SECOND-GENERATION BIOFUELS STILL A DECADE AWAY

IEA report examines second-generation biofuel challenges
Kris Bevill, March 9, 2009 (Biodiesel Magazine)

SUMMARY
The International Energy Agency’s From 1st- to 2nd-Generation Biofuel Technologies describes the current state of the agrofuel/biofuel industry as it attempts to save itself from disaster by moving from first generation food crop sources to second generation non-food, non-evironmentally degrading sources.

The report concludes that there are still technical challenges to the production of second genderation biofuels.

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The report predicts the transition from agrofuels to biofuels will take place over 1-to-2 decades.

A transition to second generation biofuels will require government subsidies.

The biofuels industry is predicted to grow steadily in both first and second generation production over “the near- to medium-term.”

Second generation biofuels could be in production as early as 2012 but there is no actual “conversion technology” by which "cellulosic" materials can be economically transformed into to energy-dense liquid fuels so it is more realistic to expect commercial scale production between 2015 and 2020.

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IEA-estimated commercial-scale production costs for second-generation ethanol are $3.02 to $3.79 per gallon. IEA-estimated commercial-scale production costs for second-generation synthetic diesel begin at $3.79 per gallon. Economies of scale could bring prices down $1 per gallon for both by 2020, making them cost-competitive with petroleum-based fuels.

The IEA's concerns:
(1) Understanding of feedstocks, reduction in feedstock costs and development of energy crops must be improved;
(2) Biochemical and thermochemical conversion technology for cellulosic materials(pre-treatment, enzymes, efficiency and cost) must be improved;
(3) The use of coproducts (heat, electricity, chemicals) must be streamlined;
(4) Market assessments must be improved and take into consideration (a) rural development cost impacts, (b)employment impacts, (c)energy security costs and (d)the cost of soil carbon sequestration losses.

COMMENTARY
- The International Energy Agency (IEA) was formed to provide accurate energy information to the 30-nation Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) in the wake of the international oil crisis of 1973-74 when OPEC first used its “oil weapon” to hold the world’s industrial nations hostage.

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- Agrofuels are as much a focus of protest by energy activists as coal and nuclear energy.
- Agrofuels have been shown to have a very small (if any) positive return of energy for energy invested (EROEI) in production.
- Agrofuels have also been shown to cause little, if any, improvement in greenhouse gas emissions because of all the fossil fuel consumption needed to grown, harvest, transport and refine them.
- Second generation biofuels, agricultural crops but not food crops, are much more environmentally friendly.
- Expansion in the use of food crops for liquid fuels has led to further ruinous deforestation in tropical rainforest regions such as Indonesia, Malaysia and South America’s Amazon Basin.
- Expansion in the use of food-crops for liquid fuels has led to increased prices for staple foods (corn, wheat, rice, etc.), putting an undue burden on rural, indigenous and poor people who rely more heavily on such staples in their diets.
- It is unclear whether second generation biofuels crops will have the same impacts. There is some indication they have already added to further deforestation.
- Second generation biofuels crops, being necessarily hardy and weed-like, may pose a risk to forests as invasive, dominant species.
- Fluctuations in oil and gas prices creates turmoil in biofuels markets, leaving investors tentative. Viability depends on government subsidies but there is currently pressure on governments to not subsidize agrofuels so as to prevent negative impacts.
- The challenge of finding a thermal or biological process for economically converting cellulosic materials to liquid fuel of a significant energy density makes the role of second generation biofuels to 2030 questionable.

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QUOTES
- From 1st-to 2nd-Generation Biofuel Technologies: “It is increasingly understood that 1st generation biofuels (produced primarily from food crops such as grains, sugar beet and oil seeds) are limited in their ability to achieve targets for oil-product substitution, climate change mitigation, and economic growth. Their sustainable production is under review, as is the possibility of creating undue competition for land and water used for food and fibre production. A possible exception that appears to meet many of the acceptable criteria is ethanol produced from sugar cane…The cumulative impacts of these concerns have increased the interest in developing biofuels developed from non-food biomass. Feedstocks from lingo-cellulosic materials include cereal straw, bagasse, forest residues and purpose-grown energy crops such as vegetative grasses and short rotation forests. These "2nd generation biofuels" could avoid many of the concerns facing 1st generation biofuels and potentially offer greater cost reduction potential in the longer term.”
- From 1st-to 2nd-Generation Biofuel Technologies: “When produced responsibly, increased global biofuels trade, transport, use and production can be cost-effective, equitable and sustainable. Many nations have the ability to produce their own biofuels derived both from agricultural and forest biomass and from urban waste, subject to adequate capacity building, technology transfer and access to finance…Trade in biofuels surplus to local requirements can thus open up new markets and stimulate the investment needed to promote the full potential of many impoverished countries…This vision also responds to the growing threat of passing a tipping point in climate system dynamics. The urgency and scale of the problem are such that the capital investment requirements are massive, and more typical of the energy sector than the land use sectors. The time line for action is decades, not centuries, to partially shift from fossil carbon to sustainable live biomass.”

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- From 1st-to 2nd-Generation Biofuel Technologies: “…unless there is a technical breakthrough in either the biochemical or thermo-chemical routes that will significantly lower the production costs and accelerate investment and deployment, it is expected that successful commercialization of second generation biofuels will take another decade or so…After 2020 or thereabouts, second generation biofuels could become a much more significant player in the global biofuels market…”