NewEnergyNews: TURBINE MARKET WILL KEEP BOOMING

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    Founding Editor Herman K. Trabish

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    Monday, September 08, 2008

    TURBINE MARKET WILL KEEP BOOMING

    Talk about walking the walk: Hillpoint Energy – a market research firm – took a look at the data on the wind energy industry and launched Hillpoint Wind Power to develop its own wind turbine design.

    Its report on projects for the wind turbine components and systems manufacturing market explains why. The market is expected to grow 40.4% in the next 5 years. Several states are expected to see market growth of over 50%. California’s market will grow over 90%, Minnesota’s over 80%.

    The entire report and separate chapters are available for purchase. The detailed research may not make good bedtime reading except for insomniacs but the headlines could keep almost anybody with the dream of striking it rich in the New Energy boom awake at night.

    Footnote: There is no mention of it in the materials about the Hillpoint Energy report but NewEnergyNews readers should be aware that all predictions about market growth are subject to revision if Congress fails to extend the New Energy tax credits due to expire at the end of this year.


    click to enlarge

    Hillpoint Energy Estimates US Wind Turbine Market Size at Over US$60 Billion by 2013; BCC Research Commissions Hillpoint Energy's Ben Spitz to Forecast Potential Explosive Growth of Wind Energy Installations
    September 4, 2008 (Hillpoint Energy/Business Wire via MarketWatch)

    WHO
    BCC Research; Hillpoint Energy (Ben Spitz, CEO/report author)

    WHAT
    Spitz’s report, Wind Turbines: The US Market, has just been published by BCC Research. It details the remarkable growth expected in the wind turbine components and systems field for the coming 5 years, predicting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 40.4%.

    From AWEA. (click to enlarge)

    WHEN
    2007: Wind turbine components and systems market value of $7.87 billion
    2008: Wind turbine components and systems market value of $11.16 billion
    2013: Wind turbine components and systems market value of $60.90 billion

    WHERE
    - Top 10 state spenders for wind turbine technology: Texas, California, Iowa, Minnesota, Washington, Oregon, Colorado, New York, Kansas and Illinois.
    - BCC Research is based in Wellesley, MA.
    - Hillpoint Energy is based in Cedarhurst, NY

    WHY
    - Cost of the report: $4,850.
    - The report’s "Overview" chapter effectively summarizes the data without the research details. The complete report is 228 pages.
    - Texas is the biggest state market ($2.4 billion+ in 2007, an estimated $3.0 billion in 2008). Its expected CAGR of 38.0% should produce a $15.2 billion by 2013.
    - Texas was 2nd to Colorado in 2007 ($1.2 billion+) but has not recorded any wind turbine installations in 2008. Its CAGR projects to a $3.7 billion market value for 2013.
    - California has been a testing ground for new wind technology in the past and is expected to see a surge in the coming years and a CAGR of 90.8%. Its market value is predicted to go from $676.0 million (projected, 2008) to $17.1 billion (projected, 2013).
    - Other states among the current top 10 markets expected to have impressive CAGRs: Minnesota (81.2%), Illinois (68.6%), Washington (54.1%), Oregon (29.0%)

    Growth means jobs. (click to enlarge)

    QUOTES
    Ben Spitz, CEO, Hillpoint Energy: "Wind power is a key clean energy source that is poised to make significant inroads into mainstream electrical power production… Worldwide electrical demand is unprecedented, the economics of wind energy are becoming more attractive and the technical obstacles including transmission and storage are being worked on aggressively. The results of greater penetration of wind powered electrical generation will be lower electrical costs, especially after the capital investments have been recouped, as well as significantly lower environmental impact as compared to other electrical generation technologies."

    1 Comments:

    At 10:31 PM, Blogger BSpitz said...

    Nice synopsis. Just one note: the report does discuss briefly the Production Tax Credit issue (pages 8 and 23). All recent announced wind farm projects had been initiated knowing that the PTC was still not extended. My conclusion (and that of many others) is that had there been a longer term PTC in place, growth would have been even greater.

    Another big issue is whether trasmission will be able to keep pace with the expected growth. This is something the utilities will need to tackle in any case as they bring new needed capacity (from any source) online.

    Let's hope our congressmen get their act together and not only extend the PTC but lock in a longer-term incentive to make wind power a serious part of our electrical generation.

    Ben Spitz

     

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