DID EV BOOSTERS SEE THE OPENING?

As reported by NewEnergyNews last week (see PLUG-IN VEHICLES: DIABOLIC SABOTAGE AND DASTARDLY PERFIDY), the California Air Resources Board (CARB) dealt Electric Vehicle (EV) enthusiasts a deep hurt when it voted March 27 to reduce from 25,000 to 7,500 the number of zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) required of the major automakers (GM, Ford, Chrysler, Toyota, Honda, Nissan ) for California from 2012 to 2014. CARB also reduced the staff-recommended 75,000 PHEV requirement for the state to 58,000 in the 2012 to 2014 period. Only 4% of the cars sold in California in 2014 will have to be ZEVs.

Reaction was quick and sharp. Chelsea Sexton, executive director, Plug-in America: "It's a huge blow…They sent the message to the carmakers that they can always get what they want from the board."

The silver lining to CARB’s decision at first went unnoticed: The motivation for automakers to bring hydrogen vehicles to market was also off the table. Dave Barthmuss, spokesman, GM: "We can build 2,500 or 25,000 hydrogen vehicles…But without adequate fueling infrastructure, we're going to be extremely limited in where we can place them in California."

This leaves the market wide open for the imminently appealing plug-in hybrid electric vehicle that many see as the bridge to battery-powered transportation. This very well might have been CARB’s intention.

Tom Cackette, deputy executive officer, CARB: "We're trying to force people to do more than they normally would…Five years ago, plug-ins weren't on anyone's mind. Getting them to market early will open the way for pure electric vehicles as well."

The problem with this self-justifying logic is that CARB’s decision won’t really have an impact until 2012 while GM and Toyota are bringing their PHEVs to the market in 2010. They will have to duke it out in the marketplace and CARB's latest change of strategy and emphasis is likely to have little impact.

Theoretically, CARB's job is to percieve long term needs and set policy toward filling them. EV boosters tend to see CARB’s decision not as a proactive move in favor of PHEVs but as a typical waffling hedge of its bets. Nevertheless, the consequence of CARB’s decision is a better short-term market for PHEVs.

CARB will now hedge again by looking at how to create a hydrogen-fueling infrastructure, a move welcomed by hydrogen boosters. Jamie Knapp, coordinator, ZEV Alliance: "This is the first formal proceeding in which the Air Resources Board has talked about infrastructure…"

Wait a few mintues, Jamie. CARB may change its mind.

Nevermind CARB - there's a world to win. (click to enlarge)

California Ruling to Revive the (Hybrid) Electric Car
Kicking Tires, April 2, 2008 (Cars.com)
and
Hydrogen Car Prospects Sputter
Andy Stone, March 31, 2008 (Forbes)

WHO
California Air Resources Board (CARB); General Motors (GM); Toyota;

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WHAT
CARB revised its zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) mandate reducing from 25,000 to 7,500 the number of ZEVs required of the major automakers for California. CARB also reduced the staff-recommended 75,000 plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) requirement for the state to 58,000. In recognizing the way this takes all motivation for the automakers to market EVs in the state, EV enthusiasts failed to notice how it also disincentivized hydrogen vehicle production, leaving the market open to PHEVs.

WHEN
- The CARB vote was March 27. It determines requirements from the major automakers for the period beginning in 2012 and ending in 2014.
- This is the 4th revision to the 1990-instituted ZEV mandate.

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WHERE
The CARB vote covers only requirements on the major automakers for the state of California but is seen as a national market-driving determinative.

WHY
- GM’s Chevy Volt and Saturn Vue PHEVs remain on track to reach showrooms in 2010.
- A PHEV version of the Prius is promised by Toyota “in 2 years.”
- There are 24 hydrogen-fueling stations in California but only one "700-bar pump" to fully fuel GM's 180-mile range high-compression hydrogen-requiring Equinox.
- The big 6: GM, Ford, Chrysler, Toyota, Honda, Nissan.
- Automakers selling below 60,000 cars/year in California are exempt. (ex: Mercedes, BMW, VW)

click to enlarge

QUOTES
- Spencer Quong, vehicle analyst, Union of Concerned Scientists: "Overall, we're disappointed…The board's changes resulted in a loss of about 14,000 pure ZEVs and plug-in hybrids…"
- Kicking Tires: “The reasoning for the change of heart is that California doesn’t expect to have a big enough hydrogen infrastructure to support that many vehicles…”