SEEING EL NINO IN THE WIND

3TIER Releases Wind Performance Maps; Maps illustrate impact of El Niño in 2009
February 4, 2010 (3Tier)

"3TIER® released maps… that plot how average wind speeds in the US differed from their long-term averages in 2009 and illustrate the impact of El Niño, which contributed to a decrease in wind power production in several important wind power regions. El Niño and similar climactic fluctuations are normal, predictable phenomena that can – and should – be accounted for when assessing potential wind power sites or designing a geographically diversified portfolio of sites…

"3TIER generated the maps using both observational data and numerical weather prediction (NWP) modeling, which illustrate the effect of the El Niño Southern Oscillation on wind speeds. The maps demonstrate that such naturally occurring phenomena have a significant impact on wind power production, and that these impacts are largely predictable and quantifiable using advanced modeling techniques…"

Winds were weak early in the year due to El Nino. (from 3Tier/click to enlarge)

[Kenneth Westrick, founder/CEO, 3TIER:] "It is fair to say that only a few areas known for their concentrated wind resources outperformed their average yearly wind speeds…The good news is that we have the scientific expertise and technology to account for these long-term fluctuations, incorporate them into a project's financials and forecast their occurrence with a considerable degree of certainty…El Niño effects are also associated with changes that impact other renewables, such as solar and hydro. Fortunately impacts on these technologies can also be predicted and quantified."

"The maps illustrate departures from the long-term mean that range from -10% to 10% and show a pattern that is indicative of the climate state during the year. In particular, wind speeds on the West Coast are well correlated to the state of El Niño, which started the year with a weak negative index that shifted to a positive one – meaning the onset of El Niño - by fall. A second map for the fourth quarter illustrates the intensifying effects of El Niño…"

Winds were closer to normal as El Nino eased. (from 3Tier/click to enlarge)

"The map was created by comparing output from 3TIER's continually updated meteorological dataset with wind conditions averaged over the period 1969-2008 from the same dataset. Wind speed values were computed using a NWP model running with a grid spacing of 15 km, and adjusted using available observations…It is not only wind, as El Niño also impacts other weather-driven renewables."

[Dr. Jim McCaa, director of advanced applications, 3TIER:] "These modeling techniques can be used proactively to develop more geographically diversified wind portfolios to counter normal climactic fluctuations…The El Niño signal was not particularly strong last year, and its effect on wind energy production will likely weaken as we move from winter to spring. But, depending upon where they are located, even a modest El Niño can have a profound impact…"