UK SAYS EXPECT LESS OIL

Warning over global oil 'decline'
Sarah Mukherjee, 8 October 2009 (BBC News)

"There is a "significant risk" that global production of conventional oil could "peak" and decline by 2020, [The Global Oil Depletion Report] warned…The UK Energy Research Centre study says there is a consensus that the era of cheap oil is at an end."

"…[It] warns that most governments, including the UK's, exhibit little concern about oil depletion…[though] the 10 largest oil producing fields in the world are all in decline..."

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"…[The] debate about peak oil is a polarised one…[T]here are those who say that global supplies have already reached their zenith, and we are unprepared for the crisis that will hit world economies in the years to come…[But] there are oil companies and many energy analysts who dismiss the notion…The report's authors admit it is hard to tell who is right, as the world lacks [consistent definitions and reliable data] with which to measure oil depletion…[especially in the OPEC countries]…

"Part of the difficulty in estimating the amount of oil left is that those with the reserves are often unwilling to divulge what can be commercially very sensitive information…Countries and companies are notoriously reticent about their oil reserves."

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"But the report suggests the easy oil has already been found, and [though more than two-thirds of current supplies could need replacing by 2030,] new reserves will become increasingly difficult and expensive to extract, and will not make up for the current major oil fields as they decline…

"…[The] report does not contain new research, but is a review of data already available…[and concludes] the risk presented by global oil depletion deserves much more serious attention by the research and policy communities…Despite the evidence, the report notes with some surprise that the UK government rarely mentions the issue in official publications."