IRANIAN ENERGY CATASTROPHE?

This is just the kind of story you would expect to see in a world where fossil fuel resources were peaking. It looks like politics but in a country where oil and power are essentially the same, infrastructure decays, demand rises and unrest grows until the government implodes. (And it couldn’t happen to a nicer guy than Ahmadinejad.)

Sacked Iranian minister warns of energy “catastrophe’
Stuart Williams, August 19, 2007 (AFP via Yahoo News)

WHO
Kazem Vaziri Hamaneh, just dismissed Iranian oil minister; Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

Hamaneh: He wears a much nicer jacket than Ahmadinejad.

WHAT
Hamaneh warned Ahmadinejad Iran has 15 years to rectify its current energy situation or face “a catastrophe.”

WHEN
Hamaneh’s public statements were made August 18.

WHERE
Tehran

WHY
- Hamaneh lost his job as part of Ahmadinejad’s cabinet changes in the week preceding his statements. His statements included attacks on Ahmadinejad’s government for energy policies, economic policies and personnel policies.
- Iran’s fuel situation is profoundly contradictory. It is OPEC’s 2nd biggest oil producer and yet imports its refined gasoline and is currently rationing supplies. It has the world’s 2nd largest natural gas reserves yet has heating failures in the winter and is able to export only to Turkey.
- Iran has flagrantly failed to invest in bringing its oil and gas producing and refining technology up to par.
- It is being blocked from developing nuclear power by the international community because of its refusal to cooperate on inspections intended to prevent development of nuclear weapons technology.
- Iran’s domestic energy demand nevertheless is growing rapidly. Exports of gas and oil may be impossible within a decade.

click to enlarge

QUOTES
- Hamaneh: “If we do not find a solution to the energy problem in the next 15 years, the country will face a catastrophe…I am ready to prove that if the fuel situation continues along current trends we will face an energy crisis in the future…The current pattern of consumption is a disaster for the country."
- Research centre of parliament: "It seems that for at least the next 10 years there will not be any extra gas for export. Iran is advised to remove gas export from the country's policy due to the limited production capacity…"