NEW ENERGY HAS HUGE POTENTIAL, DON’T LET IT KEEP SLIPPING AWAY—REPORT

The potential economic opportunity in New Energy may be, it turns out, even greater than that touted by President-elect Barack Obama, Noble laureate and former Vice President Al Gore, 3-time Pultizer Prize winner Thomas Friedman and a parade of other authorities.

Green Collar Jobs in the U.S. and Colorado, a new report from the American Solar Energy Society (ASES) and Management Information Services, Inc. (MISI), is a comprehensive assessment of the economic impacts nationally and in the state of Colorado of what it labels Renewable Energy (RE) and Energy Efficiency (EE).

The contribution of RE&EE to the U.S. economy in 2007 was significant: 9 million+ jobs (95% in private industry), $1,045 billion in revenue. It grew 3 times as fast as the overall economy from 2006 to 2007. Yet these numbers are nothing compared to the ASES/MISI estimate of what RE&EE could be in 2030 if it is nurtured by wise planning and leadership: ~37 million jobs, ~$4.3 TRILLION in annual revenue. This could be as much as 17% of all U.S. jobs.

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The report begins by defining its terms.

RE: “A job in the RE industry consists of an employee working in one of the major RE technologies—wind, photovoltaics, solar thermal, hydroelectric power, geothermal, biomass (ethanol, biodiesel, and biomass power), and fuel cells and hydrogen.”

EE: “A job in the EE industry consists of an employee working in a sector that is entirely part of the EE industry, such as an energy service company (ESCO) or the recycling, reuse, and remanufacturing sector. It also includes some employees in industries in which only a portion of the output is classified as within the EE sector, such as household appliances, HVAC systems, construction, automobile manufacturing, and others.”

(Some jobs touch both categories: “…persons involved in RE&EE activities in federal, state, and local government, universities, nonprofits, trade and professional associations, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), foundations, consultancies, investment companies (analysts, for example), and other related organizations.”)

Because most RE&EE job demand comes for work also done in other industries (examples: accountants, factory workers, IT professionals), nurturing RE&EE growth is the ideal antidote to unemployment in the U.S. economy’s fading sectors.

The report identifies 4 key federal and state policies essential for RE&EE to fulfill its potential: (1) a national Renewable Electricity Standard (RES) requiring utilities to obtain a specific portion of their power from New Energy sources by a date certain, (2) a long-term extension of the production tax credit (PTC), (3) effective net metering rewarding New Energy consumers for the power generated and returned to the grid, and (4) facilitated transmission.

In the absence of policy support and aggressive leadership, RE&EE growth will be only half its potential (16 million jobs, $1.97 trillion in revenue). Compromise, unfocused leadership and half-measures will produce diminished but better growth (19.5 million jobs, $2.25 trillion in revenue).

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The report makes clear there are questions more urgent than “How?” First, is the question of “When?” Opportunity the U.S. does not seize wastes time. Every year the implementation of supportive policies is delayed sets the rewards farther off.

There is also the question of “Where?” If the U.S. does not make the RE&EE breakthroughs, they will come in Germany. Or Japan. Or China. Whereever the innovations come, infrastructure, capacity, revenues and jobs will follow. In the coming carbon-constrained world, ownership of RE&EE could mean ownership of global energy dominance.

From Green Collar Jobs in the U.S. and Colorado: "ASES/MISI developed similar RE&EE 2030 forecast scenarios in 2007… the current forecasts for the RE&EE industries in 2030 are significantly smaller than the 2007 forecasts…In 2007, we assumed that the extremely ambitious large-scale federal, state, and local government incentives, policies, and mandates characterizing the advanced scenario would be implemented beginning in 2008. Obviously, this has not occurred…The United States has lost a year of valuable time that we could have spent working toward achieving the RE&EE 2030 goals, and the negative impact on the RE&EE industries in 2030 is significant…The longer the United States delays, the more difficult it will be to achieve the RE&EE goals outlined here for 2030.”

Considering these hard numbers from ASES, it is not hard to understand why the Global Green 2008 Global Solar Report Card gave the U.S. a grade of C+, why the solar and wind industries recent called for a revision of the New Energy federal incentives and an extension of the PTC, and why the incoming administration sees such enormous opportunity in (finally) putting substantial emphasis on New Energy investment.

Footnote: In Colorado, and probably everywhere else if given a level playing field, RE&EE creates 70% more jobs than the oil and natural gas sector.

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ASES Green Collar Jobs report forecasts 37 million jobs from renewable energy and energy efficiency in U.S. by 2030; ASES / MISI study reveals opportunities, warnings in nation’s first update of groundbreaking study; hottest sectors: solar, wind, biofuels, fuel cells
January 15, 2009 (American Solar Energy Society)

WHO
American Solar Energy Society (ASES); Management Information Services, Inc. (MISI);

WHAT
Green Collar Jobs in the U.S. and Colorado documents the development of jobs and revenues in New Energy (Renewable Energy, RE) and Energy Efficiency (EE) over the past 2 years and indicates what the potential is for the coming decades.

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WHEN
- U.S. RE&EE in 2006: 8.5 million jobs, $972 billion in annual revenue.
- U.S. RE&EE in 2007: 9 million+ jobs, $1,045 billion in annual revenue
- Projected 2030 U.S. RE&EE, best case: ~37 million jobs, ~$4.3 trillion in annual revenue
- Projected 2030 U.S. RE&EE, business as usual: 16 million jobs, $1.97 trillion in revenue
- Projected 2030 U.S. RE&EE, moderate support: 19.5 million jobs, $2.25 trillion in revenue
- 2007 Colorado RE&EE: $10.3 billion in sales (4+% of gross state product, GSP), 91,000+ jobs.
- Projected 2030 Colorado RE&EE: $61.5 billion in sales, 613,000 jobs.
ASES was formed in 1954.

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WHERE
- The report assesses RE and EE for the U.S. and for the state of Colorado.
- Germany: 25% U.S. population, more RE jobs and creating RE jobs faster, 5 times as many jobs in wind, 4 times the solar PV jobs. Germany makes 50% of the world’s wind turbine rotors, 33% of the world’s solar panels in the world, is 1st in world biodiesel production.
- ASES is based in Boulder, CO.
- MISI is based in Washington, D.C.

WHY
- Wihtout a commitment to RE&EE, the U.S. will lose millions of jobs and trillions in revenues.
- The RE sectors with biggest revenue growth: solar thermal, solar photovoltaics, biofuels, and fuel cells.
- The most RE&EE job growth: electricians, mechanical engineers, welders, metal workers, construction managers, accountants, analysts, environmental scientists, and chemists.
- RE&EE jobs are largely not subject to outsourcing.
- RE&EE jobs are in high-demand categories, college-educated professionals skilled technical workers.
- RE is growing faster than EE though EE is a bigger industry.
- In Colorado, RE&EE are significant economic drivers and positioned for growth.
- Though Colorado’s gross state product, GSP, is only 1.7% of U.S. GDP, the state’s aggressive public and private leadership has made Colorado ~6% of the U.S. wind market, ~6% of the PV market, and ~5% of the biofuels market.
- Best sectors in Colorado: wind, solar thermal, solar photovoltaics, fuel cells, biofuel, R&D (federal government), recycling, energy efficient windows/doors, green building.
- Colorado RE&EE jobs are (1) in all types of living areas (urban, suburban, small town and rural); (2) in mostly small but all size companies; and (3) at all skill levels, from basic and rudimentary to highly skilled technical and professional.

The U.S. can do better. (click to enlarge)

QUOTES
- Brad Collins, Executive Director, ASES: “There’s a new sense of optimism in the green economy…But while the U.S. could see million of new jobs in renewable energy and energy efficiency, this will only happen with the necessary leadership, research, development, and public policy at the federal and state levels.”
- Green Collar Jobs in the U.S. and Colorado: “In the midst of relentlessly dismal economic news, here’s some good news. Renewable energy and energy efficiency (RE&EE) technologies continue to drive significant economic growth in the United States…To put this in perspective, RE&EE sales outpaced the combined sales of the three largest U.S. corporations. Total sales for Wal-Mart, Exxon-Mobil, and General Motors in 2007 were $905 billion.”
- Green Collar Jobs in the U.S. and Colorado: “…we found that the vast majority of the jobs created by RE&EE are standard jobs for accountants, engineers, computer analysts, clerks, factory workers, truck drivers, mechanics, and other workers. Thus, in our definition, the RE&EE industry encompasses all aspects of renewable energy and energy efficiency, and includes both the direct and indirect jobs created in both these sectors.”