EUROPE KNOWS WIND

Europe's onshore and offshore wind energy potential; An assessment of environmental and economic constraints
8 June 2009 (European Environmental Agency)

SUMMARY
Europe's onshore and offshore wind energy potential; An assessment of environmental and economic constraints, from the European Environmental Agency (EEA), reports that Europe had 65 gigawatts of installed wind capacity at the end of 2008, meeting 4.2% of EU electricity demand. The EEA, based on European Wind Energy Association (EWEA) projections, anticipates continued rapid growth over the next 2 decades. But many of the most obvious wind sites have been developed. To continue growing and moving toward minimally subsidized grid parity, it will be necessary to know where the most cost-competitive new installations can be built.

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The EEA report is intended to assess onshore and offshore wind resources over the next 2 decades. It is “geographically explicit.” It includes a quantitative analysis of environmental and social constraints on development like noise, visual impact and bird-and-bat endangerment. And it incorporates limitations of offshore wind’s potential imposed by shipping routes, military needs, oil and gas exploration, and tourist zones.

The report combines data on wind speeds and projections of wind turbine capacities to estimate the overall European power generation potential of wind energy in 2020 and 2030. Combining that with the “constrained potential” that results from the consideration of environmental, social and ocean use limitations on growth, it arrives at an assessment of total viable resources over the next 2 decades.

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To estimate Europe’s wind potential despite land use constraints, the EEA study eliminates areas protected by Natura 2000 environmental considerations. It also eliminates sites reserved for the various other social and practical uses.

Using a CO2 price of 22 euros per tonne (EUR/t) in 2020, rising to 24 EUR/t in 2030, and an oil price of $55 per barrel (USD/bbl) in 2005, rising to 63 USD/bbl in 2030, the study reports conclusions on the “economically competitive potential” of European wind in 2020 and 2030.

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COMMENTARY
Key findings in the European Environmental (EEA) technical report:

(1) EU wind resources are “very considerable.” Given projected turbine technology capacities to harvest Europe’s huge “raw wind energy potential,” Europe’s wind could produce 20 times the continent’s projected 2020 energy demand.

(2) Onshore and offshore winds vary in where they will be most plentiful.
(a) The biggest onshore wind potential is in the agricultural and industrial areas of northwestern Europe.
(b) There is big offshore potential in shallower, near-shore waters of the North Sea, the Baltic Seas and the Atlantic Ocean. There is also limited potential in areas of the Mediterranean and Black Seas.
(c) There is even bigger potential in deeper waters farther offshore but it requires technology not likely to be available in the next 2 decades at competitive costs and is, therefore, not likely to contribute to EU power generation in the EEA report’s 2-decade timeframe.

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(3) Onshore wind is expected to be constrained little by environmental factors. Excluding Natura 2000 and other designated sites reduces EU onshore wind’s potential only 13.7%, though social constraints, especially objections to visual impacts, will further limit it.

(4) For near-offshore wind, environmental, social and other constraints limit potential more severely. Adding Natura 2000 and other protected sites to restrictions due to shipping lanes, gas and oil platforms and military areas leaves less than 10% of offshore wind potential within 10 kilometers (km) of shore available.

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(5) There will be limited but ample wind resources.
(a) Liberally allowing for the full range of constraints on wind production in Europe, onshore wind can only be expected to generate 2-to-3% of its fullest potential in 2020 and 6% of its fullest potential in 2030.
(b) Offshore wind could get 0.6-to-0.7% of its potential in 2020 and 0.8% in 2030.
(c) The total economically recoverable wind resource, nevertheless, constitutes about 3 times the anticipated EU energy demand.
(d) To utilize these production achievements, significant changes in the European power transmission and distribution system will be necessary. The costs of improvements in the transmission and distribution system as well as the costs of new technologies to balance supply and demand (interconnections, geographic dispersion of generation capacity and wind forecasting capabilities) are not included in the report’s projected costs for wind energy development.

(6) The enormous potential of wind to supply emissions-free power in the coming 2 decades implies a pressing need to do research and development.
(a) New technological capabilities for interconnection, geographic dispersion of generation capacity and wind forecasting must be perfected to adequately balance supply and demand.
(b) Also crucial are advances in battery electric vehicle (BEV) use and vehicle-to-grid (V2G) technology that will supplement and extend supply-demand balancing capacity.

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(7) Europe’s wind resources are more than adequate. Environmental, social and other factors are not decisively constraining. Turbine technology is presently efficient enough to do the job and will become significantly more efficient. The only question regarding competitiveness is the price of fossil fuels and the price of fossil fuels hinges on the price of greenhouse gas emissions (GhGs).
(a) Fossil fuel and GhG prices will vary according to the world economy but the EEA assumptions leading to the conclusion of wind’s present and increasing competitiveness are, if anything, conservative.
(b) Wind’s competitiveness will have regional variations. In some places it will be more competitive.

QUOTES
- From the EEA technical report: “This report confirms that, alongside other renewable sources such as biomass, wind energy can play a major role in achieving Europe's renewable energy targets. While that message is quite clear, the results of the analysis are subject to uncertainties, particularly at the country level as Europe-wide data on meteorology, land cover, sea depth and wind turbine technology and their costs are applied. The result of this study can be used as benchmark for the evaluation of the potential role of wind energy at European scale. More detailed assessments at
regional, national or local scale are needed for decisions developing wind farms.”

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- From the EEA technical report: “Policy targets at EU level, in particular the renewable energy directive's binding targets for each Member State, will drive wind energy development. Nevertheless, a number of challenges lie ahead. Apart from technical issues that need to be resolved (especially those related to offshore wind energy) there are a number of issues related to legislation, planning and support instruments that could well benefit from a coordinated European approach…[A] consistent policy process that ensures long-term effective support instruments and removes legislative hurdles, together with a high social involvement at both the national and international levels will succeed in larger uses of wind potential where the environment is safeguarded.”