SOLAR GETTING CHEAPER

One thing makes this story as worrisome as it is exciting: Reports have been coming out of the solar industry for 2 YEARS promising the shortages were almost over, production was ramping up and thin film was coming, all of which was going to bring prices down. AND, though silicon shortages continue, production is still behind demand and thin film is still not perfected, PRICES ARE FALLING!

Cheaper solar power heads mainstream
Timothy Gardner, May 22, 2007 (Reuters via Yahoo News)

WHO
Janet Sawin, senior researcher, Worldwatch Institute; Travis Bradford, president, Prometheus Institute;
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WHAT
Solar power is expected to get less costly and become competitive with other types of power generation due to increasing production in China and growing supplies of polysilicon.

WHEN
A new study predicts falling costs for solar in the upcoming 3-4 years.

WHERE
- Photovoltaics manufacturers in Europe, China, Japan, and the United States are preparing to increase silicon production.
- World’s largest producers of solar panels: 1. Germany 2. Japan 3. China 4. United States

WHY
- Solar energy is the fastest growing source of energy but costs are still too high to facilitate widespread use. It is still generally twice as expensive as grid-generated electricity.
- New supplies of polysilicon (from sand), the fundamental element in photovoltaic materials (and silicon chips), are becoming available, driving cost-of-production down, perhaps as much as 40% by 2011/12. A dozen or more companies are readying increased purified polysilicon production.
- The burst high-tech bubble left an excess supply of silicon, discouraging development and leading to a shortage as production of photovoltaic panels ramped up in the last few years.
- Another factor easing supply shortages of silicon: increased development of “thin-film” photovoltaics, which require less silicon. Thin-film may get 20% of the market by 2010 (7% in 2006)
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QUOTES
- Sawin: "We are now seeing two major trends that will accelerate the growth of photovoltaics: the development of advanced technologies, and the emergence of China as a low-cost producer…"
- Bradford: "To say that Chinese PV producers plan to expand production rapidly in the year ahead would be an understatement…They have raised billions from international IPOs to build capacity and increase scale with the goal of driving down costs…"