CHINA PV TO OCTODRUPLE IN 18 MONTHS

China Report: Solar Capacity Could Jump to 1GW or More by 2011; A new GTM Research report looks at the dynamics of China’s power industry and how they would affect the deployment of solar policies.
Ucilia Wang, October 1, 2009 (Greentech Media)

"As China primes its energy market for explosive growth, the country could see 1 gigawatt of solar power generation capacity by 2011, said [China PV Market Development] by GTM Research…That would be a big jump from the current 140 megawatts of mostly off-grid solar power generation capacity…If the government is able to speed up approval and distribute funds quickly, then the installed capacity could grow to roughly 1.8 gigawatts. But first, the government will likely go through some learning curve though next year…

"The report offers a detailed look at China's power industry and policies over the last three decades, and how they could shape the country's solar energy development…The authors based their projections on information from the myriad of projects proposed by power producers and China-based solar energy equipment makers, and they took into consideration these projects' development time frame, policies that affect their costs and the likelihood of securing the necessary financing."

Growth so far has been impressive...(from Greentech Media - click to enlarge)

"…The goal isn't just to embrace cleaner energy, however…[China hopes two programs] will help out domestic solar energy equipment manufacturers. These companies have grown quickly in recent years thanks mainly to the generous solar incentives in European countries such as Germany and Spain…The recession – and Spain's decision to cut its subsidies for 2009 – have battered Chinese solar companies, which export more than 95 percent of their products.

"…[Two years ago] the government was setting a new energy policy that called for reaching 300 megawatts of solar generation capacity by 2012 and 1.8 gigawatts by 2020…China is [now] looking at setting a goal of reaching 10 gigawatts by 2020…[One] incentive program announced by the Chinese government earlier this year would subsidize the costs of installing solar energy systems on buildings…The second program, called the Golden Sun, would see the government paying for 50 percent of the costs of building grid-connected solar power projects and up to 70 percent for off-grid projects in remote areas…The government also is expected to announce a feed-in tariff program…to spur solar power plant development."

...Growth going forward will be moreso. (from Greentech Media - click to enlarge)

"In 2006, China began imposing a surcharge to generate money for renewable energy development, and the fund could support 5 gigawatts of solar projects from 2009 to 2013… if the government doesn't use the money for wind, biomass or other renewable energy projects…The fund for 2009 is estimated at $1.06 billion, and it could reach $1.45 billion in 2013…

"Although the government is keen on expanding renewable energy generation aggressively, it also is inclined to keep electricity pricing low to keep boosting the country's economic growth…The National Reform and Development Commission (NDRC) sets wholesale and retail electricity prices and often has to deal with strong resistance from local officials and businesses when it considers rate increases…"