PEAK GAS IN CANADA?

Canada’s energy board says ‘don’t worry’ but nobody is going to come out and start screaming “We’ve peaked! We’ve peaked!” This is what it’s going to look like – at first.

Canada’s gas deliverability to decline, NEB says
October 11, 2007 (Oil & Gas Journal)

WHO
Canada's National Energy Board (NEB) (Chairman Gaetan Caron); Canadian natural gas industry

From Canada's Energy Board: It's not hard to spot the trend. (click to enlarge)

WHAT
NEB statistics show a decline in natural gas “deliverability” based on decreased production.

WHEN
2006 Canadian natural gas production: 17.1 bcfd
2009 Canadian natural gas production (projected): 14.5-15.8 bcfd
2006 WCSB natural gas production: 16.2 bcfd
2009 WCSBnatural gas production (projected): 13.7 bcfd

WHERE
Most Canadian natural gas is in the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin (WCSB).

WHY
WCSB project costs went up in 2006 due to maturing resources and competition from oil sands development.
Remaining WCSB resources require complex, expensive drilling

Production costs are inexhorably climbing. (click to enlarge)

QUOTES
Caron: "The drilling pace that sustained Canadian natural gas deliverability is gone for the moment…We see cause for optimism as deeper drilling and improved techniques help producers deliver tighter gas from deeper wells…In the longer term, Canadians should rest assured that their natural gas needs will be met as other sources, such as unconventional gas, liquefied natural gas, or gas from frontier areas, enter Canada's energy market."