RUSSIANS WANT NEW ENERGY & PUTIN WANTS NUKES

A recent poll showed 57% of Russians see New Energy as a more promising answer to the question of their nation's future energy needs than new oil development. 19% prefer oil. Only 7% of Russians see nuclear energy as the best solution for Russia’s future. While the poll was being taken and published, Prime Minister Putin was announcing his plan to use oil revenues to finance 26 new nuclear power plants over the next 12 years.

With the price of oil falling and the cost of new nuclear plants rising, how will Putin respond to his people's preferences? And how will he pay? The Prime Minister may not take the voice of the Russian people very seriously, but even Putin has to pay.

An estimate puts the economic potential of Russia’s wind energy at 260 billion kilowatt-hours/year or 30% of Russia’s current power production. The country is generating only 1.5% of its power from all its New Energy assets at present and that is almost entirely from hydro. Russia's wind is an enormous wellspring of untapped power awaiting its moment.

Russia’s stated energy strategy does not include New Energy goals other than hydro but Russian New Energy advocates see some hope in the draft Federal Budget for 2009-2011 which predicts there will be subsidies for specific projects.

A Bellona Foundation report on New Energy in Russia pointed out that the 2 keys to New Energy development are (1) government policy that supports New Energy and (2) specifying national New Energy goals. Russia has neither and is lagging behind the EU nations that have supportive policies and specific goals in shifting away from coal and oil.

Russia’s world-leading oil reserves is the obvious explanation for its slow turn to New Energy. But oil runs out.

Mr. Putin is smart enough to know his nation's oil plenty will sooner or later peak. His conduct in recent years suggests an apparent nostalgia for Soviet ways and means. Maybe its time for a 5-year plan for New Energy.

Russia’s resources

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Regional governments and private businesses in Russia are aiming for wind energy
Anna Kireeva (translated by Charles Digges), September 15, 2008 (Bellona Foundation)
and
New poll shows renewable energy popular in Russia, despite Putin’s nuclear ambitions
Victoria Kopeikina and Charles Digges, July 31, 2008 (Bellona Foundation)

WHO
Vladimir Putin, Prime Minister, Russia; The Russian people; Fund for Social Opinion (FOM); Murmansk Shipping Company (Alexander Medvedev, general director/Nikolai Filipyev, chief engineer); RusGidro, the state New Energy agency; the Russian Duma; Monowai Energy (Vadim Rezvy, Managing Partner)

WHAT
Prime Minister Putin’s goal is to use Russian oil revenues to build new nuclear plants while the Russian people favor the development of New Energy. RusGidro’s goal is for Russia to obtain 4-to-5% of its power from New Energy sources. A new federal law calls for policies to incentivize New Energy and a segment of the federal budget is dedicated to funding incentives. Several companies are developing assets.

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WHEN
- 25 years ago: During “Soviet times” river tow barges used wind energy to generate onboard electricity.
- 2010: EU’s target is to go from 6% to 12% of its power from New Energy sources.
- Over the next 12 years: Putin would build 26 new nuclear plants.
- Over the next 50 years: Russia’s oil reserves expected to be exhausted.

WHERE
Independent of government policy or incentives, wind installations are being used in Kaliningrad, the Krasnoyarsk Region, the Nenets Autonomous Region, the Komi Republic, in Bashkiria, the Rostov Region, on the Kamchatka Peninsula, in Chukotka and in many cities.

WHY
- 22% of Russians want solar energy to replace oil.
- 19% of Russians want hydroelectric to replace oil.
- 7% of Russians want nuclear.
- 57% of Russians see New Energy as more promising than new oil development.
- 19% prefer oil to New Energy.
- 13% see New Energy potential as a replacement for peaking oil.
- The Murmansk Shipping Company is using small wind devices on its boats to charge batteries and is interested in capturing wind to drive its ships and barges.
20 alkaline batteries used to light the barges are recharged with wind power every 1-2 months but it is a difficult, cumbersome process on the boat.
- The Duma will consider legislation to incentivize the development of New Energy.
- A feed-in tariff pays New Energy producers with systems smaller than 25 megawatts.
- Russia also has a “green certificates” program.
- Monowai Energy is Russia’s first New Energy company. It will initiate a New Energy market and set per kilowatt-hour prices for electricity generated from New Energy.
- Monowai Energy has engineering schematics for New Energy plants in 9 Russian regions.
- It is planning a “megawatt class” 50-megawatt wind installation for Yeisk and will modernize the 4-megawatt Vorkutsk Renewable Energy Station.

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QUOTES
- Nikolai Filipyev, chief engineer, Murmansk Shipping Company: “We have tried to use wind installations on our vessels to charge alkaline batteries… After the installation of one windmill (for the battery recharging) on one vessel we noticed that less battery power was required”
- Nina Lesikhina, energy projects coordinator, Bellona Murmansk: “Without [a legislative base and effective policy], neither Russian companies nor western investors will succeed in initiating large scale use of ecologically clean energy sources that can and must become the alternative to dangerous nuclear energy and polluting coal energy…”
- Prime Minister Putin: “A terrific amount of money - more than 40 billion dollars - is to be allocated from the state budget for development of the nuclear energy sector and the nuclear industry by 2015…We’ll have to build 26 major generating units in Russia in the next 12 years - about as many as were built in the entire Soviet period.”