EUROPE WIND: 25% BY 2030

The American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) has leaked a report finding the U.S. has passed Germany and is now the biggest wind energy producer in the world. Germany still has more capacity (22,000 megawatts) but the U.S. produces more electricity with its capacity (17,000 megawatts) because it has stronger, more consistent winds.

This year Germany is expected to add ~1,600 megawatts while the U.S. will add 6,000+ megawatts.

Randy Swisher, executive director, AWEA: "The numbers themselves are not what matters…What matters is that the wind industry around the world recognizes that the U.S. is the largest market."

It's about much more than bragging rights. Most of the world's leading wind companies are not U.S. companies, according to Swisher, and they will need to move manufacturing jobs here as the U.S. industry grows. AWEA estimates 4,000 wind-related manufacturing jobs were added in the U.S. in 2007-08.

O.K.! Cue the country singers! “Proud to be an American/where at least we’ve got the wind…”

Hang on, hang on. The U.S. gets 1% to 2% of its electricity from wind; Germany gets 5% to 6%. Denmark gets 20%! The U.S. population is 300 million+ and Germany’s population is 82 million+. By rights, the U.S. should have 4 times Germany’s capacity. If the U.S. has such great wind, what’s the problem?

The problem: During the first decade of the 21st century, U.S. energy policy has been guided by a national leadership composed of fossil fools mired in 1950s thinking, blocking New Energy initiatives and protecting the strongholds of oil, gas, coal and nuclear.

A report released late in July by a group created by the European Wind Energy Association (EWEA) calls for the European wind energy industry to plan for providing 25% of Europe’s electricity by 2030. This, despite bringing a passel of undeveloped Eastern European economies into the EU during this same period.

Surely what the EU can do for Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, the U.S. can do in spite of Mississippi, Alabama and Louisiana and the fossil fools they elect to the Senate.

Much more interesting than that proposition is the EWEA report’s emphasis on developing offshore wind and deepwater offshore wind: The report expects the bulk of European wind energy generation to come from offshore wind installations by mid-century.

Meanwhile, even liberals like the Kennedys are resisting the first offshore installations in the U.S.

R&D investment by EU nations and EU wind companies will pay off over the next 2 decades. (click to enlarge)

Executive Summary: Strategic Research Agenda; Market Deployment Strategy from 2008 To 2030
July 24, 2008 (European Wind Energy Technology Platform)
and
Survey: U.S. is top producer of wind power
Matt Nauman, July 30, 2008 (San Jose Mercury News)

WHO
The European Wind Energy Technology Platform (TPWind)

WHAT
The Strategic Research Agenda; Market Deployment Strategy from 2008 To 2030 from TPWind sees the European market providing 25% of EU electricity, 300 gigawatts (GW), within the next quarter century.

click to enlarge

WHEN
- 2006: TPWind launched.
- 2030: 5 factors expected to drive the energy market (climate change, oil & gas depletion, high cost & unpredictable availability of fuel, CO2 allowance price, sustainability)
- Wind energy is expected to develop in three phases:
Phase 1, To 2020: Western Europe market matures, central and eastern European market develops. Low labour cost countries become competitive. Offshore wind energy deployment in large scale begins. 180 GW of installed capacity (40 GW offshore).
Phase 2, 2020-30: Onshore and offshore markets mature. Further cost reductions. Higher penetration technology. Large scale development of deepwater offshore technology. European exports grow. 300 GW of installed capacity in 2030 (annual installations 20 GW, half offshore and 7.5 GW re-powering.
Phase 3, 2030-50: Offshore and re-powering become main European markets. Strong European exports.

WHERE
- Offshore wind installations are in place and being built in Europe but only planned in the rest of the world. European offshore capacity will expand in the next decade and mature in the following decade.
- European deepwater offshore technology is expected to mature in Phase 2.
- Offshore and deepwater offshore wind is expected to be the primary source of European wind energy in Phase 3.

WHY
- TPWind’s purpose: Bring down the social, environmental and technological costs of wind energy by identifying and prioritizing areas for innovation and research and development (R&D).
- TPWind’s 4 areas of focus: (1) wind conditions, (2) wind turbine technology, (3) wind energy integration, (4) offshore deployment/operation.
(1) Wind conditions and the ‘3% vision’: Predictions with an uncertainty of less than 3% for (a) annual energy production (‘resource’); (b) wind conditions affecting turbines (‘design conditions’); (c) forecasting for power production and conditions.
(2) Wind technology: Make wind the most cost efficient energy source on the market by 2030.
(3) Integration: Get high electricity market penetration with low integration costs and sustain grid reliability.
(4) Offshore: 4 objectives. (a) 10% of European electricity from offshore wind; (b) offshore costs competitive with other sources; (c) mature technology for 50m depth sites any distance from shore; (d) proven deepwater technology.
- Areas of focus for the Market Deployment Strategy: (1) Enabling market deployment, (2) Cost reduction, (3) Adapting policies, (4) Optimising administrative procedures, (5) Integrating wind into the natural environment, (6) Ensuring public support

The future of EU wind: Bigger turbines farther offshore. (click to enlarge)

QUOTES
- TPWind: “Developments will take place within the current context of decentralisation, decarbonisation and globalisation. “
- TPWind: “The European industry will continue to lead the global market. Depending on future electricity demand, some 25% of EU electricity consumption, or a total of 300 GW, will be provided by wind, corresponding to annual CO2 savings of nearly 600 Mt. This will be supported by an optimal industrial expansion in Europe. The European power markets will be much better integrated, with full separation in ownership of transmission and production activities, larger inter-connectors, an effective wholesale market and well-functioning balancing markets.”