700,000 JOBS, 60,000 MW IN THE WATER

NHA Study Echoes Energy Secretary Chu’s Words: Hydro Offers a “Massive Amount of Power” and an “Incredible Opportunity”
October 13, 2009 (National Hydropower Association)

SUMMARY
The wave, tidal, current and other water energy industries have so far worked to make the financial and policy communities aware of their huge potential to generate emissions-free electricity.

Now, as the hydropower industries reach a new level of maturity, it is time to demonstrate how much of a contribution to the economy they can make and nothing says economic contribution like jobs.

Job Creation Opportunities in Hydropower, from premier research authority Navigant Consulting on behalf of the National Hydropower Association (NHA), enumerates the enormous direct and indirect jobs creation potential of the U.S. Hydropower Industry.

Does 700,000 jobs and 60,000 megawatts of emissions-free power sound like a significant contribution? (Hint: The coal industry supplies the economy with 174,000 jobs.)

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COMMENTARY
There is a powerhouse national industry shaking itself to life right before our very eyes.

Like Venus rising from the sea, the several categories of hydrokinetic energy are emerging from potential into actual industries, though sometimes seeming unready to rise and sometimes seeming watched over.

(Botticelli's Venus. (Via Wikipedia - click to enlarge)

The wind energy industry reached about this stage of development over the 1980s and 1990s, just before it began its current unprecedented growth. In those years, wind had exciting rollouts and over-publicized setbacks. It now provides more jobs than coal mining, it is second only to natural gas in the development of new electricity generation and the U.S. Department of Energy says it can provide 20% or more of U.S. power by 2030.

To great fanfare, Pelamis’ strange giant worm was towed out to sea off the coast of Portugal late last summer, the first utility-scale wave energy device to actually go to work. Everybody who knew anything about it from the wags at The Oil Drum to the California surfing community had something to say.

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When it was towed back into shore for repairs in the early autumn, they all had more to say.

Like everybody else in the energy sector, from Middle East oil sheikhs to Chinese silicon suppliers, the daring entrepreneurial dreamers in the wave, tidal and current energy industries have struggled with the financial downturn and yet are preparing to get busy once again with the dispersal of stimulus package funds.

The first thing that has to happen is a shakeout of technologies. Hundreds of ideas are competing to prove themselves. Some of them are being pitched by charlatans. Some of the technologies have been around so long they can almost be considered traditional. Eventually there will be standards, a supply chain and economies of scale.

A few of the competing technologies...(click to enlarge)
...and a few more. (click to enlarge)

Before launching into the report’s findings, a word about terminologies and categories: Hydropower and hydrokinetic are essentially synonomous, indicating the energy or power in water.

Within this broad general heading, there are categories and sub-categories. The most familiar form of hydropower is that generated by flowing rivers at dams. Because this kind of hydropower is compromising to the river and river ecosystem environments, it is not at the industry's cutting edge, but it is a big and important part of the industry's power and economic potential.

The newest, yet oldest, and certainly most intriguing part of this traditional source of emissions-free energy is pumped storage. Water is pumped uphill and stored behind a dam until electricity is needed, when the stored water is released to drive turbines. Some, including U.S. Secretary of Energy Steven Chu, believe this represents a practical, potentially cost-effective way to store excess wind and solar energy for dispatch when power is needed and the sun is not shining or the wind is not blowing. The jury is still out on the cost-effectiveness part of the equation.

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The New Energy hydropowers are wave and tidal ocean energies, currents in the ocean, inland river currents captured without dams, and energies harvested in significant amounts from the temperature and salinity differences in oceans and other very large bodies of water. Of the New Energy hydropowers, wave tidal and current technologies are in, entering or near the pilot project stage while thermal and salinity energies are still largely experimental.

According to Navigant, which developed its conclusions through the most standard of statistical forecasting, the U.S. hydropower industry currently provides ~200,000-to-300,000 jobs in 4 areas:
(1) Project Development (permitting, regulatory studies, licensing, design, scaled model testing, financing, insurance),
(2) Manufacturing (turbine, generator and excitation, governor and control system, mechanical components, electrical components),
(3) Project Deployment (shoreline, environmental instrumentation construction, project construction, commissioning) and
(4) Operations and Maintenance (routine, minor and major equipment overhauls).

At ~100 gigawatts, the U.S. hydropower installed capacity is the second biggest in the world (including pumped storage). It is 7% of the U.S. electricity supply and is the world’s tenth biggest source of electricity production.

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The U.S. has at least 400+ gigawatts of undeveloped hydropower potential, which means the power and job potential for the sector is at least 4 times what it is at present. Sounds like a growth industry, doesn't it?

There have been several recently published studies on U.S. hydropower potential and there are several more underway, but Navigant concluded the resource capacity is well established for streams, waterways, tidal and wave energies in U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) reports. Precise work remains to be done for ocean current, thermal and salinity energy potentials.

DOE studies show a maximum of 600 gigawatts of 2025 technical potential for inland hydropower although at least half of that, some existing and some projected, is expected to be removed because of the environmental harm it does or would do.

EPRI shows a U.S. potential for 90 gigawatts of wave energy. There is little precise evaluation of U.S. current energies but The Gulf Stream off Florida’s Atlantic coast is thought to have 4-to-10 gigawatts of potential. EPRI found 300 gigawatts of tidal energy potential off 5 coastal states and 3,800 megawatts off Alaska.

At almost 39,000 megawatts, the West has by far the most inland hydropower. It also has the most potential, another 42,700+ possible megawatts. The Southeast has the most installed pumped storage, almost 8,200 megawatts.

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Navigant’s report shows how policy measures such as Renewable Electricity Standards (RESs) and financial incentives have effectively spurred development in various states and identifies 4 federal policy areas that would support further hydropower development:
(1) Either a production tax credit (PTC) of 21 cents per kilowatt-hour for 10 years or an investment tax credit (ITC) of 1.1 cents per kilowatt-hour, with the option of exchanging either for a 30%-of-value Treasury grant if financing challenges comparable to current economic circumstances remain.
(2) A Renewable Energy Production Incentive (REPI) of 2.1 cents per kilowatt-hour for 10 years to replace the PTC for public power entities.
(3) Clean Renewable Energy Bonds (CREBs) to replace the PTC for not-for-profit utilities.
(4) Minerals Management Services (MMS) clear guidelines for and streamlining of permitting for development on the Outer Continental Shelf.

Navigant’s study described projections of a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario. BAU was defined as having in place a national RES requiring regulated utilities to obtain 10% of their power from New Energy sources by 2025. It also described an accelerated scenario with a 25%-by-2025 RES.

A BAU scenario foresees traditional hydro supplying 21,750 megawatts by 2025, wave energy providing 900 megawatts, ocean current energy supplying 250 megawatts and tidal energy supplying 400 megawatts for a total 2025 hydropower capacity of 23,300 megawatts.


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In the accelerated (25% RES) scenario, traditional hydro supplies 45,900 megawatts by 2025, wave energy provides 9000 megawatts, ocean current energy supplies 750 megawatts and tidal energy supplies 4000 megawatts for a total 2025 hydropower capacity of 59,650 megawatts, 15% of the total U.S. hydropower potential.

These numbers translate into an important and impressive number of full time equivalent (FTE) direct and indirect jobs.

In per megawatt terms, traditional hydro supplies 6 FTE jobs per megawatt, efficiency improvement supplies 6.5 jobs per megawatt, other hydro projects supply 5-to-6 jobs per megawatt and the ocean energy wave and tidal categories supply 14 FTE jobs per megawatt.

For the BAU projections, Navigant foresees 143,000 direct jobs and 95,000 indirect jobs for a total of ~238,000 jobs from a 10%-by-2025 RES.

For the accelerated projections, Navigant foresees 443,000 direct jobs and 265,000 indirect jobs for a total of ~700,000 jobs from a 25%-by-2025 RES.

As summarized by Navigant, the U.S. hydropower industry could install 23,000-to-60,000 megawatts of new capacity by 2025, depending upon the national RES Congress institutes. This would be 6-to-15% of the total U.S. hydropower potential. Such development would create 140,000-to-440,000 direct jobs and 95,000-to-265,000 indirect jobs in the coming 16 years, a total of 230,000-to-700,000 jobs.

These job estimates do not include induced jobs in the service sectors, like retail and food, which are the inevitable result of the kind of economic stimulation from such expansion.

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QUOTES
- Pennsylvania Governor Edward Rendell: “It’s time to invest in renewable energy resources that generate electricity in this country and that provide jobs for Americans. Hydropower presents elected officials across the country an opportunity to bring thousands of long-term, family-wage jobs to our states.”
- Mark Garner, CEO, Voith Hydro: “…[I]nvestments in hydropower lead directly to good-paying, long-lasting American jobs. We have seen 27 percent growth in permanent employees in the past two years, and as the hydropower industry continues to grow, we have a huge potential to create additional clean, family-wage jobs across the United States.”
- Andrew Munro, President, NHA: “The hydropower industry is prepared to double its current capacity of clean, domestic, renewable waterpower resources…and create thousands of new jobs.”

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- James Lautar, international representative, International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers: “Hydropower is already an important source of good-paying, high-quality jobs for workers across the country. A national investment in hydropower will help grow American jobs for decades to come.”
- Linda Church Ciocci, Executive Director, NHA: “As Secretary Chu points out, both hydropower and pumped storage serve the country…avoid 225 million metric tons of carbon dioxide emissions annually…[and] play a critical role in our national energy, environmental, and economic policy…NHA stands ready to work with all policymakers who pursue development of America’s critical hydropower resources.”