MORE NEWS, 12-31: WIND TRENDS 2010; AUGHTIES MOMENTS TO REMEMBER; EMISSIONS TRADING 2009; A SOLAR SOLUTION FOR THE NEXT DECADE

WIND TRENDS 2010
Wind Power Trends to Watch for in 2010
Shawna Seldon, December 28, 2009 (American Wind Energy Industry)

"As the nation looks ahead to 2010, renewable energy will be central to the economic and energy issues that dominate the political agenda. The American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) has identified some trends and indicators…

"…[1] Wind Power: Second-largest Source of New U.S. Power Generating Capacity for Sixth Year…While wind makes up only about 2% of total electricity supply, it is [expected in 2010 to continue to be] one of the largest sources of new power generation…second only to natural gas…[2] The most important job creation policy that Congress can enact is a national [Renewable Electricity Standard (RES)] which provides the long-term certainty that companies need to invest in new facilities and train workers to make the 8,000 components that go into a modern wind turbine….Whether it is in job legislation or in comprehensive energy and climate legislation…a strong RES is urgently needed…"

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"…[3] With shop floors working single shifts or sometimes idling altogether for lack of contracts, U.S. wind turbine component manufacturing lagged in 2009. If an RES is passed early on in the year, however, it will work in synergy with the short-term [Recovery Act (ARRA)] incentives and provide the long-term signal that companies are waiting for in order to invest in new and expanded facilities…[4] With climate and energy legislation or regulation looming, the stakes are higher than ever for the energy sector. Tighter limits on emissions reveal true cost, so efforts to pad climate and energy legislation with subsidies to ensure the survival of the more polluting technologies will continue. Lobbying efforts and spending could surpass [2009] record levels…[A]nti-renewable energy communications campaigns [may] try again to use bogus studies funded by fossil fuel-backed groups…[and] other tactics.

"…[5] Wind Turbines Get Even More Powerful…Over 1,000 wind turbines larger than 2 megawatts (MW) are already in commercial operation…and the year-end [2.5-MW turbine orders are] the harbinger of a shift [toward even larger turbines]…This forecast assumes [exhausted inventories]…a growing market…[and] a national RES. The trend toward larger turbines is driven by economics: taller turbines…produce more power at a lower cost per kilowatt-hour…[6] While federal transmission policy is under heated discussion as part of pending energy legislation, states and regions are where key decisions are made…Texas and the Southwest Power Pool are beginning to see investment in new transmission lines and infrastructure [because of good policy]…[T]he Midwest Independent System Operator…[may adopt] similarly favorable cost allocation policy."

Good question. (click to enlarge)

"…[7] As wind penetrations grow higher in the U.S. and Europe in 2010, utilities and grid operators should become more comfortable with [it]…Several major wind integration studies slated for release in 2010 are expected to add further evidence that wind can be reliably integrated with the grid at low cost…[T]he wind industry will be keeping its eye on…fossil fuel competitors [who may try to] impose new and unfair costs on wind plants…[8] Another year of record growth is expected for the small wind market in 2010 due to a federal Investment Tax Credit that has been expanded to provide an 8-year, uncapped 30% tax credit for small wind systems for homeowners and small businesses…[A new] safety and performance standard will…help consumers compare turbines.

"…[9] [T]he completion of the Wind Turbine Guidelines Advisory Committee process (discussions on wind turbine siting held under the Federal Advisory Committee Act with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and a broad range of stakeholders) [will] provide the industry with greater clarity on wildlife surveys…the siting process for wind farms…[and the] industry continues cooperative research programs with the Bats & Wind Energy Cooperative, the American Wind Wildlife Institute, and other organizations…[10] Operational and Safety Guidelines…[are being] put in place…and AWEA is doing so on a number of fronts, including workplace safety…[in conjunction] with the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA)…to promote safety and health within the wind industry. AWEA will also develop best practices and safety awareness training programs…"


AUGHTIES MOMENTS TO REMEMBER
Top 10 environmental moments of the decade
Constance Cheng, December 28, 2009 (CNN)

"What a difference a decade makes. Since [2000, there has been]…a marked shift toward all things green in politics, technology and perhaps most importantly, society…[There is a wide] understanding of climate change…[and has] started to change the way more us live our lives…10 environmental developments…defined this…green decade…

"…[1] In 2001, the Toyota Prius became the first mass-produced hybrid vehicle to be sold worldwide. It heralded the beginning of an era…Industry insiders called it a game-changer…[M]ore than one million Priuses have been sold worldwide, and other major manufacturers [are developing] their own hybrid and electric-only vehicles…[2]
December's U.N. summit on climate change held in Copenhagen, Denmark garnered unprecedented attention…[T]he accord that was reached fell short of the expectation of nearly every interested party…"

The 2001 Toyota Prius changed the game forever. (click to enlarge)

"…[3] Al Gore's 2006 "An Inconvenient Truth" has its place in history. The film was instrumental in spreading the message of climate change…[and] was one of the highest grossing documentaries of all time…[I]t has been maligned by some critics for "fear-mongering." …Yet despite its doomsday scenarios, it explained the basics of climate change to an audience that till then had no access…[and] brought Al Gore…the Nobel Peace Prize…[4] Compact Fluorescent Lightbulbs (CFLs) brought environmentalism into the home…[Producers overcame initial objections and early technical problems] and in 2007, sales of CFLs reached record heights worldwide. Australia has already implemented a ban of traditional incandescent light bulbs while the European Union and Canada are also phasing out the old bulbs…[T]he average CFL uses 75 percent less energy…a $30 saving which would pay for itself in 6 months. It was an important coup for the environmental movement, but green groups now say much more needs to be done…

"…[5] Hurricane Katrina in 2005, a string of deadly hurricanes devastating Haiti in 2008 and the heat wave in Europe in 2003, just some examples that this decade was plagued by wild weather…[C]limate change may…[make] ordinary [or extreme] weather events…more extreme…Recently, the U.N.'s weather agency said that this decade was the hottest on record…[6] Growing awareness for the environment meant that noughties vocabulary included words like "carbon footprint," "carbon neutral" and "greenwashing." Perhaps the most significant step was when they were accepted into the Oxford English Dictionary in 2007…"

About the time "September 11" is taking its place in history alongside Pearl Harbor and Custer's Last Stand, global climate change may be reaching anthropological proportion. (click to enlarge)

"…[7] In 2007…in Paris…The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) issued the first scientific consensus on climate change, which included an unprecedented acknowledgement that it was "very likely" that climate change was caused by human activity. The report went on to project a temperature rise of 1.8 to 4 degrees Celsius and a sea-level rise of between 28 to 43 cm by the end of the century…[8] [A] healthy mix of existing technologies especially in the renewable energy sector will [likely] be enough to significantly cut emissions. Wind, solar, hydro all saw significant support in the past ten years…In 2008, global power capacity from renewables topped 280,000 MW…That is three times more than what nuclear power plants in the United States currently produce…India and China are now among the leaders in the installation and manufacture of renewable energy. In 2008, China's wind power capacity doubled for the fourth year running…[S]olar technology had a few key breakthroughs including improved energy yields (it now tops 20 percent) and the creation of ultra-thin solar panels…

"…[9] In 2006, [British economist Sir Nicholas Stern and] former vice president of the World Bank issued a 700-page report calculating the cost of climate change to the world's economy. Green groups called the report a wake-up call for governments…The report estimated that climate change would cost at least 5 percent of global GDP annually, now and forever. The worst case scenario would be 20 percent a year ($7 trillion)…The UN Framework Convention for Climate Change suggests that climate change could cost between $70 to $100 billion by 2030..[10] Carbon trading, also known as "cap and trade," became a hotly debated policy that many hope will help counter climate change. Using free-market principals and government regulation, participants in cap and trade schemes buy and sell permits to emit carbon dioxide. Governments limit the amount of emissions allowed and slap heavy fines on those who exceed those limits. Reducing the amount of permits issued over time should then reduce pollution levels…There are also questions over regulation and accounting…It's a complex and controversial issue but one that looks set to a key feature of mainstream climate change solutions…"


EMISSIONS TRADING 2009
Carbon Prices Reflect an Uncertain Year
Matthew Berger, December 29, 2009 (Inter Press Service via Reuters/AlertNet)

"As what was supposed to be a breakthrough year for action on climate change comes to a close, one indicator of the disappointment surrounding an anti-climactic outcome in Copenhagen and stalled U.S. Senate legislation can be seen on the European Climate Exchange. The main exchange for the carbon emissions allowances that are traded as part of the European Union's Emissions Trading System saw carbon dioxide emissions drop to a six-month low of 12.4 euros in Copenhagen's aftermath and remain around that level since.

"Prices have been volatile throughout the ETS's first five years, but this year they dropped to an all-time low of eight euros in February, following a record high of just under 30 euros the previous July…For cap and trade approaches to greenhouse gas regulation to achieve their ends and provide the incentives that will push companies to invest in cleaner technologies, prices will need to be much higher…The International Energy Agency's World Energy Outlook for 2009 said carbon prices should be at 50 dollars (35 euros) a metric tonne in 2020 and 110 dollars (67 euros) in 2030 in order to stimulate investment…"

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"A major reason for the downturn in prices this year versus last is the economic recession, which has meant lower production, and thus lower emissions and less need for emissions allowances…But there are other factors at play as well. The price of carbon, as with that of any commodity, is seen as a function of demand…[Current low demand was also brought on] by the lowered expectations for carbon dioxide regulation following the disappointing summit in Denmark and the stalling of climate legislation in the U.S. Senate…

"…[T]here is growing pressure to allow more [normally lower-priced] offsets into the carbon trading system…[This could show] businesses expect carbon emissions prices to rise…Offsets include the Certified Emissions Reduction credits of the Kyoto Protocol's Clean Development Mechanism, which allow emitters in rich countries to invest in clean tech ventures in developing countries in exchange for credits to put toward their emissions cuts tallies, as well as programmes where emitters can pay for forests to be conserved or replanted…"

click thru for interactive chart

"The U.S. House of Representatives passed a climate change bill…setting up a cap-and-trade system in the U.S. Like the ETS, the proposed U.S. system would limit industries' emissions and eventually force companies to pay for allowances to offset their emissions - or allow them to sell excess allowances if their emissions are lower than expected…The EU system and any future U.S. system are supposed to encourage a movement away from dependence on high-emitting, fossil-fuel[s]…But for businesses to be sufficiently motivated to reduce their emissions they need a price incentive.

"The non-binding international accord announced by the U.S., China, India, Brazil and South Africa and "taken note of" by the other countries is not likely to raise demand enough…[P]rices in the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, which caps emissions in 10 northeastern U.S. states, dropped to around two dollars…[S]upply is easily overpowering demand…The EU ETS also faced the early problem of having allocated too many allowances at its start…But low prices…may simply be the unavoidable growing pains…[that] allowed emitters and markets time…[to learn to] operate under a cap…As for the future of cap and trade, currently low prices are not expected to, by themselves, slow the momentum toward a cap-and-trade system in the U.S. or elsewhere…"


A SOLAR SOLUTION FOR THE NEXT DECADE
Solar Energy Could Meet 15 Percent of US Electricity by 2020
December 16, 2009 (Solar Energy Industries Association)

"Leaders representing the U.S. solar energy industry reported the potential of solar energy to meet 15 percent of U.S. energy needs by 2020…The “Expanding Solar Energy in the United States” briefing was hosted by the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) and featured U.S. solar industry leaders outlining the Solar Bill of Rights legislation needed to rapidly deploy solar energy to fight climate change and create jobs…

"In a report released jointly with solar industry groups representing more than 90 countries around the world, SEIA presented an accelerated solar deployment scenario for the United States to meet 15 percent of electricity needs by 2020. Twelve percent would come from solar electric power generated by photovoltaic solar panels and concentrating solar power plants. Another 3 percent of electricity would be offset by solar thermal (solar water heating) systems."

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"The report also noted the key policies needed for the industry to scale up and compete effectively…conveyed in the Solar Bill of Rights…[which] lays out eight basic rights that give the solar industry equal access to the electricity marketplace and levels the playing field with the fossil fuel industries…

"…[1] The right to put solar on our homes and businesses…[2] The right to connect our solar energy systems to the grid…[3] The right to net meter and receive at least full retail rates…[4] The right to a fair competitive environment…"

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"…[5] The right to equal access to public lands…[6] The right to build and interconnect new transmission lines…[7] The right to buy solar electricity from utilities…[8] Consumers have the right to the highest ethical treatment from the solar industry…

"The industry estimates that by 2020 more than 880,000 new solar jobs would be created in the US while reducing total energy emissions by 10 percent (nearly 600 million metric tonnes of CO2-equivalent emissions would be avoided annually)…"