QUICK NEWS, 2-1: WORLD PLEDGES TO CUT SPEW; 2010 SOLAR MARKET FORECAST; TO MEET RES, KANSAS BUYS WIND; FORGET YUCCA MOUNTAIN

WORLD PLEDGES TO CUT SPEW
States renew vows to reduce greenhouse gas emissions
31 January 2010 (BBC News)

"Governments around the world have reaffirmed their plans to cut greenhouse gas emissions in support of last month's Copenhagen climate summit.

"Nations signing up to the summit accord were urged to outline pledges by Sunday. States producing at least two-thirds of emissions have done so…[Though] the accord is widely seen as a disappointment…the level of support for it is seen as an indicator of prospects for a legally binding deal later in the year."

It is being reported today that all the major economies are on board. Details remain unclear. From BBC News. (click thru to the U.S. Climate Action Network for details on all commitments)

"Many developing countries who face the worst impacts from climate change seem willing to sign up to the agreement, as it includes firm commitments on funding in both the short and the medium terms…[O]thers are unhappy with the idea that the accord could become a new basis of negotiations towards a legally binding treaty, and it is feared that some may refuse to associate with it…

"Leading emitters such as the US, India, China and the EU have already written in…Some smaller emitters have also sent pledges or asked to be associated with…[the Copenhagen] accord [which includes] a recognition to limit temperature rises to less than 2C (3.6F)…[and a promise to] deliver $30bn (£18.5bn) of aid for developing nations over the next three years, to cope with the impact of climate change, and further funds to help them reduce emissions."

It is being reported today that all the major economies are on board. Details remain unclear. From BBC News. (click thru to the U.S. Climate Action Network for details on all commitments)

"But analysts say the accord looks unlikely to contain temperature rises to within 2C, the threshold that UN scientists say is needed to avert serious climate change…Environmentalists and aid agencies have branded it a failure…UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon described [it as a beginning]…

"…[I]f most countries at least signal what they intend to do to cut their emissions, it will mark the first time that the UN has a comprehensive written collection of promised actions… The next round of negotiations is due to be held in December in Cancun, Mexico…It is unclear whether a legally binding deal can be reached…amid uncertainties such as about whether the US Congress can pass a bill which includes emissions reductions."


2010 SOLAR MARKET FORECAST
iSuppli forecasts impact of Germany’s FiT cuts in 2010
Mark Osborne, 21 January 2010 (PV-Tech)

"With the extra feed-in tariff cuts due to kick in in April this year, iSuppli's senior director and principal solar analyst, Dr. Henning Wicht, expects a significant rush to install PV systems before FiT changes cause a dramatic fall in demand. Wicht is projecting installations to reach approximately 1GW in the first quarter, plummeting to only 50MW in April and remaining at the 100MW level in May and June. However, a recovery in demand is expected with a forecast of 2.7GW of total installations in 2010."

[Dr. Henning Wicht, senior director and principal solar analyst, iSuppli:] “Germany’s decision to cut its solar subsidies in the second quarter will make installations less attractive for the country’s consumers…Because of this, German consumers will rush to make solar installations in the first quarter and then stop in the second quarter. As a result, iSuppli anticipates the German market will overheat during the first three months of the year and then collapse during the next three months…As a result of the decline in installations, solar system prices in Germany could decline by 7.5% from April through the end of 2010, compared to less than the 5% normal rate of decline.”

click to enlarge

"…[T]he reason for a recovery later in the year was due to an expected decline in module prices greater than previously forecasted…[but] the crash that Wicht has modelled is actually very short, especially considering the strong recovery in the fourth quarter, which is little different from installation levels experienced in the same quarter of 2009…Wicht isn’t that concerned about the ramifications of the German FiT cuts on the global market and refrains from drawing parallels with the Spanish cuts and capping that took place in September 2008 and the module overcapacity and plunging prices that followed…"

[Dr. Henning Wicht, senior director and principal solar analyst, iSuppli:] “The massive oversupply and downturn seen in the global solar cell industry in 2009 was largely due to Spain’s decision to change its FIT policies, which led to a collapse in demand…Germany’s move could have similar impact on the global solar market during the second quarter of 2010. However there is a major difference: the German FIT does not limit the size of solar installations, whereas the Spanish FIT restricts installations to 400MW to 500MW per year. Assuming that solar system prices will drop more, installations in Germany will have an opportunity to recover, unlike in Spain.”


TO MEET RES, KANSAS BUYS WIND
Westar Energy Acquires Rights to 500MW Kansas Wind Farm
January 25, 2010 (Sustainable Business)

"Westar Energy, Inc…has acquired development rights for a new wind farm in Kansas. Westar has reached an agreement with Infinity Wind Power to develop the Ironwood site near Spearville for up to 500 megawatts (MW) of capacity. The initial phase is expected to be approximately 200 MW and will be completed by late 2011 or 2012, depending on the pace of new transmission construction in western Kansas…

"…[Westar] reviewed 35 proposals [for New Energy projects]. After much research, and given changing legislative and economic conditions, Westar opted to obtain rights from Infinity Wind to develop the Ironwood site to position itself to add additional renewable generation quickly once market conditions and transmission availability become more favorable for its customers…"

Kansas has rich wind assets but...(click to enlarge)

"The development agreement with Infinity is structured as an asset purchase and includes contracts with landowners currently covering 18,603 acres as well as other development-related assets. As part of the agreement, Infinity will provide future development services to further prepare the site for construction of the wind farm.

"A new Kansas [Renewable Electricity Standard (RES)] requires electric utilities to have renewable capacity equal to 10% of the utilities peak summer demand, and 20% by 2020. For Westar this means growing its nearly 300 MW renewable generation portfolio by 160 MW to 200 MW by the end of 2011 and more than 600 MW of new renewable sources by 2020."

...development has lagged behind other states but the new RES is already driving growth and could give Kansas standing in the ocming year. (click to enlarge)

"Westar currently…owns Central Plains Wind farm, a 99 MW facility…has a 100 MW share of the Flat Ridge Wind Farm…[and] purchases 96 MW of wind power from the Meridian Way Wind Farm…Those wind farms went online in 2008 and 2009.

"Westar Energy, Inc…is the largest electric utility in Kansas…has about 7,100 megawatts of electric generation capacity and operates and coordinates more than 35,000 miles of electric distribution and transmission lines."


FORGET YUCCA MOUNTAIN
Obama administration: ‘We’re done with Yucca’
Lisa Mascaro, January 29, 2010 (Las Vegas Sun)

"…The White House’s top energy adviser, Carol Browner, said Yucca Mountain is off the table as the new commission headed by Lee Hamilton and Brent Scowcroft begins a two-year process to study alternatives for handling the nation’s spent nuclear fuel…"

[Former national security adviser (to two presidents) Scowcroft:] “[The commission will be] trying to look forward, not back.”

click to enlarge

[Former congressman and 9/11 Commission co-chair Hamilton:] “Nuclear waste storage at Yucca Mountain is not an option and the commission will be looking at better alternatives…”

"The formation of a panel to study alternatives was proposed last year as Obama announced his intention to dismantle the Yucca Mountain project he had vowed to kill...[The 2011 budget] is expected to zero out funds for Yucca Mountain, even as Obama called for “building a new generation of safe, clean nuclear power plants” in his State of the Union speech…"

Besides having no solution for the storage of radioactive waste, nuclear energy is not the best economic choice and is not the best choice to beat climate change. (click to enlarge)

"Nevada officials welcomed the development as a key step in the state’s decades-long battle to stop the proposed waste dump…[but] warned that until Obama pulls the Energy Department’s application to license Yucca Mountain or Congress rewrites the law allowing it, the project could merely be on hold…A change in the political winds could allow a new president or supportive lawmakers to restart efforts…

"Nevada’s Washington lawmakers are confident the commission will take Nevada closer to being done with Yucca Mountain…The panel includes prominent voices in the nuclear debate in Washington…[It] is expected to study alternatives for 18 months and issue a report with 24 months, though the chairmen hope to finish sooner."