MAINSTREAM PRESS, FRONT PAGE HEADLINE: PEAK OIL

So long disdained as marginal, people are finally starting to listen to the Peak Oilers. But is it too late? "People get ready, there's a change a-comin'..."

World oil supplies are set to run out faster than expected, warn scientists; Scientists challenge major review of global reserves and warn that supplies will start to run out in four years’ time
Daniel Howden 14 June 2007 (UK Independent)
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WHO
British Petroleum (Peter Davies, chief economist), Oil Depletion Analysis Centre (Colin Campbell, head), Jeremy Leggett, author of “Half Gone: Oil, Gas, Hot Air and the Global Energy Crisis”

WHAT
BP's Statistical Review of World Energy is wrong, according to Peak Oil scientists, and the supply of oil to the world will soon go into a steep decline.

WHEN
- BP's Statistical Review of World Energy published June 13.
- The Statistical Review predicts 40 years of reserves. Peak Oil theorists often say the peak in supply was in 2005 and generally predict the sharp decline is eminent. Some acknowledge availability of tar sand oil, oil in deep seas and polar regions, and oil from gas. These say total Peak will not be until 2011.

WHERE
- Discussions are of world supplies.
- Because they have the biggest reserves, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq and Kuwait arethe focus of much discussion.

WHY
- Depletion of oil fields follows a predictable bell curve described by Shell geologist M King Hubbert in 1956. The Hubbert Curve oil fields have rising production, plateau and decline. He predicted US production peak in 1969 and was ridiculed until it peaked in 1970 and has declines since. World oil is following the same pattern.
- Everyone agrees demand is rising, fueld by the growth of China and India. Statistics on this are unequivocal. The world consumes 85 million barrels of oil/day now and it will likely be 113 million/day by 2030.
- Everyone agrees the gap between demand and supply has closed and this has kept and will keep prices high. A rise in consumption or loss of supply could cause $100/barrel oil and bring on a recession.
- Statistics on reserves come from oil companies and are undependable. A journalist in -Kuwait found evidence the country’s national oil company had inflated reserves 50%. Iran is currently rationing its oil.
- Oil: all western economies run on it, food supply is oil dependent, fertilizers are made with it, all plastics come from it, manufacturing relies on it (20 barrels of oil to make a car), renewable energy equipment is made with it, metal, cosmetics, ink painkillers – all oil.
- Alternatives:
Coal: plentiful but dirty, adds to climate change
Natural gas: peaking, less dirty but dirty
Hydrogen fuel cells: not happening soon, costs fossil fuel to make
Biofuels: negative Energy Returned On Energy Invested (EROEI) – costs more energy than to make than you get back
Renewables: Our best choice but we are dragging out feet
Nuclear: works until the uranium runs out if you don’t mind the waste, the danger, the weapons proliferation, the terrorist target
the only viable transportation solution

QUOTES
- Campbell: "It's quite a simple theory and one that any beer drinker understands. The glass starts full and ends empty and the faster you drink it the quicker it's gone."
- Davies: "We don't believe there is an absolute resource constraint. When peak oil comes, it is just as likely to come from consumption peaking, perhaps because of climate change policies as from production peaking."
- Leggett: "It reminds me of the way no one would listen for years to scientists warning about global warming…We were predicting things pretty much exactly as they have played out. Then as now we were wondering what it would take to get people to listen."
- Sadad al-Huseini, former CEO, ARAMCO (Saudi Arabia): "The problem is that you go from 79 million barrels a day in 2002 to 84.5 million in 2004. You're leaping by two to three million [barrels a day]… That's like a whole new Saudi Arabia every couple of years. It can't be done indefinitely."