BIG OIL IN IRAQ

The Peak Oil folks need to look at this guy's numbers. Everybody who believes the war was/is about oil will want to know about them, too.

Iraqi oil reserves show great potential; Among OPEC Middle Eastern producers, Iraq holds the greatest promise for adding substantial oil reserves and production. Reserves may be significantly understated.
Hussain Rabia, July 2007 (World Oil)

WHO
Dr. Hussain Rabia, 27-year oil-industry veteran, author and managing director, Entrac Petroleum Ltd. (offering consulting/training services to Iraqi & international oil w/specifics on Iraq opportunities, technical needs, field development and in-country assistance)

Rabia's scenarios for how much oil Iraq really has. (click to enlarge)

WHAT
Assessment of Iraq reserves:

WHEN
from the article:
1920s, the country has never had a long period of political stability. This has precluded proper planning and development of resources.
The outline below is a brief walk through Iraq’s oil history:
1923—First oil discovery in the Naft Khana area
1939-1945— World War II; Exploration stops, as Iraq is a British protectorate
1948—Zubair field discovery
1953—Rumaila field discovery
1958—Overthrow of the monarchy and establishment of a republic state
1960—Law No. 80 introduced
1961—Implementation of above law and suspension of IPC exploration. Law 80 is introduced, limiting exploration in Iraq to the Iraqi National Oil Co.
1973—Arab-Israeli war; Iraqi oil production is temporarily suspended
1981-1988—Iraq/Iran war; oil production is interrupted. Investment in oil industry is greatly reduced. Limited exploration drilling is carried out
1991—Iraq invades Kuwait, oil production stops
1991–1996—Global sanctions on Iraq
1996–2003—Oil for food program allows about 2 million bopd to be sold
2002 ( April)—Iraq suspends oil exports for a month in support of Palestinian uprising
2003—US invades Iraq, oil production stops
2004–2005—Oil production nears 1.8 million bopd

Worn, unmaintained Iraq oil equipment. (click to enlarge)

WHERE
Rabia: “…Iraq has suffered more than most any other nation on earth, having being governed and run for a very long time by dictators utilizing incompetent family members, friends and party activists to run the domestic oil industry. Their lack of expertise and foresight has largely contributed to the industry’s deterioration. Oil revenues were never used for re-investment necessary to improve the industry infrastructure or, indeed, used for re-building the country’s infrastructure…This neglect was most noticeable in the vital, oil producing southern states….”

WHY
Rabia: “…The effects of wars and bad management profoundly impacted development of Iraq’s industry. The total number of wells in Iraq is around 1,500. Compare this figure with a small country like Oman, where 2,600 wells were drilled during the last 20 years. In industry terminology, large numbers of wells translate (usually) to more production. This is particularly valid for giant and super-giant fields, where reservoirs are too extensive (in length and width) to be exploited by a few wells, as would be the case for a small-to-medium North Sea reservoir…had major oil companies remained working in Iraq, the regimes would not have dared to enter into any war with Iraq’s neighbors. Accordingly, the country would have progressed and prospered in excess of the current UAE… Iraq’s exploration success rate is 2 in 3 (about 67%), compared to the world average of 1 in 10. Moreover, oil development costs are less than 50 cents/bbl, while other major costs are transportation and passage…”

Reserves over the years. (click to enlarge)

QUOTES
Rabia: “…If estimates from the Jurassic formations are not included, then Iraq’s total minimum reserves are on the order of 249 billion bbl of oil, more than twice the estimate. If one includes prospective reserves…Iraq’s total minimum reserves rise to about 324 billion bbl of oil, roughly three times the current estimate…Iraqi oil reserves are substantially higher than the quoted value of 110-115 billion bbl. At a minimum, Iraqi oil reserves may be as much as 249 billion bbl, and perhaps as high as 324 billion bbl…[making] Iraq, by far, the world’s largest country for potential oil reserves.”