MORE NEWS, 12-30: THE YEAR IN CLIMATE SCIENCE; A MARKET LOOK AT SOLAR’S YEAR; PLUGGING IN THE POST OFFICE; NEW ENERGY/GREEN DEGREES

THE YEAR IN CLIMATE SCIENCE
Roundup: Climate science in 2009; For climate science, the year 2009 brought significant discoveries and startling controversies
Kurt Kleiner, 29 December 2009 (UK Guardian)

[click through to source article for complete scientific journal references]

"…The year started out with some sobering, if not altogether surprising, news: overall, the Antarctic continent is warming…[The] studies provided the necessary evidence to show that human-induced warming is happening globally…[A]lthough temperatures rose overall during the twentieth century, distinct periods of warming and cooling of about 30 years each were superimposed on the warming trend…We might have entered such a phase in 2001–2002…[but] the Natural Environment Research Council and the Royal Society in the UK issued a statement that the previous ten years were the hottest on record.

"…In its 2007 report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimated a maximum sea level rise of 59 centimetres by 2100, but noted it was a low estimate…In March a Climate Change Congress in Copenhagen reported that sea levels could rise as much as one metre by 2100…In September…[researchers reported] that both ice sheets are melting much more rapidly than expected…[and] it's possible that sea levels could rise even higher than one metre by 2100…But the case on sea level rise isn't completely closed…"

There is no longer any doubt -- both poles are melting. (click to enlarge)

"Amidst continued discussions on…whether to stabilize atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations at 450 or 350 parts per million, and whether peaking global emissions by 2015 or 2020 will be enough…a group of scientists suggested it would be easier to concentrate on…One trillion tonnes…the limit…on our cumulative carbon dioxide emissions if we are to have a reasonable chance of avoiding warming above 2 °C…[W]e've already released more than half a trillion tonnes since the year 1750…At current emissions rates, we'll reach that number in 40 years…[but] decision-makers [may use this as an excuse to]…put off action…

"With carbon emissions still rising, and political foot-dragging continuing, some scientists began to consider what the world will look like if we miss the target of limiting global temperature increase to 2 °C above pre-industrial levels…Even if emissions peak in 2015 and decrease by three per cent per year, there's an even chance we'll exceed 2 °C…As a precaution, we should begin planning now to adapt to 4 °C…[which could cause] the destruction of US$1 trillion worth of gross domestic product and displacement of 146 million people if sea levels rise a metre…"

The weight of climate change will soon come down on us. (click to enlarge)

"During 2009, geoengineering took a few steps away from science fiction and towards reality. The idea that we ought to consider actively taking control of the climate has previously seemed fanciful, if not downright dangerous. But as emissions have continued to rise, the idea has become less marginalized…In August the UK Royal Society released a report that said geoengineering might soon be our only hope…Man-made aerosols have been thought to counter global warming by reflecting solar radiation…[but research] concluded that they have different effects depending on the types of clouds and regions in which they form…The jury is still out on the overall influence…[A report said] glaciers in the Himalayas are not melting…[and another found] that glaciers are in fact rapidly dwindling…Changes in glaciers seem to vary depending on location and elevation, and there's not enough data to draw a general conclusion…

"…[T]housands of e-mails and documents were stolen from a server at the University of East Anglia Climatic Research Centre in the UK…'Climategate'…caused delight among climate change deniers and major embarrassment for some climate scientists…What the e-mails do not show, however, is a grand conspiracy to concoct global warming. Instead, they show sincere researchers struggling to do good work in a highly politicized environment — and sometimes losing their tempers…[but as NASA climatologist Gavin Schmidt said,] 'Science doesn't work because we're all nice...Newton may have been an ass, but the theory of gravity still works.'"


A MARKET LOOK AT SOLAR’S YEAR
The Real Story Behind Solar Energy in 2010
David Fessler, December 28, 2009 (Money Morning)

"By the time 2009 is in the books, the record will show that solar energy stocks endured a tough year…Analysts also expect the carnage to continue into 2010…

"…Analysts first suggest that a "huge" oversupply of polysilicon (the raw material used to make silicon-based panel assemblies)…[But] panel sales are rapidly eating into this oversupply…They [shortsightedly also] predict companies producing panels based on the new thin-film designs [can’t compete] because the oversupply of polysilicon will keep poly-based panel prices too low…[S]ome solar-energy companies will lose money in 2010. Others won't make it at all…[But the] market for solar photovoltaic panels (those that produce electricity) is increasing rapidly. It certainly isn't about to replicate the 1980s, when 400 solar panel manufacturers got whittled down to just five…"

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[Ron Kenedi, vice president of the Solar Energy Solutions Group, Sharp Corp:] "We're seeing growth in all segments of solar, starting in the last few months…We've seen growth in the residential sector and new ways for projects to be financed. Utility-scale projects are starting and even mainstream solar is starting. All segments of the solar industry are getting stronger."

[Zhengong Shi, chairman and chief executive officer, Suntech Power Holdings Co.:] "Last year, the Spanish market was almost half of the global market. Apart from the Spanish market, all other markets grew at 50% to 100%. That's a positive sign…We're excited about the U.S. market because the new administration is positive and supports rules for renewable and solar and there is increased awareness in the general public. We see our market share continuing to gain in the U.S."

Suntech, one of the powers in the solar industry, is planning on growth. (clikc to enlarge)

[Jerry Wolfe, CEO groSolar:] "The technology is in place and improving every year…We're finding that residential and commercial buildings are less expensive (with solar panels) than (if powered only by) a utility. People don't understand that. Our biggest problem is that solar requires a cultural change and acceptance. That's our biggest hurdle."

"…Resistance to change and the adjustment(s) that change requires is part of human nature…It only takes one word to sum up the one real force that is driving the solar industry, both now and in the future: Innovation. It's something that the United States has always prided itself on and that hasn't changed…One year from now, when many solar analysts are stuffed full of crow, the solar industry will still be introducing new products. And many solar companies will be well on their way to continued profitability in this promising sector of the alternative energy space."


PLUGGING IN THE POST OFFICE
Time for Postal Service fleet to go green, lawmaker says
Ed O’Keefe, December 17, 2009 (Washington Post)

"From horse-drawn wagons to stage coaches, trains and 18-wheelers, the U.S. Postal Service has used virtually every mode of transportation to deliver the mail. But a New York lawmaker says it's time for the mail service to start using at least 20,000 electric vehicles to stamp out the agency's environmental waste.

"The Postal Service said it operates the largest civilian fleet of vehicles in the world, with about 220,000 vehicles traveling more than 1.2 billion miles each year. The agency's entire fleet consumed 121 million gallons of fuel in 2008, costing it [approximately a billion dollars]…[V]ehicles average 10.4 miles a gallon since most drive slowly and make frequent stops between mailboxes."

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"Rep. Jose E. Serrano (D-N.Y.) wants to put the postal fleet to use during off-hours to help alleviate the nation's overworked power grids…[His bill] would give eventually give $2 billion to the Energy Department and Postal Service to convert current mail trucks or manufacture new ones that use vehicle-to-grid [V2G] technology…The technology allows electricity to flow from plug-in electric or battery-powered vehicles to power lines, feeding excess electricity to the vehicles when they're not in use. In this case, postal vehicles would become temporary storage units for electricity. When necessary, power grids could retrieve electricity from the vehicles…[Delaware compensates V2G users] for electricity sent back to the grid at the same rate they pay for electricity they consume.

"An August report by the Postal Service inspector general said Serrano's proposal would be feasible if the government provided funding. The start-up cost for the project would be $65 million…[The idea has also gotten a nod from organized labor]…The Postal Service knows firsthand about the effect of the "green" movement. Revenue and mail volume have dropped significantly in recent years as Americans opt for eco-friendly, paperless online options…"

click to enlarge

"The Postal Service first experimented with electric vehicles in 1899 as it started to phase out the horse and buggy, spokeswoman Sue Brennan said. Serrano's proposal is one of several that would make the postal fleet more eco-friendly, and the Postal Service is testing several electric or hybrid vehicles, Brennan said.

"Thirty electric vans transport the mail to processing facilities near Serrano's district in New York City. More than 43,000 mail vehicles can run on alternative fuels, and 584 ethanol-powered trucks are in use in Minnesota…Some mail carriers in Arizona and Florida use bicycles to make deliveries, while other carriers in those states, California and the District have tested three-wheel electric vehicles. The T3 battery-powered vehicles can reach speeds of 12 miles an hour and carry a maximum 450 pounds of mail. Mail carriers have also tested hybrid vans produced by Ford and General Motors…"


NEW ENERGY/GREEN DEGREES
As colleges add green majors and minors, classes fill up
Julie Schmit, December 28, 2009 (USA Today)

"…Nationwide, more than 100 majors, minors or certificates were created this year in energy and sustainability-focused programs at colleges big and small…That's up from just three programs added in 2005.

"Two factors are driving the surge: Students want the courses, and employers want the trained students…[T]he Global Institute of Sustainability at Arizona State University… started an undergraduate program in sustainability studies — with a focus on solar — a year and a half ago. It now has about 600 students who've declared sustainability a major…Other schools are also seeing big demand..."

The President of the University of Arizona explains the importance to the greater community and the nation of their Sustainability program. From gpecgreaterPhoenix via YouTube

"…Illinois State University in Normal, Ill…[has] 21,000 students [and] 65 majors in renewable energy, a program started in 2008 with help from a $1 million Department of Energy grant. The program has…[more demand than capacity.] Nearby employers, including those in wind energy, hope to hire future graduates…

"…Massachusetts Institute of Technology… launched a minor in energy studies [in September]. A student survey said 43% of freshmen and sophomores were very or extremely interested in it…MIT's student energy club has 1,700 members, vs. several hundred a few years ago…"

Professor Kammen explains why students should get into energy studies. From OLLIBerkeley via YouTube

"…University of California-Berkeley…has seen student interest in its introductory energy class explode. Ten years ago, it attracted 40 or so students. Now, the class runs 270, says Daniel Kammen, director of the school's Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory.

"The Obama administration has estimated that jobs in energy and environmental-related occupations will grow 52% from 2000 through 2016, vs. 14% for other occupations. That's partly why budget-strapped schools are adding energy and sustainability programs even while cutting other majors…"