SOLAR MARKET REPORT

Here’s the proposition the press release describing a new solar energy report opens with:

“Adoption of solar energy has a simple market driving force. If people do not adopt solar energy, the planet will become unfit for human habitation…”

Makes the report sound like pretty compelling stuff, eh? Has to be. The pdf of the report costs 3531 euros ($5,114).

It is true that solar energy’s re-emergence has been more or less simultaneous with rising awareness of global climate change but it has also been more or less simultaneous with rising fossil fuel prices. Which is more determinative is something for the academicians.

What is most important is that the development of solar energy is urgent and development will come from those who understand the marketplace.

Growth forecast: The report predicts solar energy to grow from 0.3% of U.S. energy to 15% by the middle of the next decade.

From the description of the report:“Residential solar markets at $2.5 billion in 2007 are anticipated to reach $39.3 billion by 2014… Units raise from 74 million solar panels in 2007 to 25.6 billion units in 2014.”

Some interesting observations from the description of the report: (1) Energy generation has become as central an environmental issue as air and water quality. (2) Solar energy will dominate wind, geothermal, and nuclear solutions. (3) 2.6 gigawatts (GW) of solar energy/square mile (average) on the earth's surface. (4) As thin film panels become price competitive, market segmentation will dissipate. (5) Lithium ion batteries make thin film solar a viable transportation energy.

Special note: The report sees the primary uses of residential solar systems as (1) lighting and (2) charging electric vehicles.

Thin film has already begun emerging as the investors' choice. (click to enlarge)

Solar Residential Panel Market Shares, Forecasts, and Strategies for 2008-2014
September 3, 2008 (Business Wire via MarketWatch)

WHO
Research and Markets; WinterGreen Research, Inc.;

WHAT
The WinterGreen report Solar Residential Panel Market Shares, Forecasts, and Strategies, 2008-2014 distributed by Research and Markets forecasts high growth for the solar energy industry in the next 6 years and details where and how that growth will take place.

A thin film residential installation. (click to enlarge)

WHEN
World energy demand is expected to double in the next 30 years.

WHERE
Residential uses of solar energy will represent a significant part of the forecast growth.

WHY
- The report costs 3531 euros (pdf) or 4601 euros (licensed).
- Residential solar, in combination with traditional grid electricity as a “hybrid” system, offers partial energy independence for homes that have it.
- Battery storage will increasingly replace the sending of electricity from residential systems to the grid but hybrid systems will persist.
- Residential systems will be used for lighting and electric vehicle charging.
- Solar panel size is a tradeoff cost versus power capacity.
- A typical US home uses 13,000 kilowatt-hours(kWh)/year or 5 kilowatts peak (kWp).
- Low efficiency of thin film (10%) is irrelevant if it is across available surfaces.
- Storage capacity is crucial.

Advances in thin film production capacity will win it a larger portion of the solar market. (click to enlarge)

QUOTES
- From the description of the report: “Key Topics Covered: -- RESIDENTIAL SOLAR PANEL MARKET EXECUTIVE SUMMARY -- SOLAR RESIDENTIAL MARKET DESCRIPTION AND MARKET DYNAMICS -- RESIDENTIAL SOLAR MARKET SHARES AND MARKET FORECASTS -- RESIDENTIAL SOLAR PRODUCTS -- RESIDENTIAL SOLAR TECHNOLOGY -- RESIDENTIAL SOLAR PANELS COMPANY PROFILES -- SOLAR COMPANIES”
- A part of the thin film manufacturing process, detailed in the description of the report: "Thin film solar sputtering technology achieves physical vapor deposition which takes an ion and accelerates it. In this manner, the sputtering is used to knock out a target, depositing uniform films at high rates.”
- From the description of the report: “Growth comes not only because solar power is the cheapest power source which it will be in many cases, but because it fulfills a variety of convenience needs, not the least of which is a way to attack global warming. Every large enterprise has adopted a green strategy in response to public demand for better energy solutions.”