RUSSIA, LIKE CHINA, INDIA & U.S., WON’T CUT SPEW

Scientists with the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) say it is imperative that world greenhouse gas (GhG) emissions peak BEFORE 2025 in order to head off the worst impacts. An April 28 announcement by Russia makes it unanimous: None of the 4 biggest GhG spewers will commit to doing so.

Either get ready for droughts, floods, heatwaves and rising seas OR figure out a way to turn the Big 4 around OR build a space ship.

European Union (EU) leaders are opting for none of the above and holding on to blind hope. Barbara Helfferich, spokeswoman, EU Executive Commission: "We hope that reason prevails…"

Right. Like in the Darfur situation.

One good thing about the Russia announcement: It made President Bush’s empty promise to stop U.S. emissions growth by 2025 (but not before) look positively noble.

Russia and U.S. leaders see their nations in stringent economic competition with China and India. They will not commit to cutting emissions unless the rising Asian powers do so. China and India will not, putting national economic growth out of poverty ahead of any international responsibilities. They demand the right to the same emissions-intensive economic expansion Russia and the U.S. experienced in the 19th and 20th centuries.

They also suggest Russia and the U.S. consider bringing per capita emissions down toward Chinese and Indian levels.

A recent report suggested a 2-tonne-per-capita level must replace the current 7-tonne-per-person level to turn global climate change around.

Reason to believe: Much will change after the November U.S. election. All of the current presidential candidates are more amenable to international agreement on the climate change than President Bush. If the U.S. shifts its position, the other 3 may very well respond.

Nick Mabey, head, London environmental think-tank E3G: "You have to take the Russian position with a pinch of salt…They have a falling population so the pressure on emissions is much lower than in the United States where population is rising…And the Russians still have a lot of potential for energy savings."

Russia objected to the Kyoto Accords at every stage and then ratified them.

Bill Hare, scientist, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research: "In my experience Russian negotiators want to be good global citizens and that is something we can work with…We must wait for a new administration and Congress before we see what the United States is ready to meaningfully discuss ... No one expects China, or less India, to take on binding national caps."

Russia isn't the problem. (click to enlarge)

Russian climate plans show tough path to new UN treaty
Alister Doyle (w/Catherine Evans), 30 April 2008 (Reuters)

WHO
The United States, China, Russia and India

click to enlarge

WHAT
The four biggest greenhouse gas (GhG) emissions generators in the world have now announced they are against regulations to create timely GhG cuts.

WHEN
Leaders of the process for developing new climate agreements for the next phase of the Kyoto Protocols, beginning in January 2013 hoped to have an agreement by the end of 2009. With this resistance from the 4 biggest players, that is unlikely.



WHERE
- The new agreement was scheduled for the Copenhagen meeting in December 2009.
- If GhGs are not cut globally, there is no point in cutting them locally.

WHY
- The Big 4 all refuse the kind of binding caps EU countries and Japan currently have under present Kyoto guidelines.
- The cap the EU EC wants is to bring GhGs at least 20% or even 30% below 1990 levels by 2020. Even better would be 40%.
- China and India generate high gross GhG levels but very low per capita levels.
- Russia’s emissions were 2.0 billion tonnes in 1998, following the collapse of the Soviet Union and a loss of much industrial activity. By 2005, following a period of economic growth, its emissions were up to 2.13 billion tonnes, still 28.7% below the Kyoto 1990 baseline. It should have no real problem meeting its Kyoto targets for 2008 and 2012.



QUOTES
- Bill Hare, scientist, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research: "The positions ... are just the tip of the iceberg of the problems ahead…"
- Barbara Helfferich, spokeswoman, EU Executive Commission: "Climate change needs to be fought globally. We need everybody on board and we regret the fact that any country would preclude any binding commitment at this stage…"