CHINA, INDIA & ENERGY DEMAND

Everybody knows by now that in any discussion about energy supply/demand or climate change, China and India are the elephants in the room. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has a plan: More energy efficiency, more nuclear energy and more New Energy.

Preventing India's energy from being stolen from its grid would improve efficiency. Getting China to cut back on coal is crucial.

Ironically, "clean" coal technology growth in China is being stymied by Western interests' fear of giving the booming Chinese economy that competitive leg up.

Shirong Chen, China editor, BBC News: "What if China got all this clean coal technology and their economy would develop even faster? What would happen to the big economies like the USA and India?"

This energy-hungry world is only going to get hungrier. (click to enlarge)

Both China and India have nuclear energy programs and the rest of the world is more than a little uneasy about them. Australia just announced it will not sell uranium to India because India is not a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Pact.

Meanwhile, there's a dark horse coming up on the outside in the race, New Energy. China is aggressively developing solar and India’s Suzlon is one of the world leaders in wind. China’s goal is to get 15% of its electricity from New Energy by 2020. India intends to get 10% by 2012. And nobody is taking any kind of interest except a business interest.

Leaders in the U.S. Senate last month rejected a commitment to get 15% of U.S. electricity from New Energy by 2020 on the grounds that many southeastern states could not meet that standard. Tennessee, Alabama and Mississippi aren’t capable of doing what India and China are doing?

China and India’s pressing energy crunch
Kumar Malhotra, January 15, 2008 (BBC News)

WHO
China and India; International Energy Agency (IEA)

China and India are going to use up a sizeable chunk of the world's energy in the next quarter century. (click to enlarge)

WHAT
Energy demand growth in China and India is driving world markets and shows no sign of letting up. Despite recent agreements between the 2 countries, competition for supplies is heated.

WHEN
- In 1993, China did not import oil. By 2030, it will import as much as the U.S.
- By 2030, India’s oil imports will be greater than those of Japan or the European Union.

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WHERE
- In Beijing and Delhi, the race for oil deals in Latin America, Central Asia and Africa is a critical concern.
- China seems less inhibited about doing business with governments shunned by the West like Iran, Burma and Venezuela.

WHY
- China’s economy is based on manufacturing, India’s is strongly service-based. This makes China even more energy-hungry.
- India’s more open, democratic political system puts it at a disadvantage. Ex: A nuclear deal is being blocked in India by anti-U.S. politics while China is expanding nuclear plans at the government leadership’s will. But neither country will get more than 4% of its power from nuclear in 2020.
- Both India and China are developing wind, biomass, solar and hydro-electric energy resources.
- India has enormous undeveloped hydroelectric resources.

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QUOTES
- Fatih Birol, chief economist, IEA: "The oil markets will get tighter and tighter…"
- Shirong Chen, China editor, BBC News: "I think China is already ahead in a sense in their strategic positioning in securing energy supply, ahead of India…"
- Lawrence Saez, senior lecturer, London’s School of Oriental and African Studies: "Being able to collaborate with regimes which are unfriendly to the West is something China has a great advantage in…India - even though it has a very independent foreign policy - is slightly more responsive to the democratic aspirations of some of these countries."
- Saez, recommending that India and China should stay focused on growth: "India and China do not want to be a laboratory for the West. They see that the West has developed as result of energy use. And they are quite aware that to curtail that would hurt them economically."