THE RACE FOR ENERGY IN 2008

China is expected to dominate the 2008 race for resources between the emerging giants.

Victor Shum, analyst: "The Chinese go after their targets more aggressively and faster…"

He Jun, analyst: "[China produces] a lot of goods for the world and needs a lot of energy to do this…This is an unstoppable trend."

China’s oil consumption, up 5 to 10% per year since 2002, is frequently cited as a major factor in the rise of oil prices internationally. India’s consumption is not yet considered a driving force.

What IS a driving force is the desire of an emerging middle class all over Asia and in once lagging economies in Europe to live the lifestyle Americans take for granted. It is a lifestyle that demands a lot of oil.

As the price of oil rises, the price of New Energy becomes more competitive.

And as more Old Energy gets consumed, the demand for more New Energy grows.

China to lead India in 2008 energy race: analysts
Penny MacRae, December 18, 2007 (AFP via Yahoo News)

WHO
China and India

To some extent, consumption can be controlled by choices about what kind of energy to go after made in China and India. (click to enlarge)

WHAT
The emerging economies of China and India will continue to drive world energy markets. China is predicted to dominate.

WHEN
- Predictions are for 2008.
- December 2007: China selected over India as preferred bidder for South Korea's Daewoo International's Myanmar natural gas project. (Beijing promised 1.1 billion dollars for a gas pipeline.)
- India made gestures toward cooperation with China in 2005 but the efforts got nowhere in the context of a historic mutual suspicion.

WHERE
- World energy markets.
- China has been and is expected to be more effective than India at capturing energy supplies in Asia, Africa and Latin America.
- India is not giving in.

India's dependency on imports may grow even faster than China's, thereby driving world energy prices up even more than expected. (click to enlarge)

WHY
- India's democratic political system slows state-owned Oil and Natural Gas Corp (ONGC).
- China used 7.16 million barrels/day in 2006 and demand is expected to exceed the US after 2010. It imports half its oil consumption.
- India consumes 2.45 million barrels/day and imports 70%.
- China is also outspending India. State-owned China National Petroleum Company (CNPC) invested 45 billion dollars in new energy sources between 2000 and 2005. ONGC spent 3.5 billion dollars.
- China has been especially effective in obtaining Central Asian ex-Soviet oil and gas despite the Indian/Soviet Cold War alliance. India’s links with the new Russia have been complicated by its recent closeness to the US.
- India has been stepping up diplomatic, trade and spending efforts to win over allies in Africa.
- ONGC has won exploration rights in Sudan, Nigeria, Libya, Algeria and Egypt since 2004. But China has built roads, railways and petrochemical installations in Africa and has a dominating position. President Hu Jintao has made 3 African visits in less than 3 years.

Here's the problem: Sooner or later even these developing economies will have to face the hard reality of climate change. (click to enlarge)

QUOTES
- Rahul Bedi, India analyst for Jane's Defence Weekly: "The Chinese have stolen a march on the Indians. Whether it's in Myanmar or Sudan or Indonesia, the Chinese are way ahead…
- Bedi, on India’s efforts: "But India is stepping up its pace…Indian decision-making is a little slower, China has a command economy so it's more efficient, they're not accountable to parliament... they just do it…"
- Bedi, on Africa: "The Chinese have gone after the African market big-time, pumping in huge amounts…India just doesn't have that combination of flamboyance and aggression."