NewEnergyNews: PARITY IMMINENT, SOLAR NEARER PREEMINENCE/

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YESTERDAY

THINGS-TO-THINK-ABOUT WEDNESDAY, August 23:

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    Founding Editor Herman K. Trabish

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    Friday, August 14, 2009

    PARITY IMMINENT, SOLAR NEARER PREEMINENCE

    Imminent Grid Parity To Create Solar Boom In California; Solar is nearly competitive with traditional energy in select locations today, says Lux Research, though widespread grid parity will take a decade
    July 7, 2009 (Lux Research)

    "Solar energy has had an image as an impractical high-cost luxury. However, falling costs and time-of-use electricity pricing have now begun to make solar competitive. Proximity to “grid parity” varies by location, and is closest for commercial rooftop installations in California. Grid parity isn’t a single-point in time, and parity for utility-scale generation remains a decade or more away. However, near-term viability in select applications will drive the thin edge of the wedge that leads to cost reduction and future universal grid parity, says [“The Slow Dawn of Grid Parity”] from Lux Research…

    "…Presented as cost per kilowatt-hour ($/kWh), LCOE [Levelized Cost of Electricity] measures the total lifetime cost of a solar installation. This shift [from measuring solar as cost per watt to LCOE] enables a more direct comparison to conventional generation types, and enables more rigorous analysis of solar technology on the basis of life-cycle costs, payback period, and return on investment…"


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    "The report also provides executives and investors with data on the internal rate of return (IRR) of new solar installations by geography, application, and technology…[derived from] conversations with twenty utilities, project developers, financiers, and tax experts. Among its conclusions:

    "Select applications nearly enable grid parity today. Solar will converge with grid electricity rates in some situations, such as commercial roof decks in California at costs approaching $0.45/kWh. But grid parity comparable with utility generation costs around $0.08/kWh remains a decade away for solar in most markets."


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    "Subsidies are still the primary demand driver for new installations. Even where solar is far from grid parity, ongoing subsidies allow investors, businesses, and homeowners to earn positive IRRs from solar installations. These IRRs will boost demand, fueling further increases in scale and enabling the industry to continue cutting costs and innovating. This should drop future solar LCOEs and further accelerate grid parity.

    "Premature views of grid parity could be counterproductive. Mounting fiscal pressure on debt-ridden governments could turn the political tide against solar subsidies, particularly if politicians take the simplistic stance that grid parity is a current reality…"

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