WHY NEW ENERGY NEEDS ENERGY EFFICIENCY

Searching for a Miracle; ‘Net Energy’ Limits & the Fate of Industrial Society
November 12, 2009 (Post Carbon Institute)

"Searching for a Miracle; ‘Net Energy’ Limits & the Fate of Industrial Society, by Richard Heinberg, [asks]…Can any combination of known energy sources successfully supply society’s energy needs at least up to the year 2100? [and concludes]…that all known energy sources are subject to strict limits of one kind or another. Conventional energy sources such as oil, gas, coal, and nuclear are either at or nearing the limits of their ability to grow in annual supply, and will dwindle…And contrary to the hopes of many, there is no clear practical scenario by which…alternative sources [will] sustain industrial society at its present scale of operations…

"…[Heinberg expands on] the “net energy” factor—the requirement that energy systems yield more energy than is invested in their construction and operation…[and insists that] proposed energy transition scenarios…are overly optimistic, as they do not address all of the relevant limiting factors to the expansion of alternative energy sources…[He] shows why energy conservation (using less energy, and also less resource materials) combined with humane, gradual population decline must become primary strategies for achieving sustainability…"

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"The world’s current energy regime is unsustainable…[That is agreed on by] a wide and growing public consensus…concerned about the climate and the other environmental impacts of society’s reliance on fossil fuels…[and] troubled by questions regarding the security of future supplies of these fuels…

"Nonetheless, it remains a commonly held assumption [according to Heinberg] that alternative energy sources… are readily available…and ready to come on-line in a bigger way. All that is necessary, according to this view, is to invest sufficiently…While it is possible to point to innumerable successful alternative energy production installations…it is not possible to point to more than a very few examples of an entire modern industrial nation obtaining the bulk of its energy from sources other than oil, coal, and natural gas…Thus it is vitally important that energy alternatives be evaluated thoroughly… for a systemic societal transition away from oil, coal, and natural gas…"

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"It is a central purpose of [Heinberg’s work] to systematically review key limiting factors…[with emphasis] on one key criterion: net energy, or energy returned on energy invested (EROEI).This measure focuses on the key question: All things considered, how much more energy does a system produce than is required to develop and operate that system? What is the ratio of energy in versus energy out? Some energy “sources” can be shown to produce little or no net energy. Others are only minimally positive.

"…[Heinberg’s] fundamental disturbing conclusion…is that there is little likelihood that either conventional fossil fuels or alternative energy sources can reliably be counted on to provide the amount and quality of energy that will be needed to sustain economic growth—or even current levels of economic activity—during the remainder of the current century…[and therefore] a sensible transition energy plan will have to emphasize energy conservation above all…"