WHY THE EV WINS

It's Over: Five Reasons Why the Electric Car Wins
September 2, 2009 (TriplePundit via EV World)

"It could take ten years or more to become apparent, but I'll call it now: the electric car will replace the internal combustion engine…I am not an automotive industry expert. Which is why I'm right. I'm not mired in the details, the past failures, the what ifs or the buts. All I see are the big, obvious…five overlapping reasons why our children will all be driving electric cars…

"[1] Momentum…[T]he big car companies are all developing EVs, or hybrid plug-ins…Meanwhile, a zillion companies, plus many national governments, are furiously developing batteries that are powerful, quick to charge, and inexpensive…And then there's the burgeoning smart-grid industry, which will make charging those cars even cheaper…[and] make managing when and where to charge your car much easier."

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"[2] People get it…[Unlike health insurance reform and cap&trade, people] get electric cars. People get where the fuel comes from: the wall socket…People get how electric cars move…And what people already get, people are more willing to a) fund development of, b) support through government, and c) buy.

"[3] Biofuel is foreign oil…And so is natural gas. Not literally, of course; but to an economy dangerously dependent on imported fossil fuels, they might as well be. And that's bad news for these main competitors to electric powered cars…[I]t would take a long time for biofuel to replace foreign oil…[T]he price of [oil will push the price of] biofuel up…[T]he chief selling point of biofuel, that it is a cheap domestic source of gasoline for our cars, is wrong in the short term and moot in the long term…If we use natural gas to power all our cars, however, we will run out a lot quicker. And it's still a dirty fossil fuel with a limited supply and a wildly fluctuating price…Oh, and by the way: fuel cells are dead."

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"[4] It's electricity, stupid…Critics of EVs point out that anyone who lives in an apartment building or parks on the street, or ever wants to drive more than 100 miles at a time, can't have an electric car, because without a recharge it will die…Which would you rather pay for? New infrastructure to develop, extract and/or grow and then pump and/or truck the heavy, expensive "carbon fuel of the future" to gas stations…or longer extension cords?…[There will be] public places for electric cars to charge…The problem of range will be solved either through quick charging batteries, battery-swapping, or an extended reliance on hybrids…In the future, people will look back on our once or twice weekly ritual of driving to a gas station and pouring a noxious, flammable and very expensive liquid into our loud, dirty vehicle and wonder…Is it really so hard to imagine the rubber pumps and hoses, and the smell of gasoline and oil as just so…19th century?

"[5] Resistance is Futile…The EV revolution will not happen overnight. Stakeholders…will [resist]. While problems of range and charging persist, consumers will be hesitant…But my guess is that the shift to electric cars will happen sooner than we think. Change happens very slowly, and then, all of a sudden, very fast. Think of VHS to DVD, or the road from vinyl records to iTunes – four different technologies in less than 30 years…The automotive industry is a whole lot bigger than the record business, but that also means there's more incentive to make the switch to the leading technology…That technology is electric."