HOW MUCH NEW ENERGY IN THE ENERGY BILL?

These observations on behind-the-scenes energy bill negotiations are not promising. But it is possible the Vermont decision on auto emissions could create an opening. If carmakers accept the inevitability of stronger CAFE standards, it could induce negotiating on other aspects of the legislation. Right now, however, it looks like a national Renewable Electricity Standard (RES) is not winnable. Might it be smarter to go for extended income tax credits?

Hopes Dim for Measures to Conserve Energy
John M. Broder, September 13, 2007 (NY Times)

WHO
Republicans and Democrats

The article's author suggests the black square in the center labelled "Conference Committee" is "black" as in "black hole." (click to enlarge)

WHAT
Very different proposals from the House of Representatives and the Senate that must be reconciled by a conferencing process into an energy bill capable of winning President Bush’s signature, aggravated by partisan and sectional differences as well as political grievances arising from other issues, may render final energy legislation compromised beyond celebrating.

WHEN
The latest inside information suggests the members of the conference committee will not be named until late October, if there is to be a conference committee and conference process at all.

WHERE
The White House, the Senate and the House of Representatives

WHY
- The differences between the 2 houses and the 2 parties may make the conference process impossible.
- If a conference or deal-making process does produce compromise legislation, factions in the Senate may block approval with the filibuster.
- The Senate’s legislation contains improved Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFÉ) standards to 35 mpg by 2020. A House delegation led by Michigan Representative John Dingell refused its consideration.
- House legislation has a national Renewable Electricity Standard (RES) requiring US utilities to obtain 15% of its electricity from renewable sources by 2020. A Senate faction led by southeastern Republicans rejected such a proposal. Senate Republicans are also organized to resist a House Democratic proposal to shift billions of tax breaks from the oil industry to renewable energy producers and penalties for gasoline price gouging.
- Meanwhile, 300 bills have been filed in 40 states on energy efficiency, emissions of heat-trapping gases or climate change, many for RESs and improved CAFÉ standards.

One thing the article does not report on is how climate change legislation fits into the energy bill negotiations. (click to enlarge)

QUOTES
- Frank Maisano, energy lobbyist: “It’s not a pretty picture…That’s not to say that in time they won’t be able to craft a compromise. But they’re clearly not in any hurry.”
- Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R-Minn): “This is the defining issue of our time…and there is great interest and momentum percolating in the states. While we have our problems and our conflicts, we’re relatively less polarized than Congress and thus can be more nimble.”