SOUTH AFRICA: CANARY IN THE COAL MINE, SINGING FOR NEW ENERGY

Rolling blackouts started hitting South Africa (S.A.) early in 2008. It quickly became clear Eskom, the country’s major utility, no longer had the capacity to meet peak energy demand. The crisis interrupted the country’s slow, steady, ~5% per year economic growth upward from the pits of the apartheid days. As the crisis continues, South Africans are anxious. And with good cause: The International Monetary Fund predicts S.A.'s 2008 growth will drop to 3.8% or lower. Without adequate energy, the future cannot be brighter. (See S. AFRICA, FACING SHORTS, TO TRY NEW ENERGY)

The significance: S.A. is the canary in the coal mine. Energy shortages are no longer hypothetical. For S.A., energy shortages are here. For many more nations, they very much could be in the offing.

S.A. has long depended on its rich supply of coal to fuel its growth. Eskom now produces 90% of the nation’s power from coal plants. But coal is not enough. And in a carbon constrained world, it is going to get more expensive.

Though S.A. has long coastlines with rich wind and wave assets and large empty regions of sun-saturated desert, it has developed no New Energy until this year, when a 4-turbine wind facility went into operation near Cape Town. (See WIND GOES TO WORK FOR SOUTH AFRICA) S.A. is also now studying solar and wave energies. (See SOUTH AFRICA WANTS WAVES and TURN TOWARD SOLAR IN DESPERATE S. AFRICA)

With the rolling blackouts, a light went on in S.A. leaders’ thinking: Time for New Energy. It appears they will use the urgency of global climate change and the climate change-inducing emissions generated by dirty coal as an added motivation to move the populace.

The new plan, which won’t have all specifics filled in until 2009, includes (1) a tariff system and other measures to incentivize the development of New Energy; (2) reducing transport energy consumption and emissions w/stringent fuel efficiency standards and the promotion of hybrid electric vehicles; (3) shifting to cleaner-burning coal w/ more stringent thermal efficiency and emissions standards; (4) a possible tax on greenhouse gas emissions (GhGs) with the revenues going to fund New Energy development.

The plan has been endorsed by the cabinet but parliament must still approve it. Finance officials are investigating ways of implementing the tax.

Marthinus van Schalkwyk, Environment Minister, S.A.: "This Cabinet decision is sending a very strong message that, as a government and country, we are committing ourselves to a low carbon economy…"

Morne Du Plessis, CEO, World Wildlife Fund South Africa: "This statement signals clear recognition by government as a whole that the transformational change required in response to global warming is fully consistent with addressing immediate development needs and inequality within our society…"

If this announcement is to be believed, the energy crisis and the confrontation with global climate change have put the heretofore coal-addicted S.A. through a veritable identity crisis and it has come out a different country.

Though S.A.'s pain is poignant, the change is welcome. The question: Is this what it will take to generate change to New Energy in fossil fuel addicts around the world? Or will they hear the canary singing?

About the time Eskom's generation started falling short of peak demand, S. Africans started thinking about New Energy. (click to enlarge)

South Africa plans shift from coal for energy
Clare Nullis, July 29, 2008 (AP via USA Today)
and
SAfrica’s ambitious climate change strategy may include carbon tax
Sibongile Khumal, August 3, 2008 (AFP via Yahoo News)

WHO
South Africa (S.A.) government (Marthinus van Schalkwyk, Environment Minister)

WHAT
Faced with growing energy shortages and rising energy demand, S.A. has announced the concepts in a new energy program that will move away from dirty coal and toward the development of New Energy. It will include mandatory efficiency measures and possibly a tax on greenhouse gas emissions (GhGs).

S. Africa has great solar resources. (click to enlarge)

WHEN
- Environment Minister van Schalkwyk announced the concept of the new plan July 29. Specifics will follow in 2009.
- S.A. wants developed countries to cut emissions 25% to 40% of 1990 levels by 2025, 85% to 90% by 2050.
- With action now, S.A. can stabilize GhGs by 2025 and cut back from there on.
- Without action now, GhGs could quadruple by 2050.
- 1970 and 2004: Human-generated GhGs up 70%
- S.A. GhGs predicted to grow to 550 million tonnes/year by 2025

WHERE
- Western S.A.: More drought and declining crop yields.
- Eastern S.A.: More torrential rain and flood-related devastation.
- Kruger National Park: 25%+ extinction of mammal/bird species, decimated butterfly populations.
- Cape Town: End of fruit/wine industries, fynbos vegetation devastated.
(Predictions based on estimated 4.5-5.5 degrees F. temp rise)

WHY
- The plan calls for S.A.’s future energy to come from New Energy, nucleasr energy and “clean” coal.
- S.A. presently gets 90% of its electricity from dirty coal and runs the biggest coal-to-liquid fuels program in the world.
- Part of S.A.’s energy crunch is due to its development of power-hungry industry such as aluminum smelters.
- Environmental benefits are expected to offset economic costs. Government models predict no net job losses. S.A. has ~30% unemployment.
- Though the new energy plan ends the planning of new dirty coal plants, it allows one scheduled to come on line in 2013 to go forward, as well as the continued retrofitting and expansion 2 others now under way.
- The plan specifically calls for the building of “clean” coal plants (equipped with carbon-capture-and-storage technology) and nuclear plants.
- The UN IPCC found global climate change is “unequivocal” and there is a 90% probability human activity is the cause.

click to enlarge

QUOTES
- Marthinus van Schalkwyk, Environment Minister, S.A.: "We are saying to business and society at large that we have to move away from dirty coal as a dominant energy source…The longer we wait the more expensive it will become…"
- Marthinus van Schalkwyk, Environment Minister, S.A.: "The world faces a global climate emergency. It is now clear that only action by both developed and developing countries can prevent the climate crisis from deepening…"
- Marthinus van Schalkwyk, Environment Minister, S.A.: "The aim is to limit global temperature increases to two degrees above pre-industrial levels…"
- Andre Fourie, chief executive, National Business Initiative of S.A.: "The time is right for the country's private sector to show leadership by partnering with government to develop a solutions-driven national climate change mitigation and adaptation response…The cost of inaction far outweighs the cost of mitigating the effects of climate change."
- Harald Winkler, climate change department professor, University of Cape Town: "Our emissions per capita are higher than many other developing countries. South Africa's emissions per capita are also high, due to our coal-based energy system…Our analysis shows that putting a price on carbon has the single largest impact on emissions. By using the price signal, it sends signals to all actors in the economy, and can shift behaviour…"