MOVING FROM CAR 2.0 TO CAR 10.0 (ART CENTER SUMMIT 2009, DAY 2)

Congressman Edward J. Markey (D-Mass), Chairman, House Select Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming opened the program (via video) and introduced the theme. The economy is in peril, the energy system is broken and the climate is in crisis, Markey said. The smart growth solutions to such deep, complex challenges are yet to be designed.

They will be ideas, Markey said, as big as the St. Louis arch and as small as the iPod. They will range in vision from Shai Agassi’s breathtakingly bold Better Place electric transport concept to the 1st-of-its-kind zero carbon Masdar City now being built in the deserts of Abu Dhabi.

In such a context, the landmark 2007 Congressional measure moving the U.S. auto mileage standard to 35 miles per gallon by 2020, Markey said, was little more than "Car 1.0," maybe "Car 2.0" because it would lead to growth of gas hybrids and plug-in hybrids, but far from the "Car 10.0" that the complex challenges of these times require.

Car 2.0(click to enlarge)

A leader in the Obama administration’s push for what he called “well-designed” federal government policy, Congressman Markey expressed excitement about the recently passed stimulus bill’s provision of funding for mass transit systems, which Markey sees as another means to end the century-long dominance of Car 1.0.

Markey was followed by a panel of presenters, infantrymen entrenched in the battles of transition to Car 2.0: Brian Nesbitt, VP North America of GM Design, Bill Reinert, National Manager for Advanced Vehicle Technology for Toyota Motor Sales USA, and John Waters, President & CEO of Bright Automotive.

This recent study showed adopting the PHEV adds jobs.(click to enlarge)

Obviously pitching GM PR bull, Nesbitt described how "different" today's General Motors is, as the company prepares to bring its PHEV Volt to market. “Sustainability can’t be just a power train solution,” Nesbitt said. To a crowd all-too-aware of the fact that the marketplace values cup holders over mileage, Nesbitt made the obligatory remark, reminding the room why GM has failed for decades. “It comes back to an understanding of the values of the customer.”

The customer, Nesbitt said, has a lot of different needs and meeting them takes a lot of thought and a lot of work. Some want a small car with high fuel economy, even if that’s just a little beyond Car 1.0.

This recent study showed adoption of the PHEV smooths the load on the grid. (click to enlarge)

For the 75-to-80% of commuters who travel less than 40 miles a day, Car 2.0 – the plug-in Volt – with its 16-kilowatt, lithium-ion battery that recharges overnight just like the cell phone most such commuters are already in the habit of plugging in regularly – might be the ideal choice.

This, Nesbitt pointed out, represents a transition for car makers from a concern exclusively with mechanical systems to a concern with electrical systems. Moving to elctronics opens up the possibility of robotic car driving systems. That’s Car 10.0.

Bill Reinert is not thinking anymore about Car 10.0 than he has to. He doesn’t care about oil addiction, he’s just trying to survive economically. He doesn’t see the enthusiasm for sustainable mobility playing out in the market place. He also substantiated his cynicism about Car 10.0 with a variety of other facts.

Reinert apparently hasn’t seen the studies showing that plug-in vehicles cut greenhouse gas emissions even when charged off grids heavily reliant on coal. (See Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles - EPRI & Utility Perspective and The Power to Reduce CO2 Emissions)

This recent study showed the PHEV, even on a grid heavily fueled by coal, cuts CO2 emissions. (click to enlarge)

The numbers Reinert has seen on costs suggest there are only marginal savings for improved gas mileage when weighed against the cost of making the car more fuel-efficient. (Other studies report he is wrong.) Cynically, Reinert doubts the commitment of people to faithfully recharge their plug-in vehicles and pointed out that carrying around heavy uncharged batteries worsens mileage.

Reinert recounted the experience of Toyota with its T100 pickup truck. He said it was like trying to sell a tumor. It left him entirely dedicated to selling what customers really want, not what somebody in design or marketing thinks customers want, because a vehicle must sell in the hundreds of millions. Reinert pointed out that car buyers are spending far more on their vehicles than they do on their iPods and are, therefore, much more conservative.

Edgily, Reinert called talk about alternative fuels and green jobs “happy talk..We have coal and we’re probably going to use it.”

PG&E is one of many utilities that welcomes the PHEV. (click to enlarge)

After Reinert, John E. Waters, the President & CEO of Bright Automotive, was a welcome flash of light and inspiration. Known in the auto industry as “the battery breakthrough guy” for his work on the EV1 battery, Waters formed Bright Automotive to solve what he called “the really big problem of dirty air.”

His thinking is that eliminating the problem of dirty air will solve the CO2 and climate change problems. Undaunted by anything said before, Waters described Bright Automotive’s EV project, which he plans to bring to market by 2012, as an affordable plug-in vehicle. He said his company’s car is an example of what can happen when good engineers get focused.

Following the 3 presentations, there was a panel discussion, interesting primarily for how many more ways Reinert found to express skepticism. But in answer to the last question of the session, Toyota’s representative finally tipped his hand.

Given the urgency of global climate change, the panelists were asked, isn’t any reluctance to move to emissions-free personal transport sort of rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic?

There was a hesitation until Reinert, the ultimate skeptic, spoke. “Nobody’s talking about business as usual,” he said. “The fact that we talk about how difficult it is to bring this stuff to market is not the same as that.”

Indeed, Toyota – Reinert’s company – is in the thick of the race to bring a PHEV to market by 2010.

Is this Car 10.0? From HuggLinton via YouTube.

The session concluded with a presentation from Jacqueline Lloyd Smith, of Lloyd Smith Solutions, about an innovative management tool from Lego called Lego Serious Play. “We think of it as a thinking tool,” Lloyd Smith said, “Lego Serious Play is a way to get 100% engagement from your people…getting people to think about the possibilities…In order to think about the future, you have to be able to think about things that don’t exist yet…”

It didn’t have anything to do with sustainable mobility but it was kind of fun. And fun was entirely welcome after the darkness of GM's deceit and Toyota's cynicism.

MgmtCnsltintl via YouTube

The Art Center Summit 2009: Expanding the Vision of Sustainable Mobility
February 18, 2009 (Art Center College of Design)

WHO
Congressman Edward J. Markey (D-Mass), Chairman, House Select Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming; Brian Nesbitt, VP North America, GM Design; Bill Reinert, National Manager for Advanced Vehicle Technology, Toyota Motor Sales USA; John Waters, President & CEO, Bright Automotive; Jacqueline Lloyd Smith, Lloyd Smith Solutions

WHAT
Keynote Day: The Art Center Summit 2009: Expanding the Vision of Sustainable Mobility

WHEN
- Keynote Day: Wednesday, February 18, 2009
- Keynote Event: Wednesday, February 18, 2009, 7-9 p.m. "Urgency: A Vision for Energy Security (R. James Woolsey, former director of the United States Central Intelligence Agency) AND The Future of U.S. Energy and Transporation (Andy Karsner, former assistant secretary, Department of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy)
Concluding round table: Jack Hidary, Freedom Prize Foundation (Host) with Andy Karsner, James Woolsey and Mobility Legend Amory Lovins, Chairman and Chief Scientist, Rocky Mountain Institute.

WHERE
Pasadena Convention Center (East Pavilion), 300 East Green Street, Pasadena, CA 911 (626-396-4308)

WHY
The day was unsummarizably chock full of information on sustainable transport covering the gamut from “it can’t be done” to carts in India to urban planning in China to space travel.

QUOTES
Kurt Andersen, Author and Media Entrepreneur: “Just enough glimmers of hope to make us want to keep tapping those hopefuls…”