BENEFIT, NOT BUST, FROM AB 32 CLIMATE FIGHT LAW

Climate law won't hurt California economy, report says; Many sectors will prosper under the greenhouse gas limits, an analysis by the state air board finds. A business group disputes the findings.
Margot Roosevelt, March 24, 2010 (LA Times)

"California's overall economy will not suffer, and many parts of it will prosper under the state's landmark global warming law, according to an analysis by the California Air Resources Board that rebuts an industry-led ballot effort to suspend the regulations.

"The 103-page [Updated Economic Analysis of California’s Climate Change Scoping Plan] comes after earlier projections were criticized as flimsy. It was vetted by a panel of independent academics and policy experts…[E]arlier critics of the board projections reiterated their skepticism and touted their own commissioned studies that predict more dire effects…[such as] that implementing the climate law could cost the state 485,000 jobs by 2020, a sharp contrast to the air board's finding that the law would yield a net increase of 10,000 jobs…"

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"In recent weeks, the protracted battle over the 2006 Global Warming Solutions Act, known as AB 32, has flared anew as oil refiners and other industries have poured more than $950,000 into signature-gathering for a November ballot initiative to delay climate-related rules.

"Under the law, the state's emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, which trap heat in the atmosphere, would drop 15% by 2020…New regulations would boost solar, wind and other renewable power, cut the carbon intensity of gasoline, promote electric cars, discourage sprawl and wedge energy-saving measures into home-building, manufacturing and other sectors of the economy…[H]alf a dozen economic reports over the last 18 months from the state, industrial groups, academics and environmentalists…[draw] contradictory conclusions."

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"Implementing the law is expected to raise utilities' cost of burning coal, oil and gas…The industry report asserts that moving a third of the state's electricity sources to renewables would boost prices to consumers and industry by 11%, but the air board's analysis found that new energy efficiency rules would lead to a net 4.5% drop in overall spending on fuel by 2020…Businesses also are upset over…a cap-and-trade program that would set a ceiling on emissions and allow industries to trade [auctioned] permits…The air board is considering a proposal to return three-fourths of the auction income to consumers to offset higher costs.

"The new report shows a slightly less positive impact on growth, per capita income and jobs than did a [economist-criticized] September 2008 report by the air board staff…The new report, which takes account of the current economic downturn, concludes that California's gross state product will grow to $2.5 trillion over the next decade, only 0.2% less than it would without the climate law. Jobs will grow to 18.4 million -- 0.1% more than without the law…[S]ome industries, such as fossil-fuel-burning utilities, mining and energy-intensive manufacturing like cement plants, could be hard hit…Others more allied with a green economy are expected to prosper…"