WHERE EMISSIONS GO

Climate change deniers make much of the incomplete information on atmospheric CO2 despite the fact that one thing is known with high certainty: At 390 parts per million (ppm), there is a thicker layer of CO2 trapping heat inside earth’s atmosphere than there has been in millions of years.

Emerging information reported here suggests the unaccounted-for CO2 has previously been absorbed by forests and oceans but these natural “sinks” are now overburdened and failing.

From 28,000 measurements/week, 2000 thru 2006, by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) via CarbonTracker: In the U.S., Mexico and Canada, 2 billion tons of CO2 is released annually. About 1/3 is absorbed by carbon sinks (forests, grasslands, crops, soil). 2/3 is either in the air or unaccounted for.

Key finding: The 2002 drought, by stunting plant growth, left 360 million EXTRA tons of CO2 in the atmosphere. John Miller, geochemist, NOAA: "We lost half our natural sink…" The Europe drought of 2003 left 500 million EXTRA tons of CO2 up there.

And as the CO2 increases, it causes wildfires and droughts that stimulate further accumulation.

The general idea of the carbon cycle: The numbers don't quite add up. (click to enlarge)

Tracking Carbon Trail To Find Why So Much Fills The Atmosphere
Robert Lee Hotz, December 28, 2007 (Wall Street Journal via Yahoo Finance)

WHO
David Crisp, senior scientist for Orbiting Carbon Observatory, Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL); Wouter Peters, atmospheric chemist, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA); John Miller, geochemist, NOAA; U.S. Climate Change Science Program; Japanese Space Agency (JSA); National Aeronautic and Space Administration (NASA); University of Colorado researchers

WHAT
Even as anthropogenic climate change becomes a more widely accepted fact and scientists around the world have stepped up efforts to account for all greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the full details of the carbon cycle remain elusive and a significant portion of emissions remain unaccounted for. But one thing is clear: CO2 is accumulating in the atmosphere at an unprecedented rate and as it accumulates, it stimulates conditions that release more.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) data collecting stations. (click to enlarge)

WHEN
- 2007 is expected join many recent years as among the hottest ever recorded.
- Next year both JSA and NASA will put up satellites to collect more CO2 data.
- The NASA/JPL $270 million Orbiting Carbon Observatory will launch in December 2008.

WHERE
- North America, which accounts for approximately 27% of world CO2 emissions, is the most closely tracked and studied region.
- GHG emissions highest in the Midwest, more than any COUNTRY except Russia, China, India, and the U.S. as a whole.
- Most CO2 absorption east of the Rocky Mountains and in northern Canadian forests.

WHY
- The emergence of the $70 billion dollar worldwide emissions trading market has added marketplace emphasis on tracking emissions to the urgencies of science.
- The U.S. Climate Change Science Program’s first State of the Carbon Cycle Report for North America (released in December 2007) affirmed NOAA findings of the failure of carbon sinks.
- From the University of Colorado’s Carbon Balance and Management report of October 2007: Southern California wildfires released 7.9 million metric tons of CO2 -- equal to 25% of the monthly fumes from every car, truck, factory and power plant in the state.

There's more to it than just CO2. (click to enlarge)

QUOTES
- David Crisp, senior scientist for Orbiting Carbon Observatory, JPL: "A quarter of all the CO2 that is emitted is going somewhere, and we don't know where…That raises a lot of red flags."
- Wouter Peters, atmospheric chemist, NOAA: "Climate extremes can have a major effect on the amount of carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere…"