OBAMA KEEPING PROMISES, GROWING NEW ENERGY

Predictions about the future, contrary to the popular witticism, are not always difficult. It is easy, for instance, to say with near certainty that SOMEBODY will win the lottery. That a particular somebody named Hugo will win is unforeseeable, except within the melodramatic confines of TV’s LOST.

If there are some future things that are veritably certain, one is surely that the wind energy industry, the New Energy sector’s capacity leader, will grow by leaps and bounds in the 21st century. What will happen to growth during the Obama administration, however, is now burdened with enough uncertainty to leave predictors lost.

The Obama plan calls for innovation and development in all the New Energies (i.e., solar, wind and hydrokinetics, etc.) as well as in fuel-efficient personal transport, in building efficiencies and in energy transmission infrastructure. The new President reaffirmed his commitment to that plan January 26.

President Obama: "We will commit ourselves to steady, focused, pragmatic pursuit of an America that is freed from our energy dependence, and empowered by a new energy economy that puts millions of our citizens to work…Now is the time to meet the challenge of this crossroads of history, by choosing a future safer for our country, prosperous for our planet, and sustainable."

In the January 26 statement, President Obama ordered his Environmental Protection Agency to set aside Bush-era obstructions and allow the higher vehicle fuel efficiency standards sought by California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger and his coalition of concerned states.

The new President has long called for more fuel-efficient vehicles from Detroit automakers. He faced an audience of car executives in 2007 and told them it should be their goal as well.

From the 2007 speech: “The auto industry’s refusal to act for so long has left it mired in a predicament for which there is no easy way out…For years, while foreign competitors were investing in more fuel-efficient technology for their vehicles, American automakers were spending their time investing in bigger, faster cars. And whenever an attempt was made to raise our fuel efficiency standards, the auto companies would lobby furiously against it…I’m making this proposal here today because I don’t believe in making proposals in California and giving a different speech in Michigan…[He was making the proposals] not to destroy the industry, but to help bring it into the 21st century…” (See HOW OBAMA WILL HANDLE DETROIT)

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The new administration’s rollout of its plans for a New Energy economy has been adroit, leaving its opponents with no better response than empty accusations of a White House staffer’s remote ties to progressive causes. (See Senate Confirms Four Women to Cabinet) In addition to ordering EPA to allow the states’ higher efficiency standard instead of toeing the Bush line of insistence on a single, more lax national standard, President Obama also ordered his Department of Transportation (DOT) to write new, short-term rules for improved fuel efficiency.

In the statement, the President also reiterated his intention to simultaneously boost the economy and attack emissions by (1) funding New Energy to double-capacity in 3 years, (2) adding 3,000 miles of new transmission that will deliver New Energy-generated electrricity to the population centers where it is needed, (3) making 75% of federal buildings energy efficient and (4) weatherizing 2 million U.S. homes.

Confirmation of the long-term potential for growth in the wind energy industry came recently in reports from both the European Wind Energy Association (EWEA) and the Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC). Both predict growth in capacity that must, inevitably, drive the expansion of the supply chain, create steadily improving economies of scale, bring costs down and stimulate demand.

Steve Sawyer, secretary general, GWEC: "It has been another record year for the industry. People say these growth rates can't go on forever, but they keep on going on…"

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At the same conference where Sawyer talked about wind’s growth, Goldman Sachs predicted wind and solar companies face short-term financial challenges due to the credit crunch. U.S. wind and solar industry leaders recently admitted present development is inhibited by the fact that financial institutions like Lehman Brothers and AIG are now no longer available to fund projects. In the last 2 years, wind has lost 8 of its 14 biggest funding sources and solar has lost 15 of its 20 biggest. Goldman Sachs’ ratings of New Energy companies have been revised accordingly, with wind companies are doing better than those in solar because it is a "more mature" and "more scalable" technology.

The Obama stimulus plan, which allots big funding to New Energy, will compensate for some of the fall off in financing. A recent addition to the plan now making its way through Congress provides grants to New Energy producers, freeing them from the need to find financial partners who need tax credits.

Bank of America Securities-Merrill Lynch research note to clients: “Adjusting tax incentives so they are more broadly usable is the most important policy adjustment needed…Funding is sparse and demand is being affected by the depression as well as low fossil-fuel prices.”

Frank Mastiaux, head of climate and renewables with European energy and transmission giant Eon, pointed out the wind industry would need to install a turbine every 25 minutes in order to meet the world’s predicted rise in energy demand. Mastiaux’s striking statistic is less an indictment of the wind industry’s limited capacity than a stark message about coming world energy requirements. If anything, the number demonstrates why it is so urgent to build as much new wind capacity as possible. At the same time, it should be noted that the wind industry never claimed to be the ONLY source of new power generation, just the cheapest clean source of new generation at present.

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Andrew Garrard, wind industry consultant, Garrard Hassan: "…I think in future it will be the cheapest and cleanest form of electricity supply…[Leaders should be calling for investment in wind] instead of protecting old industries." (Which is, of course, exactly what Barack Obama is doing.)

Take note: Eon’s Mastiaux also said his company is building a new turbine about every 10 hours. If just 25 big companies (like GE and Vestas) were to match Eon, it would actually make for a new turbine about every 25 minutes.

Christian Kjaer, CEO, EWEA: "Wind power not only has the potential to satisfy the increasing electricity demand in a sustainable manner, it is also a significant and vital stimulus to economies…"

Europe is the world leader in wind at present but industry analysts see China coming on strong. Leaders in China and Europe see something clearly that U.S. power providers apparently have only had a glimmer of so far.

Kjaer, EWEA: "Russia plays with the taps every New Year…It's not going to get any easier, and we can't carry on handing all this wealth to a handful of fossil fuel exporting nations."

As inevitable as the long-term outlook for wind is, even Kjaer acknowledges short-term doubt, but: "There will be a market for medium-risk, medium-return investments, and that's where the wind sector is…"

Some question the wisdom of the enormous spending it will take to meet the President’s New Energy goals. One estimate puts the cost of doubling capacity at $150 billion (calcualted at $2 million for 1 megawatt of wind and $4-to-8 million for 1 megawatt of solar). Others doubt the New Energy industries’ capacity to scale up fast enough to meet the President’s goals. If the U.S. New Energy industries can’t meet the President’s goals, it will not surprise the nabobs of the Old Energy industries like Michael Morris, the CEO of American Electrical Power Company (AEP), the biggest U.S. coal burner.

Michael Morris, CEO, AEP: “I’m not anti-wind at all and I’m not anti-solar…I’m just not sure we can double it so quickly. The supply chain is incapable of handling it. And I don’t think there is enough capital available today to put into that space.”

What the naysaying nabobs may underestimate is the new political leadership’s commitment to the New Energy economy.

Jerry Taylor, senior fellow, Cato Institute: “With the new balance of power in the House and Senate, I would be surprised if they couldn’t write their own ticket when it comes to renewable energy…”

Proponents of the President’s plans cite the recent years’ unprecedented New Energy growth and other U.S. manufacturing sector accomplishments, like the ramping up of the airplane industry in World War II, the boom of the post-war auto industry and the remarkable digital revolution of the 1990s.

Though some may have forgotten it during the last 8 years, the new President clearly has not: The country was once capable of unbelievably magnificent things and can be again.

President Obama’s statement on auto fuel efficiency. From AssociatedPress via YouTube

Obama aims for oil independence
January 26, 2009 (BBC News)
and
Obama Green Energy May Lag Growth Pace of Bush Years
Jim Efstathiou Jr., January 26, 2009 (Bloomberg News)\
and
'One million jobs in wind power' by 2010
Terry Macalister, January 20, 2009 (UK Guardian)
and
Wind power jobs to double in EU by 2020 –study
Pete Harrison (w/ Sue Thomas), January 20, 2009 (Reuters)

WHO
President Barack Obama; California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger; Todd Stern, Clinton administration diplomat; Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC) (Steve Sawyer, secretary general); European Wind Energy Association (EWEA) (Christian Kjaer, CEO)

WHAT
Long term growth in the wind energy industry is almost certain. The short term is unclear. If the Obama administration’s stimulus plan works, it will certainly sustain growth if not boosting it. Its backing of a path toward better vehicle fuel efficiencies is the first concrete gesture of its commitment.

WHEN
- 2007: 108,600 directly employed in the EU wind energy sector, 59% in turbine and component manufacturing, the rest in installation, maintenance, project development and research. 42,700 more were indirectly employed.
- 2007 Total U.S. New Energy capacity: 28,721 megawatts
- 2008: The world wind energy industry grew 30%.
- 2011: The standards President Obama backs enacts new vehicle fuel efficiency standards within 2 years.
- 2016: The California vehicle fuel efficiency standard cuts emissions 30% by 2016.
- 2020: The 2007 energy bill changed U.S. fuel efficiency standards for the first time since 1982, requiring domestic fleets to average 35 miles per gallon by 2020.
- 2020: EWEA predicts 12% of EU power will come from wind by 2020.
- Stern served in the Clinton administration from 1993 to 2000 and attended the Kyoto summit.

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WHERE
- Europe is the world leader in wind development, with 400,000 people employed in the sector and projections of 3 million employees by mid century.
- Germany, Spain and Denmark, homes of the major manufacturers, account for ¾ of wind-provided employment. (Especially Denmark's Esbjerg and Spain's Navarre regions)
- China’s plans to finance an expansion in wind capacity make it the expected next leader. Its expansion is already driving changes in the industry’s supply chain.

WHY
- 1 million people are expected to work in the wind energy industry globally by 2010.
- One calculation suggests the wind industry would need to add a turbine every 25 minutes to meet world energy needs.
- Goldman Sachs says wind and solar companies face financial challenges due to the credit crunch. Financing shortfalls will reduce or delay demand and affect volumes, pricing and profitability. Ratings are being revised on investments accordingly. Wind companies are faring bettter than solar because it is considered more mature and more scalable.
- EWEA expects the wind industry to provide 330,000 jobs by 2020.
- The Obama American Recovery and Revitalization stimulus plan provides billions in funding and tax breaks for New Energy.
- Acciona SA last year completed a 64-megawatt solar plant in the Nevada desert for $266 million.
- Obama ordered the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to review its refusal of a waiver which had previously allowed California to set its own - stricter - vehicle emission and fuel efficiency standards.
- The EU climate package calls for car industry average fuel emissions of 120g of CO2 per kilometre by 2012 for new cars, compared with current levels of 160g/km.
- The EU target for 2020 is 95g/km. CO2 emissions vary from car to car. Manufacturers have until 2015 to meet specific targets for each model.
- Clinton administration diplomat was appointed “climate change envoy” by President Obama.

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QUOTES
- Jason Channell, analyst, Goldman Sachs: "We believe that the most important theme in 2009 within the alternative energy space will be a move from severe undersupply to one of at least a more balanced market and potentially serious oversupply…"
- Andrew Garrad, Garrad Hassan: "Europe's domination of wind is over…"
- Christian Kjaer, CEO, EWEA: "Wind power not only has the potential to satisfy the increasing electricity demand in a sustainable manner, it is also a significant and vital stimulus to economies…"
- Brian Redmond, managing director, CP Energy Group LLC: “The project-development cycle is three to five years so you can’t just stop and start on a dime…”
- President Obama: "The days of Washington dragging its heels are over…My administration will not deny facts. We will be guided by them."