DOE SEES NEW ENERGY BOOMING IN ’08 AND BEYOND

In its “reference case scenario” (also described as “business as usual”), the Department of Energy (DOE)’s Energy Information Administration (EIA)’s projection for wind energy’s growth does not include ANY offshore development. ZERO. EIA also projects no production from marine energies, even as the Interior Department is granting permits to prove the technologies. Considering the facts of Peak Oil and climate change, there is likely to be no “business as usual.” Therefore, the large increases foreseen for New Energy in EIA’s fossil fuel-oriented projections underestimate, probably quite grossly, the amount of New Energy coming and the capacity of New Energy to remake the world.

Considering the widening gap between U.S. consumption and production, the demand for New Energy will drive production and when national leaders finally understand how important supportive polices can be (after the changing of the guard in the fall of 2008), New Energy will likely explode.

Most recently, only coal and New Energy production are rising to meet increased demand and the choice between those two is a no-brainer. (click to enlarge)

Annual Energy Outlook 2008
December 25, 2007 (Technology News Daily)

WHO
U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Energy Information Administration (EIA),

WHAT
DOE’s EIA, the department’s statistical information analysts, predict 23% faster growth for New Energy than previously expected in its Annual Energy Outlook 2008

Consumption necessarily follows production... (click to enlarge)

WHEN
- 2007: EIA predicted 9.9 quadrillion British Thermal Unit (Btu) equivalents (quads) of New Energy by 2030.
- 2008: EIA predicts 12.2 quads of New Energy by 2030.
- 2006: Total U.S. energy consumption was 100 quads
- 2030: Total U.S. energy consumption projected to be 123.8 quads

WHERE
This preliminary report describes only reference case (“business as usual”) scenarios. A full report, describing alternative scenarios, is expected in early 2008.

...Except when consumption EXCEEDS production. (click to enlarge)

WHY
- Hydropower (2.89 quads in 2006) will expand to 3 quads in 2015 and then level off.
- Biomass (2.97 quads in 2006) will increase to 5.52 quads in 2030 (up 86%).
- "Other” renewables (0.88 quads in 2006) triple to 2.49 quads in 2030.
- There will be huge jumps in the use of New Energy for electricity production: geothermal power will be up 88.4% by 2030, biomass will be up 900%, solar thermal will be up 400%, grid-connected solar energy will be up 7300% (!), wind power will be up 500% and biofuels, 0.5 quads in 2006, will be up 400% to 1.87 quads in 2030.
- EIA projects a 1.3% increase in electricity consumption due to increasing dependence on electronic devices.
- Due to rising production costs, EIA projects higher oil prices short term followed by a decline to $58/barrel by 2016 and then rising prices through 2030.

Here is why the choice between coal and New Energy is a no-brainer. (click to enlarge)

QUOTES
AEO2008 Overview: “…Key energy market changes identified by EIA analysts and reflected in the AEO2008 include:
- Higher prices for crude oil and natural gas
- Higher delivered energy prices, reflecting both wellhead and minemouth prices and higher costs to transport, distribute and refine fuels per unit supplied
- Slower projected growth in energy demand (particularly for natural gas but also for liquid fuels and coal)
- Faster projected growth in the use of nonhydroelctric renewable energy
- Higher domestic oil production, particularly in the near term
- Slower projected growth in energy imports, both natural gas and liquid fuels
- Slower projected growth in energy-related emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), which increase by 25 percent in the AEO2008 reference case from 2006 to 2030, as compared with a projected 35 percent over the same period in the AEO2007 reference case…”