigating its consequences…The consequences of a peak and permanent decline in oil production could be even more prolonged and severe than those of past oil supply shocks…”

QUOTES
Report: "In such circumstances [as economic factors limiting the replacement of oil supplies by alternative technologies], an imminent peak and sharp decline in oil production could cause a worldwide recession…If the peak is delayed, however, these technologies have a greater potential to mitigate the consequences."

From How the World Works
Andrew Leonard, March 29, 2007 (Salon)
- Total count for variants of the word "uncertain" used in the Government Accountability Office's newly released report on peak oil: 87...
- Total number of times the word "could" is used in the Government Accountability Office's newly released report on peak oil: 84...
- Why all this uncertainty? Simple: "Expert sources disagree." The closest the GAO will commit to a definitive statement: "Most studies estimate that oil production will peak sometime between now and 2040."

As pointed out by Forbes Bagatelle-Black, the subject was also covered at EV World: Uncertainty Haunts GAO Peak Oil Report