ENERGY MARKET MAVEN: NEW ENERGY WILL BE EVEN BIGGER

Venerable energy industry experts Cambridge Energy Research Associates’ Crossing the Divide: The Future of Clean Energy predicts huge investment in New Energy over the coming decades. Why? There are the usual suspects: (1) High oil and natural gas prices, (2) unremittingly rising demand for and competition for energy resources in emerging economies and (3) climate change concerns.

And there are less apparent ones: (1) Government incentives, subsidies, mandates for New Energy and (2) the cost of emissions imposed by government or regional systems.

The Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA) summary of New Energy drivers explains why the U.S. is lagging so far behind Europe and Japan in the development of New Energy, especially when viewed through the prism of the Great Debate taking place in the Senate about whether or not to include extensions for New Energy incentives in the economic stimulus bill (after the Senate already refused to extend them in the 2007 energy bill). The Senate, influenced by a fossil fuel-oriented White House and fossil fuel lobbies paying the freight, has been absolutely niggardly with incentives and subsidies for New Energy. It has refused to mandate a national base level of New Energy with a Renewable Electricity Standard (RES) and it has yet to impose a cost on emissions like the EU’s cap-and-trade system.

CERA cites 3 promising newly emerging New Energies: (1) Deep geothermal, (2) wave/tide/current generation and (3) concentrating solar thermal power plants. It left out another the U.S. has yet to tap: Offshore wind. These are all New Energies in which the U.S. is rich. It is not too late for the nation to get into the race for 21st Century energy.

The Senate vote on the New Energy tax credit extensions may come today and will almost certainly be this week. Tell Congress to keep the New Energy incentives in the stimulus package at: Power of Wind

From the CERA report. The Launch Pad scenario favors New Energy development. Asian Phoenix sees Asia dominant. In Global Fissures development slows due to world conflicts. (click to enlarge)

Group: Clean Energy Investments to Jump
John Wilen, February 5, 2008 (AP via Forbes)

WHO
Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA)

WHAT
CERA’s Crossing the Divide: The Future of Clean Energy predicts that clean energy technologies will generate more than $7 trillion in investment in the coming decades.

WHEN
The CERA report sees investment in New Energy reaching $7 trillion by 2030.

CERA co-founder Joseph Stanislaw presented this to a Houston oil industry group in December. (click to enlarge)

WHERE
The CERA reports describes regions of New Energy “bubbling” with development: biofuels in Brazil, solar in Germany, wind in Spain.
It predicts the U.S., China and the EU, along with Japan and Brazil, will be dominant players.

WHY
- High oil and natural gas prices, unremittingly rising demand for and competition for energy resources and climate change concerns will drive investors to New Energy.
- Government incentives, subsidies, mandates for New Energy and the cost of emissions imposed by government or regional systems also drive New Energy growth.
- CERA predicts wind (of the New Energies) will grow the most, followed by solar and biofuels.
- New Energy presently provides 6.5% of U.S. power. Nuclear provides 8%.
- Nuclear and hydro are expected to take half of the $7 trillion.

CERA sees big growth in biofuels. (click to enlarge)

QUOTES
Daniel Yergin, chairman, CERA/Pulitzer-prize winning author, “The Prize”: "We are seeing a major shift in public opinion…This is providing a vital impetus that is moving clean technology across the great divide of cost, proven results, scale and maturity that has separated it from markets served by mainstream technologies."