WILL THERE EVER BE HOPENHAGEN?

Copenhagen climate meeting a split-screen event; Not only are there protesters in the streets and delegates inside, but the real negotiations are going on apart from the conferees' public pronouncements. There are five things to keep in mind.
Jim Tankersley, December 13, 2009 (LA Times)

"Outside, tens of thousands of eco-protesters paraded through the streets of Copenhagen waving bright yellow signs with slogans such as "There is No Planet B."

"Inside, environmentalists and other observers watched the protest marches on television as negotiators shuttled between closed-door meetings in hopes of making progress on a new climate agreement…[a] split-screen reality that has come to define the gathering as it heads toward its second week -- loud in public, mysteriously quiet in private."

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"…[H]ere are five things to know about the climate talks so far…[1] The early days of the negotiations have been dominated by a carnival atmosphere…parliamentary maneuvers…leaked draft agreements…news-conference accusations…[and] behind the scenes, a few key negotiators have quietly and steadily hammered away at the obstacles to a deal…if there is one…"

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"…[2] Even if countries agree to a new climate deal -- and that's still a big if -- it will not include deep enough cuts in greenhouse gas emissions, or large enough financial assistance for developing nations to tackle climate issues, to satisfy a large chunk of the assembled masses here…who warned that an overly modest agreement would not avert climate catastrophe…[Those] tracking the talks closely say…it appears that nations are mostly locked in on a series of emissions cuts they proposed before the conference, including reductions from 1990 levels of 20% by Europe and around 4% by the United States…"

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"…[3] The first week featured a sharp and concerted effort by climate researchers to defend global warming science, including the release of a huge swath of raw temperature data that the researchers said show definitively that the world has been heating since the dawn of the industrial age, and that this decade is the warmest on record…It was a direct response to a scandal involving the apparent computer hacking and the release of 1,073 e-mails between leading climate scientists, including discussions of shielding information from public view and of trying to shut critics out of scientific journals. Skeptics say the e-mails undermine the case for global warming…

"…[4] To reach agreement, fast-developing nations such as China and wealthy powers such as the United States must… say, in the text, that developing countries are serious about their emissions pledges and willing to be transparent about whether they're meeting them…[N]egotiators need to find the [way to write it] that each side can sell at home…[5] The bedlam of Week One won't compare with the Chaos of Week Two…More activists…more reporters…members of Congress…[and the] first heads of state and government are to arrive Wednesday. President Obama is due Friday…[But] will they leave smiling or empty-handed?"